Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of strong to severe
  thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong
  gusty winds are possible east of Interstate 25.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Development is beginning this afternoon generally along the
front range and just east where a stationary boundary is
located. We should see instability rise once again through the
afternoon hours, with some light shear currently present but
should be strengthening into the evening hours with bulk shear
around 30-50 knots. With this environment, it appears that
widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the next
couple of hours and continue into the evening, with large hail
and strong wind gusts the primary hazards.

Into Saturday we'll see the dryline move eastwards and bring a
much drier environment across the CWA. The one exception to
this could be our far eastern Nebraska Panhandle counties, which
could see some development during the later afternoon and
evening hours, but with how dry low levels will be expectation
is that this activity should either be ramping up in this area
and will be strongest just east of these counties, or may even
be dry in nature as better moisture remains just east. In either
case, we should be seeing a break from the stronger storm
activity, with daytime relative humidity values back down into
the teens and breezy winds accompanying. This should bring an
elevated fire weather threat to the area, with the strongest
risk for our zones west of the Laramie Range as strong wind
gusts are expected with the 700mb jet strengthening to around
45-50 knots. Currently we do not anticipate a Red Flag Warning
as last reported fuels remain green, however with how strong
these winds may be combined with the dry conditions we are still
considering breaking the glass for a warning across this area.
Will consult with the evening and nighttime shifts, but a
decision may not be made until tomorrow morning.

Sunday we'll see a shortwave rounding the base of the larger
western US trough moving across the area with the bulk of the
best moisture and storm parameters to the north. This will bring
a sliver of a marginal risk for stronger storms across our
northern zones, but for the most part we'll only have a slight
risk of some showers or possible storms in a mostly mediocre
environment. Breezy winds expected again from the low-level jet
kicking in, but RH values should slightly increase and limit
critical fire weather conditions, with an elevated environment
expected. Otherwise expect a meager cold front pass across the
region through the day, with highs west of the Laramie Range
just under or around 80 degrees, with further east highs sit in
the 80's to low 90's, but descending as we move into the long
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The persistent troughing that has been glued to the northwest the
better part of the weekend will still be with us to start off the
long-term. A strong shortwave on the southern end of this trough
will swing by Sunday night into Monday morning with a cold front. We
will start off Monday on the backside of the front with winds
shifting from the northwest and drier continental air advecting in.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than Sunday's, reaching
the upper 70s west and 80s east. Skies should stay mostly clear and
winds breezy up to 45-50 mph in some portions of the area. Some high
wind conditions may show up along the Laramie Range near the
Wheatland area. Most will see gust up to 30 mph. Despite the
rainfall we have received the last few days, fuels remain dry in the
Nebraska and most eastern Wyoming firezones. The anticipated
conditions do incite some concerns in elevated wildland fire
possibilities that basically stick around the rest of the long-term
period.

Tuesday sees much the same as Monday. Winds relax slightly as the
shortwave moves off to the northeast and a ridge axis noses in. This
will also mark the start of a warming trend through at least Friday,
if not longer. Another shortwave associated with the larger
troughing will swing by Tuesday. At the surface enough return flow
out of the southeast may allow a few storms to develop as the
shortwave moves overhead, primarily for the eastern areas. Past
Tuesday temperatures continue to increase each day with a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Bulk windshear stays elevated
through this period, so I wouldn't discount some risk of severe
thunderstorms. Unfortunately after Friday global ensemble models are
hinting at a large upper level high pressure system developing and
persisting. If this is indeed the reality of the very long term, we
could be in for a long period of hot and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Thunderstorms are beginning to take shape across the CWA this
afternoon, with a complex heading towards KBFF. Elsewhere, isolated
thunderstorms are moving across the region and may impact KCYS,
KCDR, KSNY and KAIA in the next hour or so. Therefore, PROB30 groups
are in the aforementioned TAFs through about 04Z this evening. Expect
gusty and erratic winds in any storm that goes over a terminal or
comes in the VC of one. TS activity should begin to wind down after
04Z this evening, but expect winds to remain gusty in the 25 to 35
knot range. Outside of TS activity, VFR conditions will prevail
otherwise.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ

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