Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance for severe thunderstorms today across southwest
  Kansas. Main hazards through sunset will be wind gusts of 70
  mph or higher and hail 2 inches or larger. After sunset the
  hail threat will decrease but strong damaging and locally
  heavy rainfall will continue to accompany these storms.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
  and Wednesday, mainly west of highway 283. Heavy rainfall,
  hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards both day.

- Heavy rainfall potential during the first half of the work
  week may result in localized urban and small stream flooding
  risks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moist southeasterly upslope flow persists across western Kansas
today. Short term models forecast improving low level forcing
along a surface boundary that will extended from northeast
Colorado into south central Kansas during the afternoon.
Increasing 0-1 km frontogenesis and an axis of late day
instability along/near this boundary will support afternoon
thunderstorm development as an upper level trough approaches.
Severe weather is possible, with the highest confidence of this
occurring after 4 PM MDT/5 PM CDT over northeast Colorado and
west central Kansas. Further east isolated strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out but may struggle given the warm
temperatures aloft. The risk for severe weather will increase
after 7pm this evening across all of southwest Kansas as what
thunderstorms that do develop near the Colorado border move
east southeast along the moist/instability axis that will extend
into south central Kansas. Primary hazards through this evening
include damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large 2 inch hail.
After sunset it appears that the hail risk will diminish and the
main hazards will transition to strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

These afternoon thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage as they move east southeast across southwest Kansas
overnight. Based on the forecast location of the mid level
baroclinic zone and moisture/instability axis it currently
appears the most favorable area for the severe storm potential
will be highest extend near and north of a line extending
Garden City and Syracuse to Dodge City to Pratt/Medicine Lodge.
Again the main hazards tonight will be strong gusty winds +70
mph and heavy rainfall. Currently, there is a 40% chance these
storms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts greater
than 0.5 inch but locally higher amounts will be likely.

On Tuesday any lingering convection east of Highway 283 will
end by noon. The surface boundary will be pushed further south,
closer to the Oklahoma border, due to overnight convection and
ongoing moisture upslope flow persisting north of this boundary.
Gulf moisture transport will also be improving across western
Kansas on Tuesday, given by increasing southerly low level flow
developing west of a surface to 500 mb high moving toward the
Ohio Valley. While confidence in the exact location of our
surface boundary is low at this time, this frontal boundary will
be the main focus area for scattered afternoon thunderstorms as
an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest.
Currently it appears the CAMS are clustering this boundary
between Liberal and Garden City late day. Despite marginal shear
(weaker than today), a few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible given the mid level instability
and low-level forcing. Main hazards include hail up to quarter
size and wind gusts of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may become a
significant issue given PWAT values exceeding 1.25 inches, which
is well above seasonal climatological means.

On Wednesday, similar conditions will persist across southwest
Kansas as moisture continues to spread into the area and a
surface boundary will be situated across portions of the area
ahead of a more significant upper level trough. Shear remains
marginal, though moderate instability is still expected. Slower
storm motion is anticipated due to mean 700-500 mb winds
decreasing to less than 20 knots. This environment continues to
support marginal severe weather, but the heavy rainfall and
possible isolated flooding issues may be increasing in some
areas given slow storm motion and high precipitation efficiency.
Repeated cell training over identical corridors introduces
localized urban and small stream flooding risks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. The short term concern is the
developing thunderstorm complex that is expected to roll across
the terminals later this evening. The best timing is between 01Z
and 06Z according to the HRRR. These storms may produce strong
outflow winds that could be 50+ kt. Will have to watch local
radar trends and amend as needed once the severity of the wind
magnitude becomes more clear. Locally reduced visibility
associated with heavy rainfall is also a distinct possibility in
the TSRA. Outside of the storms, winds will be SE 10-20 kt with
gusts in the 20s. There is a chance of storms tomorrow, but
this is towards the end of the TAF pd and will not mention for
now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020645-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
135 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 /1235 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening across
much of western Kansas. Main threat will be large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Marginal risk for severe weather along and west of highway 283
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
507 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ061-062-074-012230-
Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
507 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HAMILTON...NORTHWESTERN KEARNY
AND NORTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT/430 PM MDT/...

At 506 PM CDT/406 PM MDT/, the public reported a strong thunderstorm
near Syracuse, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Public. A personal weather station measured 54 mph in
         Coolidge.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse and Coolidge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10148 3819 10126 3751 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 210DEG 16KT 3803 10175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ043-044-012245-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
513 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND
NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scott State Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Scott
and northwestern Lane Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Scott State Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 10085 3857 10103 3870 10095 3870 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 210DEG 16KT 3858 10088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
523 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             8 S Dighton             38.37N 100.47W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Lane               KS   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ061-062-012315-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
531 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND KEARNY
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT/515 PM MDT/...

At 531 PM CDT/431 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of
strong thunderstorms 9 miles northeast of Kendall, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hamilton and Kearny Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10140 3826 10112 3788 10110 3788 10162
      3826 10167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 258DEG 28KT 3806 10146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     Hail             2 S Amy                 38.45N 100.60W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Lane               KS   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

KSZ043-044-012315-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
549 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND
NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm near Scott
State Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Public. At 539 PM CDT, public reported dime sized hail 8
         miles north of Scott City.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Scott
and northwestern Lane Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10053 3859 10086 3867 10095 3870 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 239DEG 15KT 3864 10081

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT