Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
216 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for eastern Wyoming and all of
  western Nebraska Tuesday through late Wednesday, with critical
  fire weather conditions likely extending through late in the
  week.

- High Wind Watches in effect for the southeast Wyoming wind
  prones early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A windy day persists across the area with strong south to southwest
flow ahead of an approaching trough. Earlier, sites across the
Arlington area were hitting high wind criteria, so went ahead and
issued a short-fuse High Wind Warning through this evening to cover
gusts to 60 MPH. Arlington, however, won't be the only location to
see wind today. Places east of the Laramie Range have already seen a
few wind gusts over 50 MPH. The wind threat will increase this
afternoon as the upper-level trough enters the CWA. This will
generate enough lift for scattered shower and storm development a
bit later in the day. However, given the extremely dry low and mid-
level, model soundings show deep inverted-v profiles. This means
DCAPE values exceeding 1300 J/kg, especially in the Nebraska
panhandle, resulting in a severe wind threat. With PWs much lower
today, not much precipitation is anticipated to make it to the
surface. With a bit of elevated instability present, cannot rule out
a dry lightning threat in any storms or gusty showers that develop.
The wind threat will diminish later this evening as showers and
storms move out of the area.

The wind returns again tomorrow, with another round of High Wind
headlines for the wind prones. High Wind Watches are in effect
starting early Wednesday morning as a strong cold front moves across
the area. MSLP gradients as well as 700 mb height gradients will
steepen, causing winds aloft to increase up to 55 kts. With strong
downward omegas also in place, these winds could make it down to the
surface. In-house guidance shows a 40 to 50 percent chance of high
winds occurring, so went with a Watch for now since we are out of
high wind season. However, if high winds occurred today, then
confidence is pretty high for them occurring tomorrow with the
better set up. Will also have to keep an eye on the rest of
Carbon County for high winds later in the day on Wednesday. With
subsidence across the area, precipitation chances are not
expected as mostly sunny skies dominate the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Thursday starts off chilly following the passage of a cold front.
Temperatures in the interior basins are progged to be in the mid to
upper 30s. On the high plains lows in the mid 40s and 50s can be
expected. The prevailing flow out of the northwest should keep high
temperatures slightly below average Thursday. An upper level
shortwave will be passing overhead during the day, however without
any significant sources of moisture this feature will not cause much
in the way of weather. The afternoon hours will once again see
humidity values drop into the teens with widespread gusty
conditions. A continuation of elevated fire weather conditions will
likely spill over into Friday. Overnight recoveries are poor at 35-
50 percent along the foothills and basins. Afternoon humidities may
plummet into the single digits area wide. Winds look concerning over
the basins where gusts of 25-40 mph will exaggerate fire conditions
when combined with the very low humidities. Temperatures also are a
little toasty with a good portion of the Nebraska Panhandle reaching
the 90s.

Saturday features a return flow with southeastern winds. There may
be enough moisture with this return flow to alleviate critical fire
conditions, though they remain elevated. A few storms could develop
in the southern parts of the CWA and spreading into the mountain
basins Sunday and Sunday. There is not much of a signal for severe
weather in the long term. Between Sunday and Monday a cold front may
push its way through, though at this range there is considerable
spread in timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period. Gusty winds, if not already occurring, will continue
or increase for all sites by 19Z with southwest to west gusts 30 to
45 knots, with a few isolated areas that may gust a bit higher. Due
to low confidence, kept any mention of thunderstorm activity out of
the TAFs. However, there is the slight chance of a storm and/or
shower which may come near a terminal, best chances are across
the Nebraska Panhandle. If a storm or showers crosses over or
comes very near a site, expect gusty and erratic winds along
with lowering of CIGs and VIS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ417-418-
     430>433.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for WYZ106-116.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ110.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening
     for WYZ110.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NEZ434>437.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ

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