Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of strong to severe
  thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong
  gusty winds are possible east of Interstate 25.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Development is beginning this afternoon generally along the
front range and just east where a stationary boundary is
located. We should see instability rise once again through the
afternoon hours, with some light shear currently present but
should be strengthening into the evening hours with bulk shear
around 30-50 knots. With this environment, it appears that
widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the next
couple of hours and continue into the evening, with large hail
and strong wind gusts the primary hazards.

Into Saturday we'll see the dryline move eastwards and bring a
much drier environment across the CWA. The one exception to
this could be our far eastern Nebraska Panhandle counties, which
could see some development during the later afternoon and
evening hours, but with how dry low levels will be expectation
is that this activity should either be ramping up in this area
and will be strongest just east of these counties, or may even
be dry in nature as better moisture remains just east. In either
case, we should be seeing a break from the stronger storm
activity, with daytime relative humidity values back down into
the teens and breezy winds accompanying. This should bring an
elevated fire weather threat to the area, with the strongest
risk for our zones west of the Laramie Range as strong wind
gusts are expected with the 700mb jet strengthening to around
45-50 knots. Currently we do not anticipate a Red Flag Warning
as last reported fuels remain green, however with how strong
these winds may be combined with the dry conditions we are still
considering breaking the glass for a warning across this area.
Will consult with the evening and nighttime shifts, but a
decision may not be made until tomorrow morning.

Sunday we'll see a shortwave rounding the base of the larger
western US trough moving across the area with the bulk of the
best moisture and storm parameters to the north. This will bring
a sliver of a marginal risk for stronger storms across our
northern zones, but for the most part we'll only have a slight
risk of some showers or possible storms in a mostly mediocre
environment. Breezy winds expected again from the low-level jet
kicking in, but RH values should slightly increase and limit
critical fire weather conditions, with an elevated environment
expected. Otherwise expect a meager cold front pass across the
region through the day, with highs west of the Laramie Range
just under or around 80 degrees, with further east highs sit in
the 80's to low 90's, but descending as we move into the long
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The persistent troughing that has been glued to the northwest the
better part of the weekend will still be with us to start off the
long-term. A strong shortwave on the southern end of this trough
will swing by Sunday night into Monday morning with a cold front. We
will start off Monday on the backside of the front with winds
shifting from the northwest and drier continental air advecting in.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than Sunday's, reaching
the upper 70s west and 80s east. Skies should stay mostly clear and
winds breezy up to 45-50 mph in some portions of the area. Some high
wind conditions may show up along the Laramie Range near the
Wheatland area. Most will see gust up to 30 mph. Despite the
rainfall we have received the last few days, fuels remain dry in the
Nebraska and most eastern Wyoming firezones. The anticipated
conditions do incite some concerns in elevated wildland fire
possibilities that basically stick around the rest of the long-term
period.

Tuesday sees much the same as Monday. Winds relax slightly as the
shortwave moves off to the northeast and a ridge axis noses in. This
will also mark the start of a warming trend through at least Friday,
if not longer. Another shortwave associated with the larger
troughing will swing by Tuesday. At the surface enough return flow
out of the southeast may allow a few storms to develop as the
shortwave moves overhead, primarily for the eastern areas. Past
Tuesday temperatures continue to increase each day with a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Bulk windshear stays elevated
through this period, so I wouldn't discount some risk of severe
thunderstorms. Unfortunately after Friday global ensemble models are
hinting at a large upper level high pressure system developing and
persisting. If this is indeed the reality of the very long term, we
could be in for a long period of hot and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Thunderstorms are beginning to take shape across the CWA this
afternoon, with a complex heading towards KBFF. Elsewhere, isolated
thunderstorms are moving across the region and may impact KCYS,
KCDR, KSNY and KAIA in the next hour or so. Therefore, PROB30 groups
are in the aforementioned TAFs through about 04Z this evening. Expect
gusty and erratic winds in any storm that goes over a terminal or
comes in the VC of one. TS activity should begin to wind down after
04Z this evening, but expect winds to remain gusty in the 25 to 35
knot range. Outside of TS activity, VFR conditions will prevail
otherwise.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
554 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

WYZ101-102-270030-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-Niobrara County WY-
554 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NIOBRARA AND
NORTHEASTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 554 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Rochelle to 6 miles west
of Fort Fetterman Historic Site. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bill and Dull Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 10473 4286 10522 4287 10573 4350 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 270DEG 22KT 4351 10507 4284 10561

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Vasquez

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
555 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Flash Flood      6 SSW Gering            41.76N 103.71W
06/26/2026                   Scotts Bluff       NE   Trained Spotter

            Video from trained spotter/social media
            showed water flowing over roadway with mud
            and debris.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
604 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

NEZ055-270030-
Cheyenne NE-
604 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 604 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lorenzo, or 7 miles southwest of Sidney, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Colton, Sunol, Sidney Municipal Airport, Lorenzo, and
Cheyenne County Fairgrounds.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 52 and
74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 10281 4100 10312 4106 10318 4133 10293
      4107 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 228DEG 18KT 4105 10304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Zawislak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
605 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

WYZ106>108-117-118-270045-
East Platte County WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Goshen County WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
605 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GOSHEN...
NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
MDT...

At 605 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Whitaker, or 27 miles north of Cheyenne, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chugwater and Slater.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 32 and
60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 10501 4154 10514 4200 10462 4161 10427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 238DEG 30KT 4153 10493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Zawislak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
626 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

WYZ101-102-270130-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-Niobrara County WY-
626 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL NIOBRARA AND
NORTHEASTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM MDT...

At 626 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dull Center to 13 miles north of Fort
Fetterman Historic Site. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Manning Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4328 10458 4296 10483 4297 10547 4332 10511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 264DEG 17KT 4337 10504 4303 10538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Vasquez