Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
721 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Eastern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania have been placed under a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds with
any stronger thunderstorms through this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through this
evening, with isolated damaging winds possible with any more
intense storms that are able to develop.

2) A brief period of quiet weather tonight and Sunday.

3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances for
thunderstorms is expected Sunday night through Wednesday. There
will be some risks for severe weather, along with potential for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to the repeated rounds of
storms. There remains lower confidence in the exact timing,
placement, and severity of storms early this week.

4) A cooler and drier pattern is favored to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As of 3 PM, a cold front extends from extreme Southeast MI and
across Northwest OH. This front will sweep southeast across the
forecast area through this evening. There is also a lake breeze
boundary evident near the Lake Erie shoreline, especially
northeast of Cleveland.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to gradually
evolve along the cold front as it sweeps across the area. We may
also see a few showers or storms develop across southern
portions of the area ahead of the front on the nose of higher
theta-e air trying to advect in from the west-southwest, along
with along the aforementioned lake breeze.

Warm and dry mid-levels, along with rather weak large scale
forcing, are negatives for storm development and have led to
activity being slow to get going so far. Jet support modestly
improves after 5 PM as a very subtle shortwave progresses
across the southern Great Lakes, so do expect coverage and
intensity of showers and storms to increase at least somewhat
into this evening as the front progresses east across the area.
Activity should exit to the southeast between 9-11 PM with the
front. Overall, POPs range from 30-60% across the area this
evening, mainly in the 30-40% range but briefly higher across
the Wooster/Akron-Canton/Youngstown areas.

Weak shear and the warm/dry mid-levels will make it difficult to
see organized/intense thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
However, steep low-level lapse rates, moderate to strong MLCAPE,
and strong DCAPE can support a few microbursts/downbursts if any
more intense storms can play out. Confidence is low-medium.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cooler and drier airmass briefly moves in for tonight and
Sunday behind the front. There may be some patchy radiational
cooling fog in the "usual spots" early Sunday morning.
Otherwise, Sunday is expected to be rain-free until very late.
Highs will again be well into the 80s on Sunday, but dew points
will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The much-anticipated active pattern (some may call it a "ring
of fire") is still on track beginning Sunday night. The pattern
favors repeated rounds of storms with risks for both severe
weather and heavy rain/flash flooding across the region through
the first half of the week...however, would like to state quite
clearly that these types of patterns feature plenty of
uncertainty regarding the exact placement and severity of
storms, as each round of storms will modify the environment and
lay down boundaries that affect subsequent rounds. So the advice
at this time is to be prepared for unsettled weather through the
first half of this week, including potential for severe weather
and flash flooding, but to continuously check back for updates
as it's currently too early to have confidence in the details.

Aloft, ridging will be in place from the Rockies east across
much of the South, with a modest trough over the Northeast.
This will put our area beneath a band of enhanced west-northwest
flow aloft for the first half of the week. At the surface, this
evening's front will lift back north as a warm front Sunday
night and Monday, waiver across the southern Great Lakes through
Tuesday and into Wednesday, and finally push back south of the
area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Clusters of storms will
be favored near and just south of the front, with some tendency
in these types of regimes for clusters of storms or MCSs to dive
south of the front into the deeper instability. The forecast
has elevated chances for rain and storms for several periods
beginning Sunday evening or night across the area, though in
reality storm chances will be occasional from late Sunday
through Wednesday with a combination of various shortwaves and
daytime heating modulating when risks are higher or lower.

With the caveat that uncertainty increases farther out in time,
current consensus has a few potential window of elevated rain
and storm chances. An initial, weakening cluster of storms will
attempt to spread in from the west-northwest Sunday evening into
Sunday night. There is greater confidence in another cluster
spreading in late Sunday night or early Monday. Beyond that,
there's decent confidence in the next window for storms to
develop or move in will be late Monday and Monday night.
Confidence decreases too much to identify additional windows
with much resolution, but the front is not expected to sweep
south until Wednesday or Wednesday night, so the forecast
maintains elevated storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

South of the front, a combination of a very warm and humid
airmass beneath somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates will
support moderate to strong instability Monday through Wednesday.
This will couple with moderate deep-layer shear to support risks
for organized/severe convection. Precipitable water values
increase to 1.50-1.90" Sunday night through Wednesday. That is
not extreme, but still can support more efficient rain-rates
and eventually a risk for flash flooding where training or
repeated rounds of storms occur. This is overall a setup that
can support impactful convective hazards (mainly in the form of
damaging winds, potentially widespread, and/or flash flooding)
across the broader region. However, there's lower confidence in
the exact timing and placement. Currently, it appears that any
storms between Monday afternoon and Tuesday evening would have
the greatest overall risk to be severe and/or produce excessive
rainfall across the local area.

The main "fail mode" with a setup like this is clusters of
storms continuously diving southward into the deeper instability
and largely remaining just to our west/southwest. This could
limit how much instability can advect into the local area and
end up focusing activity farther west/southwest than modeled.
Currently, most guidance suggests we'll be able to lift the
instability axis into at least parts of our area by Monday
night, though trends will need to be monitored. Overall, the
northeast end of our area has lower confidence in seeing heavy
rain or severe weather than locations farther west/southwest.

KEY MESSAGE 4...
A trough and surface high pressure are expected to build into
the Great Lakes and New England Thursday into Friday, bringing a
period of cooler and drier weather to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue this evening behind
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Have a PROB30 in at
KCAK/KYNG for any additional thunderstorm develop that may move
overhead southeastern terminals through ~02Z/Sun. A brief window
of MVFR ceilings is possible near daybreak as radiational fog
develops across inland terminals. Have TEMPO groups at TAF sites
where highest confidence in BR exists.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected Sunday
night through Thursday as periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms move across the airspace. Some storms could be
strong to severe during this timeframe, especially on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 10-15 knots will persist across the lake today ahead
of an approaching cold front. This cold front will transit the lake
later this afternoon into tonight, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms with it. Behind the front winds will shift out of the
northwest, decreasing below 10 knots across the eastern half of the
lake after 04Z, and after 08Z everywhere else. A ridge will build
into the region Sunday, with light and variable winds through the
day.

A series of low pressure systems, with showers and thunderstorms,
will transit the region Sunday night through Thursday. Southwest
winds 15-20 knots are possible Monday, with winds becoming westerly
to northwesterly less than 10 knots Tuesday. Brief ridging with
light and variable winds is expected Wednesday, with southwest winds
10-15 knots Thursday morning, becoming northwesterly in the
afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...13
MARINE...27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
208 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-091815-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-
208 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move in from the northwest Sunday night and could
produce damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall, mainly in
Northwest Ohio.

A better potential for severe weather exists for late Monday and Monday
night when a large complex of thunderstorms could move across the
area. If these storms can materialize, they could produce damaging
winds, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ009>014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-091815-
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Huron-Medina-
Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
208 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and this evening. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather in the form of isolated damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move in from the northwest Sunday night and could
produce damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall, mainly in
Northwest Ohio.

A better potential for severe weather exists for Monday evening and
Monday night when a large complex of thunderstorms could move across
the area. If these storms can materialize, they could produce
damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-091815-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
208 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move in from the northwest Sunday night and could
produce damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall, mainly over
western Lake Erie.

A better potential for severe weather exists for Monday evening and
Monday night when a large complex of thunderstorms could move across
the lake. If these storms can materialize, they could produce
damaging winds, waterspouts, and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
540 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

OHZ023-082215-
Trumbull OH-
540 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TRUMBULL COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cortland, or near Warren, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Cortland, Vienna Center, Vienna, Orangeville, Yankee Lake,
Brookfield Center, Howland Center, and West Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 8081 4131 8082 4138 8052 4120 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 262DEG 26KT 4129 8077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
548 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

OHZ028-029-037-082215-
Crawford OH-Richland OH-Morrow OH-
548 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND...
NORTHEASTERN MORROW AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

At 548 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Galion, or 10 miles southeast of Bucyrus, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Galion, Ontario, Lexington, Crestline, Bellville, Shauck,
and Iberia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 8286 4070 8287 4071 8291 4078 8287
      4081 8272 4080 8246 4055 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 281DEG 25KT 4072 8281

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
638 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

OHZ029-037-082315-
Richland OH-Morrow OH-
638 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN RICHLAND AND
NORTHEASTERN MORROW COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 637 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Lexington, or 8 miles northeast of Mount Gilead,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Lexington, Bellville, Butler, Lucas, and Shauck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 8284 4066 8283 4069 8274 4070 8241
      4055 8244 4055 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 270DEG 21KT 4063 8270

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

OHZ031-038-090015-
Holmes OH-Wayne OH-
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND HOLMES
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 729 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Holmesville, or near Millersburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Berlin, Walnut Creek, Killbuck, Holmesville, Mount
Eaton, Winesburg, Farmerstown, Baltic, Fredericksburg, Mount Hope,
and Charm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 8187 4055 8209 4074 8195 4070 8165
      4064 8165 4063 8167 4054 8166 4054 8167
      4044 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 282DEG 23KT 4062 8190

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
843 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

OHZ011>013-090115-
Geauga OH-Lake OH-Cuyahoga OH-
843 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GEAUGA...NORTHEASTERN
CUYAHOGA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 843 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Painesville to near Cleveland. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Willowick, Chardon, Lakewood, Euclid, Mentor, Cleveland
Heights, Solon, Willoughby, Warrensville Heights, Highland Hills,
Chesterland, Garfield Heights, Shaker Heights, Maple Heights, South
Euclid, Mayfield Heights, East Cleveland, Lyndhurst, and University
Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 8100 4160 8101 4139 8154 4144 8168
      4145 8169 4149 8180 4149 8171 4153 8167
      4158 8157 4171 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 276DEG 28KT 4168 8123 4149 8172

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
859 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

PAZ003-090145-
Crawford PA-
859 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 859 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Canadohta Lake to Harmonsburg. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Titusville, Riceville, Lincolnville, Canadohta Lake, Guys
Mills, Saegertown, Hydetown, Blooming Valley, Townville,
Spartansburg, Woodcock, and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7962 4162 7982 4154 7992 4153 7995
      4163 8036 4186 7986 4185 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 278DEG 22KT 4183 7979 4164 8029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders