Heat Advisory 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages/Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and
  evening, with strong to severe wind gusts of 50-70 mph the
  primary risk.

- Very hot afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures
  near 100 both days.

- A dry cold front Thursday morning will bring north winds and
  milder temperatures Thursday.

- Chances for showers, thunderstorms and more beneficial rain
  are expected to increase over the coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Radar and satellite imagery depicted an intense MCS diving
southeast through central Kansas. Outflow from this complex was
evident on radar passing south through SW KS. Despite high
instability and boundary layer moisture, the SW KS DDC CWA has
been protected from severe storms today by a strong capping
inversion. 00z DDC sounding measured 15.5C at 700 mb, and this
elevated mixed layer squashed any attempt at convection in SW KS
Monday. Winds are variable in direction currently, but will
trend light southeasterly through sunrise. With continued
moisture advection, temperatures will struggle to fall below 70
at many locations Tuesday morning.

After 10 am Tuesday, southwest winds will increase, averaging
20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. Models show unidirectional
SWly flow through the lower troposphere most of Tuesday.
With 850 mb temperatures in the 28-29C range, downslope
compression will send temperatures soaring to near 100 all
locations by 4 pm. Slightly drier air is projected Tuesday,
which should keep heat indices across the southeast zones just
below heat advisory criteria (105).

00z NAM forecasts a 996 mb surface cyclone near Syracuse at 4 pm
Tuesday as the next shortwave approaches in SWly midlevel flow
aloft. Strong instability will be present by afternoon, with
CAPE near 3000 J/kg projected. Models show strong forcing for
ascent ahead of Tuesday's wave, timed well with the diurnal
heating cycle. Unlike Monday, convection initiation should be
much easier Tuesday, with rapid development expected across
western zones around 4 pm. Any high based supercells may produce
hail initially, but a strong trend to linear segments/bows in an
inverted-v environment will support severe outflow wind gusts as
the primary risk, along with areas of blowing dust especially
western zones. NBM pops have increased across western zones for
Tuesday on this update, and this trend was accepted. SPC 15%
wind probabilities and conditional intensity are appropriate,
with higher wind probability possibly required.

The heat will continue Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures
again near 100. A dry cold front will race through SW KS
Thursday morning, followed by north winds Thursday ushering in
noticeably milder temperatures in the 80s. There may be a
thunderstorm in the southeast zones on this front Wednesday
evening, but most locations will be dry.

Friday appears dry with seasonable temperatures. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to return over the upcoming weekend,
and NBM pops continue to trend upward through this timeframe.
One or more MCSs in this pattern will likely continue to chip
away at the SW KS drought.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Current
variable winds will trend light southeast overnight through
12z Tue. VFR/SKC or scattered midlevel clouds are expected
overnight. After 15z Tue, SW winds will increase at all
airports, gusting near 30 kts. Winds will back more southerly
and remain strong/elevated through 00z Wed. Models suggest a
line of thunderstorms may impact all of the airports during the
00-03z Wed time frame, with outflow wind gusts near 50 kts the
primary risk. For now, included VCTS/CB mention in all TAFs, but
convective TEMPO groups are expected to be required.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner