Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected across portions of
  southwest Kansas this evening.

- Seasonable temperatures likely through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough shifting
slowly east into the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side
trough of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado.

A very similar setup to yesterday exists again today with very
little change to the broad scale troughing pattern situated across
the Intermountain West. Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick back up
this evening with the SREF indicating another series of H5 vort
maxima associated with an upper level shortwave ejecting northeast
out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. With steepening mid-level lapse rates
and ample instability in place with MUCAPE values upward of 2500
to 3000 J/kg, thunderstorm development is expected across
southeast Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle late this
afternoon as said H5 vort maxima interact with a quasi-stationary
dryline attendant to a developing/strengthening surface low with
storms then spreading northeast into southwest Kansas this evening.
The latest CAMs and HREF suggest this by indicating a 30-50%
probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across portions
of southwest Kansas by late evening. A similar set up is forecast
Thursday.

More seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight, especially with
expected rain cooled air and outflow boundaries about. With the HREF
showing a 80-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 70F in
extreme southwest Kansas to only a 10% probability of slipping below
70F in south central Kansas, expect lows in the 60s and 70s(F) with
the coolest temperatures out west. Look for highs to remain generally
in the 90s(F) through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the
Kansas-Colorado border between 22-23Z. This line will move
through southwest Kansas this evening and affect the GCK, LBL,
and DDC terminals between 01-05Z and HYS between 03-06Z.
Downburst wind threats and a sharp directional change to the
northwest are the main threats as wind gusts could approach 50
kts with the strongest storms. Storms should exit by 06Z and VFR
flight category is expected for the rest of the time period.
Surface wind speeds between 15-00Z Thursday are forecast to
increase to 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
652 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

KSZ061-020130-
Hamilton KS-
652 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM MDT...

At 652 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Coolidge, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Hamilton County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 10204 3826 10194 3826 10192 3807 10168
      3791 10204 3792 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 222DEG 20KT 3802 10201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
821 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

KSZ061-062-020145-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
821 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

At 821 PM CDT/721 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles north of Syracuse, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hamilton and northwestern Kearny Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 10196 3827 10185 3826 10143 3804 10183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 235DEG 29KT 3817 10182

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
850 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

KSZ061-062-020215-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
850 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HAMILTON AND WESTERN
KEARNY COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT/815 PM MDT/...

At 850 PM CDT/750 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles southwest of Syracuse, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Syracuse around 805 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 10185 3793 10204 3823 10183 3804 10149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 217DEG 21KT 3793 10189

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER