Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Targeted Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (level 3/4)
  for east-central Pennsylvania through tonight
* Flood Watch issued this afternoon through Monday for east-
  central Pennsylvania

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and tonight; flood
risk lingering in the east on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and tonight; flood
risk lingering in the east on Monday.

40 severe thunderstorm warnings issued in the past 2 days. The
days following a transition from an extreme heat pattern are
often marked by severe/active weather, and that trend continues
through at least Monday. As the heat dome shifts to the west and
troughing develops over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast, the
upcoming week will feature relatively cooler (more seasonal)
temperatures with a bullish signal for almost daily rain chances
particularly early and late in the week.

Another active wx day ahead with dual severe T-storm and flash
flood risks. We anticipate another diurnal uptick in convective
development within a very warm, moist and increasingly unstable
environment indicative of steep low-mid level lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger deep layer shear 30+ kt may exist in the
upper OH Valley and eastern PA, but the general expectation is
for pulse to multicell storms to once again merge/form into line
segments with some cold pool organization to promote damaging
wind potential from mid afternoon into the evening. Terrain
boundaries will also play an important role in initiating/organizing
convection given lack of other strong forcing. SPC placed the
highest damaging wind probs near/southeast of I81/78 where max
temps should reach 90F.

Focus will evolve from severe to flash flood/hydro ops by later
this evening and continue into Monday as a robust +RA signal
continues to manifest over east-central PA. Atmos conditions
will be quite favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding
potential with 2+ inch pwats correlating to intense rain rates
>2 in/hr. Still some question on degree of repeating/back-
building storms along q-stnry/wavy frontal zone. Latest
HREF/REFS mean QPF guidance is signaling 1-3" in the 24hr period
ending 00Z Tue with PMM/LPMM max values exceeding 5 inches. WPC
coordinated a targeted and relatively small moderate excessive
rainfall outlook (level 3/4) within a broader level 2/4 or SLGT
risk area. We issued a relatively large/broad flood watch along
with WFO PHI as there remains some spatial uncertainty to
exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur. The setup
(multiple rounds of slow moving/torrential downpours) favors
locally significant flash flooding particularly in terrain areas
and highly urbanized corridors. One limiting factor is
obviously the drought conditions and corresponding elevated FFG
values that may offset the overall risk to some extent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and
are once again likely to impact all TAF sites through the
evening. PROB30s have been included to highlight this potential,
though the timing will need to be adjusted as confidence
increases. Storms will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts, intense rainfall rates, and frequent lightning. Any
storms that move directly over an airfield will likely lead to
brief periods of IFR conditions.

Much of the heavier showers and thunderstorms come to an end
from west to east between 00z and 06 Mon, though lighter showers
may linger past 06Z. Fog and low clouds appear likely behind
these showers and widespread IFR conditions will be likely into
Monday morning as easterly upslope flow provides ample
moisture.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Restrictions possible in A.M. fog and P.M. T-storms.
Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in showers/storms, most
widespread on Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Rare Heat at Harrisburg: 3 consecutive days with maxT >= 100F
from July 2-4, 2026. The last time this streak occurred was
July 1999 (2x) and is only the 6th time on record going back to
1888.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for PAZ019-026>028-036-045-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
062000-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered wind damage is also possible with strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-062000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-
353 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may make isolated minor
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may also cause flooding on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ017>019-024>026-051915-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
Southern Centre PA-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CLEARFIELD...
NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE...NORTHEASTERN BLAIR
AND NORTHEASTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ebensburg to Tyrone. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone, Bald Eagle, Bellwood, Warriors Mark, Patton, Tipton,
Blandburg, Birmingham, Franklinville, Prince Gallitzin State Park,
Chest Springs, and Delgrosso's Amusement Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4071 7867 4083 7808 4064 7805 4055 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 217DEG 10KT 4056 7861 4069 7817

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Beaty

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
331 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Tyrone            40.68N 78.24W
07/05/2026                   Blair              PA   911 Call Center

            Flash flooding along West 20th Street in
            Tyrone. Water 2.5 feet deep over the road
            restricting emergency responders from
            flooded homes.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
334 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE Tyrone             40.68N 78.24W
07/05/2026                   Blair              PA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Flooding onto porch of home, multiple
            reports of flooding in Tyrone near 20th St
            and Hamlin Ave.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
335 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE Tyrone             40.68N 78.24W
07/05/2026                   Blair              PA   911 Call Center

            Numerous reports of flash flooding across
            the north end of Tyrone. Hamlin and Lincoln
            Avenues.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Tyrone            40.68N 78.23W
07/05/2026                   Blair              PA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Water up to the bottom of the first floor of
            the paper mill and Pennsylvania Ave
            completely underwater.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
410 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ019-026-027-052045-
Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
410 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON...CENTRAL
MIFFLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Tyrone to State College to
near Lewistown. Movement was north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Lewistown, Park Forest Village, Boalsburg, Pleasant
Gap, Stormstown, Lemont, Belleville, Houserville, Pine Grove Mills,
Milroy, Centre Hall, Ramblewood, Reedsville, Port Matilda, Julian,
Whipple Dam State Park, Mcalevys Fort, Potters Mills, and Rock
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 7784 4061 7803 4081 7812 4091 7796
      4094 7785 4076 7755 4056 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 181DEG 10KT 4070 7805 4078 7785 4069 7768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Colbert