Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
148 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Higher confidence in timing of most thunderstorms (2 PM
  through 11 PM). Increased POPS for SHRA/TSRA layer this
  morning and this afternoon across the Wcent and Northern Mtns.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe storms expected for Central PA this
afternoon and evening.

2) Rare SPC Day 5 outlook for SVR TSRA potential across much of
PA on Thu 6/18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe storms expected for Central PA
this afternoon and evening. SPC's late morning upgrade added a
higher wind threat across NW PA (similar to the elevated, 30%
wind threat near and to the SE of the I-81 corridor in PA.

Plenty of multi-layered WAA clouds will cover the NW half of PA
late this morning and early this afternoon with a high
probability for a 30-90 minute period of showers associated with
an area of showers (and possibly a rumble of thunder) mainly to
the north of a line from KJST to KUNV and KIPT.

This initial area of convection is linked to a relatively weak
mid/upper level vort max lifting NE across the region ahead of
the main show (i.e. an anticipated line of strong to severe TRSA
that will sweep SE across the CWA this afternoon and evening).

This lead area of convection shouldn't intensify much, if any,
as its moving over an area with plenty of cloud cover and SBCIN
of 200-500 j/kg.

In contrast, partly sunny skies should last into the mid
afternoon hours near and to the east of I-81. SFC Based CAPE is
with no CIN is already up into the 1000-1500 J/KG range across
the Lower Susq - south of KMDT and KLNS thanks to the better sfc
heating and injection of higher llvl moisture (Sfc Tds in the
mid 60s) north off the Chesapeake Bay.

The temperatures should still get near convective temp in the
early afternoon in the west. Storm motion will bring these into
Central PA while additional but isolated storms pop up over the
CWA.

A cold front will be sweeping across the CWA later today and
early tonight. That front will be the main focus for
thunderstorms late this aftn and this evening. A pre- frontal
trough may develop a few storms in the more-humid region of the
Lower Susq in the afternoon, but models have backed off somewhat
on this possibility with the 00Z runs. Time- lagged ensembles
still hold onto some hope for this, but the trend is drier and
for fewer storms in the air over the central mountains and Susq
Valley. A cap aloft will probably stifle deep convection in
those areas before 5 PM EDT until heights start to fall and
lapse rates steepen.

The dewpoints in the SE are already a little higher than the
rest of the CWA, and will rise even more through the day, but
high moisture (Td in the m-u 60s) will also pool ahead of the
front. Deep-layer (0-6km) shear ramps up to nearly 45KT and
CAPE could touch 2000J/kg in the S and more than 100 in the N.
Hodographs get slightly curved before the front, and the NAM
generates helicity over 300 in the late aftn and early evening -
just ahead of the front - in many places. So, supercells are
possible for a brief window. Mostly, the storms will be multi-
cell clusters. Wind damage will be the most probably threat.
Hail less so, and tornadoes even lower. However, the LCLs will
be low which could make it easier for tornado formation should
discrete cells develop. The front picks up speed in the evening,
and should push all the storms past BFD close to 8 PM, and
through LNS around 11 PM.

   ------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rare SPC Day 5 outlook for SVR TSRA potential
across much of PA on Thu 6/18

The nose of a very strong, 40+ KT swrly 850 mb jet 50+ KT at 700
mb (both being 3+ sigma on the standardized anomaly scale), the
the right entrance region of a 100 KT 250 mb jet and PWATS
around 1.5 inches (with the potential of a EML surging in from
the west ahead of a strong sfc cold front) will bring the ideal
synoptic setup for a severe weather outbreak here in the CWA. As
always, even with the moisture, instability and shear present,
such strong forcing could produces plenty of clouds and early
day convection to stabilize the atmos and decrease the potential
for significant afternoon severe weather. We'll be monitoring
this potential closely as we head into the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level shortwave energy is slipping through western PA
early this afternoon ahead of potent cold frontal boundary.
Expect just a glancing blow from this feature with only VCSH
generally across northern PA through the next few hours.

VFR to MVFR conditions will remain until the onset of showers
and convection moves steadily across the state through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Some timing diffrences in the
short term high resolutions models, but the trend is for
convection to enter northwest PA in the late afternoon and exit
southeast PA during the late evening. As with any convection
scenario, expect wind shear, heavy rainfall/wet runways and
lightning as storms cross any airfield.

Once the storms exit and the frontal boundary passes after
midnight, conditions will improve to MVFR then VFR overnight
with winds shifting to the northwest near 10KTS.

With cold air aloft on Monday, a BKN cloud layer will form but
it will remain VFR. An isolated -SHRA is possible after this
forecast period - especially over northern PA.

Outlook...

Tue...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible.

Wed...Higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, restrictions more likely.

Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Beaty/Tyburski

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
336 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

PAZ024>026-142015-
Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
336 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON...
NORTHEASTERN BLAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Altoona, moving east
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone, Bellwood, Warriors Mark, Tipton, Spruce Creek, Birmingham,
Franklinville, Sinking Valley, Petersburg, Alexandria, and
Delgrosso's Amusement Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4063 7854 4072 7810 4055 7805 4056 7846
      4055 7846 4056 7847 4056 7849 4058 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 261DEG 29KT 4059 7845

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
501 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

PAZ024-025-033-034-142130-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
501 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD...NORTHERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAMBRIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Somerset, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Somerset and Acosta around 505 PM EDT.
  Boswell around 510 PM EDT.
  Jerome around 525 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tunnelhill, Benson,
Spring Hill, Cassandra, and Stoystown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 7923 4012 7921 4011 7919 4012 7917
      4016 7916 4017 7914 4018 7914 4018 7913
      4020 7913 4054 7843 4031 7826 3996 7917
      4008 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 245DEG 23KT 4008 7915

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Dangelo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
518 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Dubois              41.08N 78.76W
06/14/2026                   Clearfield         PA   911 Call Center

            Tree blocking roadway on Watson Highway.

&&

JBL

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