Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
616 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is possible
  Monday for eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, with
  all severe hazards possible.

- Expect a quick cool down on Monday before a quick warmup on
  Tuesday, and then temperatures moderate through the end of
  the week though still around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the eastern high plains of
  southeast Wyoming and all of western Nebraska Tuesday through
  late Wednesday, with critical fire weather conditions likely
  extending through late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Severe weather will once again be possible this afternoon for areas
east of the Laramie Range. Model soundings show a favorable
environment for all modes of severe weather with large hail, severe
wind gusts and an isolated tornado all possible this afternoon
and evening. Flash flooding also cannot be ruled out with high
PWs over the Nebraska panhandle. Radar already shows a few
storms over Albany County going up where a cumulus field
developed. The uncapped environment here quickly led to the
development of a few stronger updrafts with some small hail. As
these storms progress eastward, they will enter a less favorable
environment with less SBCAPE and shear, so they will likely
weaken an fall apart. Mesoscale analysis as well as model
soundings show a more favorable environment east of the Laramie
Range around mid to late afternoon. Soundings from the GFS still
indicate a strong capping inversion around 18Z that will first
need to erode away. Hi-Res guidance like the HRRR also seems to
be catching on to this, showing convection developing a little
later in the day with each new run.

Once the cap erodes and convection can actually get going, the
environment shows both good instability and shear. Model soundings
show MUCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE with about 45 kts of
effective shear. These parameters along with steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a large hail threat for areas east of the Laramie
Range. Severe wind gusts will be a secondary threat in some of the
stronger storms with DCAPE approaching 900 J/kg. Cannot rule out an
isolated tornado or two as MLCAPE reaches about 1500 J/kg by this
evening with the favorable shear. As previously mentioned, flash
flooding could be possible with PWs around an inch in the Nebraska
panhandle. Luckily, cloud layer winds are fairly fast so storms
shouldn't sit in any one area for too long. While convection is
already occurring and will continue for the next several hours,
Hi-Res guidance has delayed the timing of severe storms, making
the most likely window between about 6 PM and 10 PM this
evening. Once storms move out later this evening, it will be a
calm overnight.

Even though a strong trough will push into Wyoming on Tuesday, the
weather will be a bit quieter compared to Monday. Ahead of the
trough, southwest flow will dominate the low and mid-levels.
Southwest flow will advect hot and dry desert air into the CWA. 700
mb temperatures will climb to about +14C which is roughly the 90th
percentile of NAEFS climatology. This will lead to quite a hot day,
mainly for areas east of the Laramie Range. High temperatures here
will reach the upper 80s and 90s. These hot temperatures will help
dry out the eastern portions of the CWA, with relative humidity
dropping as low as the single digits. With the incoming trough, a
250 mb jet will move into the CWA creating windy conditions. This
combination of dry and windy conditions will lead to fire weather
conditions. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch in effect was
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. The trough could also trigger
some shower and storm development across the CWA. Given the very
dry low and mid-levels, gusty showers with severe wind gusts
are possible. Dry lightning will also be possible, given a few
hundred joules of elevated CAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The long term forecast appears dry with a switch in the flow regime
from southerly flow to a more westerly. This is due to a persistent
upper level trough pattern to our north into Canada. A cold front
Wednesday will effectively cut us off from the more moist air that
has been advecting in from the Gulf. During this period we are
watching for conditions favorable for fire weather and high winds.

The high wind conditions spill over from Tuesday as flow at the 700
mb level stays elevated. The GFS is projecting winds at this level
at around 50 knots. As daytime mixing commences the risk of these
winds being mixed to the surface increases. Additionally enhancement
by mountain wave breaking is likely to occur. Taking a horizontal
cross section across our west to east ranges depict downsloping
winds approaching 55 knots during the late morning to early
afternoon hours collocated in areas of negative omega. Higher gusts
are certainly possible given the low resolution of global models.
This is not a great combination with the expected low relative
humidities values. Across most of the area values are expected to
plummet below 15 percent and temperatures in the 70s to high 80s.
This is following previous poor nighttime recoveries of about 40-50
percent.

Going into Thursday and beyond, winds start to calm down after the
departure of the mid level shortwave and ridging builds in. As
mentioned our source of moisture has been cut off by the prevailing
synoptic pattern, so humidity values remain very low. Winds are
likely to remain high enough to warrant continued fire weather
products through just about the entirety of the long term. Saturday
and Sunday may see enough moisture and a source of lift from a
clipper type system to support a few storms. Both GFS and Euro are
on board with this solution with the usual caveat being that at
this range solutions will change. If you are looking for any bit of
good news past the long term, the latest CPC outlook has our area in
below average temperatures and increased precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Primarily VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period
with the exception of any terminals in the vicinity of any of the
heavier showers and thunderstorms. Areas of heavier rain will lower
CIGs to MVFR criteria, mainly for the Nebraska terminals where
surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s. Can also expect
visibilities to briefly decrease to 3SM, with the potential for
large hail and frequent lightning with some of the stronger storms,
mainly for KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA. Storms are anticipated to be east
of our area by 04Z. For the Wyoming terminals, wind gusts will
increase to 35-40 knots after 20Z in response to lee cyclogenesis
east of the Black Hills, resulting in broad WSW flow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     WYZ430>433.
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     NEZ434>437.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...NB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
455 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

WYZ106-107-116>118-082330-
East Platte County WY-South Laramie Range WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
455 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ALBANY...NORTHWESTERN
LARAMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 455 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Horse Creek, or 26 miles northeast of Laramie, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Albany,
northwestern Laramie and southwestern Platte Counties.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming near mile marker 39.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4167 10530 4178 10495 4153 10489 4152 10529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 247DEG 18KT 4158 10522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Vasquez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

WYZ107-108-090000-
East Platte County WY-Goshen County WY-
525 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL GOSHEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Veteran, or 21 miles southwest of Torrington, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yoder and Veteran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 10459 4195 10467 4214 10446 4192 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 229DEG 15KT 4192 10454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
536 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

WYZ106-107-117-118-090000-
East Platte County WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
536 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LARAMIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 536 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Chugwater, or 24 miles south of Wheatland, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chugwater and Slater.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 41 and
61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 10512 4178 10500 4186 10472 4156 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 256DEG 12KT 4170 10496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Vasquez

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
558 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Hail             10 WSW Veteran          41.91N 104.53W
06/08/2026  M1.00 Inch       Goshen             WY   Public

            EM received reports from public of
            quarter-sized hail within large quantities
            of small hail covering the roadway.

&&

NB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
605 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Hail             7 S Chugwater           41.66N 104.85W
06/08/2026  M0.50 Inch       Platte             WY   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

RV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
617 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Hail             7 S Chugwater           41.66N 104.85W
06/08/2026  E0.50 Inch       Platte             WY   Public

&&

NB