Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Cleveland, OH

398 
WWUS51 KCLE 220539
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

OHC123-220548-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-260822T0545Z/
Ottawa OH-
139 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OTTAWA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
145 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small 
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this strong 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4173 8278 4169 8274 4163 8277 4158 8289
      4161 8287 4164 8291 4168 8290 4169 8289
      4174 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 234DEG 17KT 4171 8273 

$$

Sullivan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
739 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track. Low chance for precipitation in NW OH
late this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
Saturday afternoon and evening with a low end severe threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)  Showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight and, with
greater coverage, Saturday afternoon and evening with a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather.

2) Lingering showers in NE OH and NW PA likely Sunday through Monday
with below average temperatures expected across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure continues to build off to into Eastern Canada through
the end of the today as a surface low pressure system enters the
Western Great Lakes. This system will bring widespread precipitation
and severe weather potential to the region Saturday afternoon into
the evening. Ahead of this system, a shortwave is expected to move
through the Southern Great Lakes that will generate some low end
potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly for Western and North
Central Ohio. Through the early morning there may be some lingering
showers across Western Ohio that will be dissipating as the move
eastward into the mid morning hours. This could inhibit the overall
severe weather threat later in the afternoon and evening depending
on how quickly the showers dissipate and cloud cover clears.

Ahead of the surface cold front, there will be a pre-frontal that
will move through the region and be the support for severe weather
to develop off of. Models have been in decent agreement of the
timing of storms starting in North Central Ohio in the late
afternoon and moving eastward through the late evening. There will
be decent instability in the form of around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
low level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km. Though, the limited amount of
shear will be a limiting factor for severe weather potential as
there will be around 20-30 knots of bulk shear. The main threats for
this system will be damaging winds within downbursts with a
secondary threat of large hail possible. The cold front will pass
through late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, though with
the atmosphere being worked over with the pre-frontal trough, severe
weather is not expected with the passage.

Overall precipitation accumulation has remained on track with
previous forecast runs with between 0.25" and 0.75" expected, with
the higher end amounts across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern
Pennsylvania. Flash flooding potential is on the lower end for this
system, though a quick inch or two of rain is possible in the
stronger storms that could bring some nuisance flooding. Overall,
the severe weather threat and widespread precipitation is expected
to end before daybreak on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the cold front passage early Sunday morning there will be a
lingering trough that sets up across Eastern Lake Erie that persists
through Monday. A much cooler Canadian high pressure will begin to
build into the Western Great Lakes on Sunday as well that will usher
in unseasonably cooler temperatures. With the lake relatively warm
still, lake effect showers are likely across the primary snowbelt
region. Showers will persist through Monday with chances decreasing
into Tuesday as upper level ridge builds in to the Ohio Valley that
will shift flow across Lake Erie to be more westerly than
northwesterly.

Temperatures as a result of the Canadian high pressure building in
will drop to be below average for Sunday and Monday before beginning
to rebound Tuesday. Highs across the region on Sunday will be in the
upper 60s in Northwest Pennsylvania to the mid 70s in Northwestern
Ohio. Monday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler before
everyone warms back up into the mid 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows
will be down into the mid to low 50s Sunday and Monday before they
rise back up to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primarily VFR conditions are expected to start this TAF period
before a cold front approaches on Saturday and bring the chance
for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some MVFR ceilings may
creep into the far western terminals Saturday morning, but as
mixing increases with heating these should lift. Then as showers
progress east beginning late morning/early afternoon, locally
heavy rainfall may reduce visibilities to MVFR, possibly IFR, at
times. Best chance for thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and evening hours on Saturday when peak heating
occurs.

Light and variable winds overnight will become southwest at 5-10
knots Saturday morning. These winds will begin to shift to
northwesterly behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening
hours for western terminals with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions should continue Saturday night
through early Monday in lake enhanced showers and storms across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow out of the northeast ends this evening, turning
offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave heights coming down
below 1ft. A cold front approaches Saturday with increasing
storm chances, and passage across the lake expected in the
evening. Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts through Sunday
night with wave heights climbing to 3-6ft and will likely need a
Small Craft Advisory for the central and eastern basins. With
this being a cooler airmass over the warmer lake, waterspouts
could become an issue during this same time frame. Winds ease
and become offshore midweek, bringing wave heights down.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
359 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-220800-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
359 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to move across
the area Saturday afternoon and evening. There is a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather, with damaging winds and
hail the main threats. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1241 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

OHZ018-027-220530-
Seneca OH-Wyandot OH-
1241 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SENECA AND NORTHERN
WYANDOT COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

At 1241 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vanlue, or 11 miles northwest of Upper Sandusky, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Sycamore, New Riegel, and Carey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 8346 4099 8346 4099 8343 4103 8342
      4117 8320 4099 8311 4094 8311 4084 8344
      4094 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 233DEG 14KT 4096 8340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77