Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
439 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intensely hot afternoons will continue through Wednesday, with
  temperatures well above 100 each day.

- The heat is expected to relax with improved rainfall
  opportunities late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level high
centered across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee
side trough of low pressure extends northeast across southeast
Colorado into northwest Kansas.

Another round of minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (20%)
exists across west central Kansas into extreme southwest Kansas
this evening with the SREF indicating little change in the
overall pattern from yesterday with H5 vort maxima associated
with a weak shortwave ejecting eastward out of the northern
Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface,
prevailing southerlies will continue to support some moisture
return across the area, providing minimal instability with
MUCAPE values upward of 500 J/kg or so. With steepening mid-
level lapse rates, isolated thunderstorm development cannot be
ruled out toward early evening as ejecting H5 vort maxima
interact with an axis of low level convergence associated with
the aforementioned trough extending from extreme southeast
Colorado into northwest Kansas. A few CAMs suggest this while
the HREF hints at it with 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding
only 0.1 of an inch across west central Kansas into extreme
southwest Kansas by late evening. A secondary focus will be more
into central Kansas later this evening, including the I-70
corridor, as thunderstorms likely developing in a field of much
higher instability in northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska track
eastward overnight. Similar conditions are forecast Monday into
Tuesday with little change to the larger scale pattern.

Very warm temperatures are forecast again tonight as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central
Kansas. Considering the HREF paints a widespread 70-90% probability
of temperatures dropping below 80F, look for lows generally in the
70s(F). With a persistent pattern in place, expect afternoon highs
back up around 100 to 105F Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with scattered
cirrus at times. Radar at 2130z Sun depicted weak high-based
convection again well northwest of GCK. This activity is
expected to remain NW of GCK, and made no mention in this set
of TAFs. Strong southwest winds gusting near 30 kts as of 2130z
Sun will diminish some after 02z Mon and back more southerly,
but remain elevated with gusts 20-25 kts through much of the
night. Light southwest winds will prevail briefly around
sunrise, before strong southwest winds resume once again after
15z Mon, gusting near 30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

KSZ061-092215-
Hamilton KS-
330 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM MDT...

At 325 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles south of Tribune
to 8 miles south of Coolidge. Movement was southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, blowing dust, and dry lightning

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Blowing dust could locally reduce
         visibility. Dry lightning leading to grassland fires.

Locations impacted include...
  Syracuse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 10205 3826 10193 3826 10154 3774 10192
      3782 10204 3792 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 317DEG 6KT 3827 10169 3792 10199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

KSZ043-092245-
Scott KS-
455 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SCOTT COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Modoc to 12 miles west of
Shallow Water. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, blowing dust, and dry lightning

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Blowing dust could locally reduce
         visibility. Dry lightning leading to grassland fires.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Modoc around 500 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Scott City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10075 3835 10073 3833 10112 3868 10113
      3870 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 260DEG 14KT 3859 10114 3836 10114

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

KSZ061-062-092245-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
513 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT/445 PM MDT/...

At 512 PM CDT/412 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 16 miles south of Tribune, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibility. Dry lightning strikes may pose a wildfire risk.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Hamilton
and northwestern Kearny Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 10194 3826 10183 3826 10121 3793 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 288DEG 16KT 3824 10167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

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