Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance for severe thunderstorms today across southwest
  Kansas. Main hazards through sunset will be wind gusts of 70
  mph or higher and hail 2 inches or larger. After sunset the
  hail threat will decrease but strong damaging and locally
  heavy rainfall will continue to accompany these storms.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
  and Wednesday, mainly west of highway 283. Heavy rainfall,
  hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards both day.

- Heavy rainfall potential during the first half of the work
  week may result in localized urban and small stream flooding
  risks.

&&

**.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...**
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

At 230pm this afternoon the CAP across southwest Kansas
continues or already eroded as temperatures climb into the mid
90s. CU and even a few showers have already been struggling to
develop across west central and north central Kansas. At this
time it appears that few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
after 4pm with a better chance for storms to develop after 6pm
as an upper level wave approaches. 18z DDC Dcape >1300 so any
storm that does develop this afternoon will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds. Also as storm develop along an
instability axis west of Garden City there will also be a chance
for large hail to be possible given the forecast shear of 30-40
knots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moist southeasterly upslope flow persists across western Kansas
today. Short term models forecast improving low level forcing
along a surface boundary that will extended from northeast
Colorado into south central Kansas during the afternoon.
Increasing 0-1 km frontogenesis and an axis of late day
instability along/near this boundary will support afternoon
thunderstorm development as an upper level trough approaches.
Severe weather is possible, with the highest confidence of this
occurring after 4 PM MDT/5 PM CDT over northeast Colorado and
west central Kansas. Further east isolated strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out but may struggle given the warm
temperatures aloft. The risk for severe weather will increase
after 7pm this evening across all of southwest Kansas as what
thunderstorms that do develop near the Colorado border move
east southeast along the moist/instability axis that will extend
into south central Kansas. Primary hazards through this evening
include damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large 2 inch hail.
After sunset it appears that the hail risk will diminish and the
main hazards will transition to strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

These afternoon thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage as they move east southeast across southwest Kansas
overnight. Based on the forecast location of the mid level
baroclinic zone and moisture/instability axis it currently
appears the most favorable area for the severe storm potential
will be highest extend near and north of a line extending
Garden City and Syracuse to Dodge City to Pratt/Medicine Lodge.
Again the main hazards tonight will be strong gusty winds +70
mph and heavy rainfall. Currently, there is a 40% chance these
storms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts greater
than 0.5 inch but locally higher amounts will be likely.

On Tuesday any lingering convection east of Highway 283 will
end by noon. The surface boundary will be pushed further south,
closer to the Oklahoma border, due to overnight convection and
ongoing moisture upslope flow persisting north of this boundary.
Gulf moisture transport will also be improving across western
Kansas on Tuesday, given by increasing southerly low level flow
developing west of a surface to 500 mb high moving toward the
Ohio Valley. While confidence in the exact location of our
surface boundary is low at this time, this frontal boundary will
be the main focus area for scattered afternoon thunderstorms as
an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest.
Currently it appears the CAMS are clustering this boundary
between Liberal and Garden City late day. Despite marginal shear
(weaker than today), a few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible given the mid level instability
and low-level forcing. Main hazards include hail up to quarter
size and wind gusts of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may become a
significant issue given PWAT values exceeding 1.25 inches, which
is well above seasonal climatological means.

On Wednesday, similar conditions will persist across southwest
Kansas as moisture continues to spread into the area and a
surface boundary will be situated across portions of the area
ahead of a more significant upper level trough. Shear remains
marginal, though moderate instability is still expected. Slower
storm motion is anticipated due to mean 700-500 mb winds
decreasing to less than 20 knots. This environment continues to
support marginal severe weather, but the heavy rainfall and
possible isolated flooding issues may be increasing in some
areas given slow storm motion and high precipitation efficiency.
Repeated cell training over identical corridors introduces
localized urban and small stream flooding risks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail early this afternoon with isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms possible. After 21z today
convection will begin to increase in coverage near and west of
the Garden City area. Tonight ceilings will thicken and lower
overnight as scattered thunderstorms increases in coverage
across southwest Kansas. Storms are currently expected to affect
the Garden City area through 03Z Tuesday, then cross the Dodge
City and Hays areas between 03Z and 09Z Tuesday. These storms
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall, resulting in periods of lower visibility as they
pass. Prior to the storms, gusty southeast winds are forecast
at 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Burgert
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020645-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
135 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 /1235 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening across
much of western Kansas. Main threat will be large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Marginal risk for severe weather along and west of highway 283
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
408 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ043-044-012145-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
408 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND WEST
CENTRAL LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grigston, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Grigston around 415 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10062 3856 10048 3828 10067 3832 10090
      3860 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 211DEG 16KT 3843 10072

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
440 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ044-012215-
Lane KS-
440 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM CDT...

At 440 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Amy, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lane
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 10033 3826 10043 3827 10057 3842 10053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 200DEG 10KT 3830 10052

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ043-012215-
Scott KS-
447 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scott City, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Scott State Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Scott State Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10069 3864 10069 3848 10086 3851 10098
      3870 10099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 199DEG 16KT 3855 10091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT