Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms favoring western zones, west of US
  Highway 283, Thursday evening. Strong to severe outflow winds
  are again the primary threat.

- Friday and Independence Day will feature hot afternoons, with
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening and
  Saturday night, some of which may impact Fourth of July
  fireworks displays. Marginally severe wind and hail are
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted the persistent
moisture plume across central Kansas, with midlevel clouds
persisting over the eastern zones. Mesoanalysis showed
instability quickly growing across western zones, already near
3000 J/kg, where strong insolation was working on a moist
boundary layer. As lee cyclogenesis strengthens to near 998 mb
near Denver this afternoon, south to southeast winds will
increase this afternoon/evening, gusting as high as 40 mph.

With a very strong midlevel anticyclone stationary over the
eastern U.S., the repetitive convective pattern we have seen the
past 2 days, will repeat again this evening. 12z ARW/NAM/RRFS
are in good agreement suggesting thunderstorms developing again
west of US 83 to near the Colorado border 4-7 pm. It is during
this late afternoon period in which temporary supercell
structures may produce hail 1-2 inches in diameter west of
US 83. Bulk shear is not expected to be strong enough to
maintain supercells for long, with upscale growth into another
complex through this evening. Latest iterations of the HRRR show
damaging wind potential into the north central counties after
7 pm. After coordination with SPC, severe wind probability was
increased to 15%/slight risk on the 1630z outlook. Pops were
also increased significantly into the likely category for
western and central zones. Strong instability and a hot deeply
mixed boundary layer will support wind gusts of 60-70 mph from
the strongest linear segments into this evening, with this risk
highest northwest of Dodge City once again.

Stagnant upper air pattern over North America begins changing
Friday, as the upper high over the east weakens, and a new upper
high takes over near New Mexico. Friday will be plenty hot,
easily into the upper 90s, with elevated/strong south winds yet
again. Most of Friday will be dry for most, but GFS and a few
CAMs do suggest thunderstorm initiation focusing on the
northeast/east zones this time. Uncertainty in this summer
pattern forces pops to be rather low.

Independence Day will be hot as a firecracker, with afternoon
temperatures of 95-100 common, as shown by NBM. GFS/MEX appears
1-3 degrees too hot, given moist soils and healthy vegetation
greenup. Most of the holiday will be dry, but there is a
stronger convective signal for Saturday evening, that may impact
fireworks displays. A weak frontal boundary will sag south
across Kansas Saturday, as a shortwave arrives on the northeast
periphery of the new upper high over New Mexico. Current
thinking is this will focus scattered thunderstorms over the
northeast zones, northeast of Dodge City, Saturday evening.
Effective shear and instability will support storm organization,
especially with the composite boundary nearby, per SPC Day 3.

Temperatures should be trimmed several degrees Sunday behind the
weak frontal boundary. A nondescript pattern typical of summer
is expected Monday through Wednesday, with typical afternoon
heat in the 90s. Global models show 500 mb heights not becoming
excessive, near 590 dm, so triple digit heat should be limited,
and heat advisories appear unlikely east. Models do show
southeast winds maintaining moisture through early next week,
keeping at least isolated thunderstorms possible at peak heating
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A
line of storms will move out of southeast Colorado into western
Kansas this evening and could lead to VCTS for GCK airport
between 00-03Z and HYS at 02-04Z. Main threat could be downburst
winds of 50 kts or greater. Storms should end around 04Z. Winds
will stay breezy through the time period with 15-20 kt sustained
and 25 kt gusts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro