Tornado Warning 14, NWS State College, PA

450 
WWUS51 KCTP 052255
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAC041-043-099-052315-
/O.CON.KCTP.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260705T2315Z/
Cumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Perry PA-
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...WEST CENTRAL DAUPHIN AND EAST CENTRAL PERRY
COUNTIES...

At 655 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Shermansdale, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Duncannon and Wertzville around 700 PM EDT.
  Enola, Marysville, and Rockville around 710 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Dauphin.

This includes Interstate 81 from mile markers 57 to 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 7718 4037 7718 4043 7693 4039 7689
      4025 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 267DEG 17KT 4034 7710 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Dangelo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Targeted Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (level 3/4)
  for east-central Pennsylvania through tonight
* Flood Watch issued this afternoon through Monday for east-
  central Pennsylvania

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and tonight; flood
risk lingering in the east on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and tonight; flood
risk lingering in the east on Monday.

40 severe thunderstorm warnings issued in the past 2 days. The
days following a transition from an extreme heat pattern are
often marked by severe/active weather, and that trend continues
through at least Monday. As the heat dome shifts to the west and
troughing develops over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast, the
upcoming week will feature relatively cooler (more seasonal)
temperatures with a bullish signal for almost daily rain chances
particularly early and late in the week.

Another active wx day ahead with dual severe T-storm and flash
flood risks. We anticipate another diurnal uptick in convective
development within a very warm, moist and increasingly unstable
environment indicative of steep low-mid level lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger deep layer shear 30+ kt may exist in the
upper OH Valley and eastern PA, but the general expectation is
for pulse to multicell storms to once again merge/form into line
segments with some cold pool organization to promote damaging
wind potential from mid afternoon into the evening. Terrain
boundaries will also play an important role in initiating/organizing
convection given lack of other strong forcing. SPC placed the
highest damaging wind probs near/southeast of I81/78 where max
temps should reach 90F.

Focus will evolve from severe to flash flood/hydro ops by later
this evening and continue into Monday as a robust +RA signal
continues to manifest over east-central PA. Atmos conditions
will be quite favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding
potential with 2+ inch pwats correlating to intense rain rates
>2 in/hr. Still some question on degree of repeating/back-
building storms along q-stnry/wavy frontal zone. Latest
HREF/REFS mean QPF guidance is signaling 1-3" in the 24hr period
ending 00Z Tue with PMM/LPMM max values exceeding 5 inches. WPC
coordinated a targeted and relatively small moderate excessive
rainfall outlook (level 3/4) within a broader level 2/4 or SLGT
risk area. We issued a relatively large/broad flood watch along
with WFO PHI as there remains some spatial uncertainty to
exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur. The setup
(multiple rounds of slow moving/torrential downpours) favors
locally significant flash flooding particularly in terrain areas
and highly urbanized corridors. One limiting factor is
obviously the drought conditions and corresponding elevated FFG
values that may offset the overall risk to some extent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and
are once again likely to impact all TAF sites through the
evening. PROB30s have been included to highlight this potential,
though the timing will need to be adjusted as confidence
increases. Storms will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts, intense rainfall rates, and frequent lightning. Any
storms that move directly over an airfield will likely lead to
brief periods of IFR conditions.

Much of the heavier showers and thunderstorms come to an end
from west to east between 00z and 06 Mon, though lighter showers
may linger past 06Z. Fog and low clouds appear likely behind
these showers and widespread IFR conditions will be likely into
Monday morning as easterly upslope flow provides ample
moisture.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Restrictions possible in A.M. fog and P.M. T-storms.
Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in showers/storms, most
widespread on Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Rare Heat at Harrisburg: 3 consecutive days with maxT >= 100F
from July 2-4, 2026. The last time this streak occurred was
July 1999 (2x) and is only the 6th time on record going back to
1888.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for PAZ019-026>028-036-045-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
062000-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered wind damage is also possible with strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-062000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may make isolated minor
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may also cause flooding on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
610 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ037-052245-
Tioga PA-
610 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mansfield, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Blossburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 7688 4169 7709 4183 7704 4185 7690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 281DEG 8KT 4177 7697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
614 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Tyrone            40.68N 78.24W
07/05/2026                   Blair              PA   911 Call Center

            Basement collapse due to flash flooding on
            West 20th Street.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
625 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Unionville          40.85N 77.87W
07/05/2026                   Centre             PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down on wires along South Fillmore
            Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
627 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ017-018-024>026-052300-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
627 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CLEARFIELD...
NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE...NORTHERN BLAIR AND
NORTHEASTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Westover to Altoona to Portage. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Tyrone, Bald Eagle, Lakemont, Bellwood, Warriors Mark,
Patton, Cresson, Gallitzin, Hastings, Tipton, Lilly, Houtzdale,
Sankertown, Sandy Ridge, Blandburg, Spruce Creek, Birmingham,
Horseshoe Curve, and Prince Gallitzin State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 7831 4077 7819 4074 7823 4074 7817
      4071 7813 4050 7811 4041 7868 4054 7860
      4072 7876
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 252DEG 25KT 4068 7860 4057 7852 4044 7859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Beaty

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
630 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ENE Potters Mills     40.80N 77.58W
07/05/2026                   Centre             PA   Utility Company

            Trees down on wires off of Decker Valley
            Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
641 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Landisburg         40.35N 77.29W
07/05/2026                   Perry              PA   Utility Company

            Trees down on wires along Milltown Road.

&&