Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
149 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening with the highest threat being between the lines of Rolla to
Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to Greensburg to Great Bend.

- Wind and hail will be the main concern initially, becoming more of
a wind threat as the storms form into a line. An isolated tornado
can not be ruled out

- A sight chance of severe storms will be possible across south
central and central Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Wind and hail will be
the main concern with these storms

- Temperatures around 100 degrees are expected Today and
along the KS/OK border tomorrow afternoon

- A wet and cooler pattern expected this weekend into the first
  part of next week

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Cumulus clouds and initial storm development have started across
southeastern Colorado and far western Kansas over the last few hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to intensify in this area by 20Z then
spread eastward for the next few hours thereafter. These initial
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
Short range models then depict these storms to congeal into a line
of thunderstorms as they trek eastward. This is when the main threat
will become damaging winds. SPC continues an enhanced threat of
severe wind gust at or above 75 mph between the lines of Rolla to
Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to Greensburg to Great Bend. In
addition, if any storms develop in front of this line a supercell
could form and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Instability
values of CAPE 2000+ J/kg and wind shear 30+ knots will be found
across western western Kansas with ample moisture at the lower
levels of the atmosphere. This will help these storms survive into
the evening hours. Storms are then expected to weaken after 10pm as
they head closer to central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The main concern with the forecast will once again be the severe
threat and the temperatures soaring to around 100 degrees today and
tomorrow.

The synoptic pattern can be described as an upper level trough over
the Intermountain west today, shifting eastward into the Plains
tomorrow into Thursday. Upper level shortwaves will move around the
periphery of this trough and towards the Central Plains this
afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Upper level zonal west to
east flow is then expected Thursday night through this weekend with
an upper level trough digging into the Plains late weekend into the
early part of next week.

For the actual forecast, high based thunderstorms are expected to
form across southeastern Colorado this afternoon then congeal into a
line of storms as they trek eastward across the CWA. Large hail and
damaging winds are expected initially, then turn into more of a wind
threat as they form into a line and head east. An isolated tornado
can not be ruled out, especially if any storms form ahead of this
line. SPC has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms
between the lines of Rolla to Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to
Greensburg to Great Bend. This is where they believe some of the
storms could produce wind gusts at or above 75 mph. CAM models then
show these storms weakening late evening as they approach central
Kansas. Before these storms develop, expect strong southerly winds
this afternoon with highs reaching to around 100 degrees across the
entire CWA. Heat indices may approach 105 degrees across our eastern
zones this afternoon and a heat advisory was issued to account for
this.

After the storms move through or dissipate, expect cloudiness to
decrease overnight with mostly clear skies expected throughout the
day tomorrow. Winds will continue to be breezy and out of a
southerly direction overnight, shifting to the north behind a cold
front across the western half of the CWA after sunrise tomorrow.
This cold front will then move through the remainder of the CWA
tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow are progged to reach into the 90s
with the exception of along the KS/OK border where highs around 100
degrees will be found.

A few thunderstorms may form along the cold front late afternoon into
evening hours. The atmosphere ahead of the cold front will be very
unstable and any storms that do form will have the capability of
becoming severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concern with these storms. Storms should move out of the area
tomorrow evening with mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected
overnight through Thursday. Winds will become light and variable
behind the front tomorrow afternoon then shift to a southerly
direction tomorrow night. Mid range models show another cold front
moving through the area Thursday shifting winds back to the north.
As for temperatures, lows tomorrow night will range from around 60
degrees across west central Kansas to upper 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Thursday look to range from the mid 80s across west
central Kansas to mid 90s across south central Kansas.

For the remainder of the forecast expect dry conditions Friday with
increased precipitation chances Friday night through the early part
of next week. Extended models show the possibility of an MCS or two
moving through the Plains sometime this weekend into the first part
of next week.  Future model runs will need to be watched to get a
better sense of timing and intensity. Temperatures during this time
frame will start out with highs around 90 Friday, mid to upper 90s
Saturday, then mid 70s to mid 80s Sunday into the first part of next
week. Lows look to fluctuate between the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with mostly clear
skies. Thunderstorms are expected to move across the TAF sites
this evening bringing the possibility of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. VFR conditions then return for the rest of the
night into tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south
gusting to over 30 knots this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.

&&

UPDATE...Hovorka_42
DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
325 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

KSZ074-075-084-085-092115-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
325 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MORTON...GRANT...WESTERN STEVENS
AND STANTON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles northeast of
Richfield to near Elkhart. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Richfield around 330 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ulysses and Big
Bow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 10204 3773 10203 3773 10110 3705 10140
      3699 10191 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 211DEG 32KT 3737 10161 3703 10193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
356 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

KSZ043-044-063-092130-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-
356 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...EASTERN
SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Scott City to 8 miles
northeast of Garden City. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Manning and Grigston around 405 PM CDT.
  Healy and Amy around 415 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10046 3815 10030 3800 10088 3854 10097
      3870 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 236DEG 33KT 3848 10088 3807 10077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
429 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

KSZ084-092215-
Morton KS-
429 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MORTON COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Feterita to 11 miles
west of Elkhart. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rolla around 435 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 10204 3738 10156 3699 10156 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 235DEG 38KT 3721 10150 3700 10210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
435 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Hail             4 NW Cave               37.40N 101.21W
06/09/2026  M1.00 Inch       Grant              KS   Public

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SW Ingalls            37.74N 100.56W
06/09/2026  M60 MPH          Gray               KS   Public

            Ambient Weather Network station.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Pierceville        37.92N 100.72W
06/09/2026  M58 MPH          Finney             KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KGCK Garden City.

&&

AS