Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Cleveland, OH

514 
WHUS71 KCLE 221335
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

LEZ144>146-222145-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.260823T0400Z-260824T1400Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-
935 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from the the Islands 
  to Willowick OH.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ147>149-222145-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.260823T0400Z-260824T1400Z/
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
935 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Willowick OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

186 
WHUS71 KCLE 222030
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
430 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

LEZ144-145-230430-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.260823T0400Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
430 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
5 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-230430-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.260823T0400Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
430 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

217 
WHUS71 KCLE 230132
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
932 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

LEZ144-145-230945-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.260823T0400Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
932 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-230945-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.260823T0400Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
932 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

392 
WHUS71 KCLE 230741
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
341 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LEZ144-145-231545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
341 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-231545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
341 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

989 
WHUS71 KCLE 231419
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1019 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LEZ144-145-232230-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
1019 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-232230-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
1019 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

854 
WHUS71 KCLE 231942
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LEZ144-145-240345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
342 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-240345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
342 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

525 
WHUS71 KCLE 240146
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
946 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

LEZ144-145-241000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
946 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-241000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
946 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

413 
WHUS71 KCLE 240736
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
336 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ144-145-241545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
336 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-241545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
336 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

535 
WHUS71 KCLE 241353
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ144-145-242100-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
953 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-242200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
953 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

810 
WHUS71 KCLE 241957
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
357 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ144-145-242100-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
357 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from The Islands to 
  Avon Point OH.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ146>149-250400-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
357 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

809 
WHUS71 KCLE 242052
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
452 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ144-145-242200-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260824T2100Z/
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
452 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds and waves have decreased. Therefore, the Small Craft
Advisory will be allowed to expire. 

$$

LEZ146>149-250400-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
452 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Avon Point OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

358 
WHUS71 KCLE 250120
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

LEZ146>149-250230-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260825T0400Z/
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
920 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have decreased. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory
has been cancelled. 


$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track. Low chance for precipitation in NW OH
late this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
Saturday afternoon and evening with a low end severe threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)  Showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight and, with
greater coverage, Saturday afternoon and evening with a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather.

2) Lingering showers in NE OH and NW PA likely Sunday through Monday
with below average temperatures expected across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure continues to build off to into Eastern Canada through
the end of the today as a surface low pressure system enters the
Western Great Lakes. This system will bring widespread precipitation
and severe weather potential to the region Saturday afternoon into
the evening. Ahead of this system, a shortwave is expected to move
through the Southern Great Lakes that will generate some low end
potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly for Western and North
Central Ohio. Through the early morning there may be some lingering
showers across Western Ohio that will be dissipating as the move
eastward into the mid morning hours. This could inhibit the overall
severe weather threat later in the afternoon and evening depending
on how quickly the showers dissipate and cloud cover clears.

Ahead of the surface cold front, there will be a pre-frontal that
will move through the region and be the support for severe weather
to develop off of. Models have been in decent agreement of the
timing of storms starting in North Central Ohio in the late
afternoon and moving eastward through the late evening. There will
be decent instability in the form of around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
low level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km. Though, the limited amount of
shear will be a limiting factor for severe weather potential as
there will be around 20-30 knots of bulk shear. The main threats for
this system will be damaging winds within downbursts with a
secondary threat of large hail possible. The cold front will pass
through late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, though with
the atmosphere being worked over with the pre-frontal trough, severe
weather is not expected with the passage.

Overall precipitation accumulation has remained on track with
previous forecast runs with between 0.25" and 0.75" expected, with
the higher end amounts across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern
Pennsylvania. Flash flooding potential is on the lower end for this
system, though a quick inch or two of rain is possible in the
stronger storms that could bring some nuisance flooding. Overall,
the severe weather threat and widespread precipitation is expected
to end before daybreak on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the cold front passage early Sunday morning there will be a
lingering trough that sets up across Eastern Lake Erie that persists
through Monday. A much cooler Canadian high pressure will begin to
build into the Western Great Lakes on Sunday as well that will usher
in unseasonably cooler temperatures. With the lake relatively warm
still, lake effect showers are likely across the primary snowbelt
region. Showers will persist through Monday with chances decreasing
into Tuesday as upper level ridge builds in to the Ohio Valley that
will shift flow across Lake Erie to be more westerly than
northwesterly.

Temperatures as a result of the Canadian high pressure building in
will drop to be below average for Sunday and Monday before beginning
to rebound Tuesday. Highs across the region on Sunday will be in the
upper 60s in Northwest Pennsylvania to the mid 70s in Northwestern
Ohio. Monday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler before
everyone warms back up into the mid 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows
will be down into the mid to low 50s Sunday and Monday before they
rise back up to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The primary concerns and possible impacts for our local
aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a
round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early
evening. There is a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe
storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. There is
some isolated convection with a warm front early this morning
which could impact CLE briefly between 06z and 09z with VCTS or
-TSRA. There will be a lull in shower and storm chances through
 late this morning. The cold front will start to move into NWOH
 around midday to early afternoon. There are PROB30 groups for a
 5 to 6 hour time window from west to east between 16z this
 afternoon to 01z this evening. Any heavier showers and storm
 that impacts a TAF site will likely have a brief period of MVFR
 to IFR visibility reductions and ceilings with CB around 3K
 feet near the frontal passage. The convection should move
 eastward out of the NEOH and NWPA after 00z Scattered lake
 enhanced rain showers will likely develop around CLE, YNG, and
 ERI later this evening into the overnight with possible MVFR
 ceilings and visibility at times.

Winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5
to 10 knots. Southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12
knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to
20 knots possible. Any isolated strong to severe convection may
have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this
afternoon. Winds will switch from the west-northwest late this
evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through
Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated
thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow out of the northeast ends this evening, turning
offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave heights coming down
below 1ft. A cold front approaches Saturday with increasing
storm chances, and passage across the lake expected in the
evening. Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts through Sunday
night with wave heights climbing to 3-6ft and will likely need a
Small Craft Advisory for the central and eastern basins. With
this being a cooler airmass over the warmer lake, waterspouts
could become an issue during this same time frame. Winds ease
and become offshore midweek, bringing wave heights down.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-220800-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
359 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to move across
the area Saturday afternoon and evening. There is a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather, with damaging winds and
hail the main threats. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1241 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

OHZ018-027-220530-
Seneca OH-Wyandot OH-
1241 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SENECA AND NORTHERN
WYANDOT COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

At 1241 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vanlue, or 11 miles northwest of Upper Sandusky, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Sycamore, New Riegel, and Carey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 8346 4099 8346 4099 8343 4103 8342
      4117 8320 4099 8311 4094 8311 4084 8344
      4094 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 233DEG 14KT 4096 8340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

OHZ018-027-028-220615-
Seneca OH-Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-
135 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SENECA...EASTERN
WYANDOT AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM EDT...

At 135 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Upper Sandusky, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bucyrus, Upper Sandusky, Sycamore, Carey, Benton, Nevada, Harpster,
and Oceola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 8325 4101 8341 4107 8312 4100 8301
      4081 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 249DEG 10KT 4083 8324

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sullivan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 SSW Marblehead        41.50N 82.74W
08/22/2026  M46 MPH          Ottawa             OH   Public

            A private weather station measured 46 mph
            wind gust on Johnson Island.

&&

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
250 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 17 ENE Kelley's Island  41.67N 82.39W
08/22/2026  M40 MPH          LEZ164             OH   Buoy

            Lake Erie Buoy 45005 measured 40 mph wind
            gust.

&&

MG