Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
718 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up across portions of
  southwest Kansas this evening.

- Seasonable temperatures likely through the end of the week.

&&

.Update...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**

The bottom line: the severe threat continues for the next few hours.

We have received a few wind reports around 60 mph thunderstorm wind
gusts so far. The line of storms has thickened and intensified recently
as the storms interact with dewpoints around 70F and significant
CAPE. Our 00Z RAOB measured CAPE as high as 4800 J/kg in association
with significant boundary layer moisture. There is still a drier
layer between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, which indicates a thermo profile
that is conducive for microbursts. In fact, DCAPE has increased to
1074 J/kg downstream of the storms in between the 18Z and 00Z RAOBs.
Mesoscale models like the HRRR and WoFS indicate these storms will
continue to move E to NE and the threat of severe storms will continue
for the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of a deepening upper level trough
shifting slowly east into the Four Corners Region. Near the surface,
a stalled frontal boundary extends from extreme southwest Kansas
northeastward into north central Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up this evening with the SREF
indicating an embedded upper level shortwave lifting northeast
through the Four Corners Region into the northern Colorado Rockies
late this afternoon. In response, developing low pressure in vicinity
of extreme southeast Colorado is projected to strengthen as it begins
to lift slowly north, dislodging the aforementioned boundary in
southwest Kansas northward. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead
of a retreating dryline will help enhance moisture advection into
central and much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing
well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F, providing ample instability
with MUCAPE values upward of 2500 to 3000 J/kg. In conjunction with
steepening mid-level lapse rates late this afternoon, H5 vort maxima
ejecting northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the high plains
of eastern Colorado will interact with the dryline, triggering
thunderstorm development. Storms are then expected to spread northeast
through extreme southwest Kansas this evening. This is supported
by CAMs and the latest HREF showing a 50-70% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch in a southwest-northeast axis across
extreme southwest Kansas with lesser amounts to the east into central
Kansas by late evening. Similar conditions are forecast Wednesday
with little change to the overall pattern expected.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for tonight once again as
prevailing southerlies continue to reinforce a warmer air mass
across the area, not to mention surface dewpoints holding in the
60s(F) to near 70F. Expect lows generally down into the 70s(F).
Look for afternoon highs back up into the 90s(F) Wednesday with the
HREF painting a widespread 80-90% probability of temperatures topping
90F. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado and the western
Oklahoma Panhandle will move northeast through southwest Kansas
this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites
generally after 01-03Z. Otherwise, expected mainly VFR conditions
through early Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to around 30kt are forecast to persist through much of the
period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in
eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Sugden
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Syracuse            38.00N 101.75W
06/30/2026  M62 MPH          Hamilton           KS   AWOS

            AWOS station K3K3 Syracuse.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     22 NNW Lakin            38.25N 101.38W
06/30/2026  M59 MPH          Kearny             KS   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lakin                   37.94N 101.26W
06/30/2026  E65 MPH          Kearny             KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 S Kendall            37.79N 101.53W
06/30/2026  E59 MPH          Hamilton           KS   Mesonet

&&

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