Small Craft Advisory 16, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather and flooding remain possible this afternoon and
evening with storms ahead of a cold front. A colder pattern shift
early next week will allow for periodic precipitation and the
potential for some accumulating snowfall in NE OH and NW PA on
Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather and flooding remain possible this afternoon and
evening with storms ahead of a cold front. The main window for
strong to severe storms remains from 3 to 10 PM. Flooding remains a
concern in North Central Ohio, where area rivers and creeks still
have high flows. Additional rain this afternoon and evening may
allow for flooding to linger into Sunday.

2) A pattern shift begins on Sunday and will carry through Tuesday
with cooler than normal temperatures and scattered rain/snow
chances, especially in lake effect/upslope areas of NE OH and NW PA.
Some light snow accumulations are possible in the snow belt area on
Monday night.

3) The pattern will shift again starting in the middle of the week
with temperatures returning to normal and at least one day of dry
weather on Wednesday. Rain chances may return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Overall, the severe weather setup continues as advertised
across the area. The warm front wraps around the southern shore
of Lake Erie this afternoon. The Toledo metro started cool this
morning but the front has surged north to at least the state
line. Over in NW PA, the front is struggling to get to the city
of Erie with cold northeast flow off the lake, but the front may
still have some time to get there. Otherwise, temperatures are
doing well in the warm sector with widespread 70s and some
record high temperatures have already been achieved. Winds are
mixing down fairly well in the warm sector with 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts throughout central Ohio and spreading north.

There are two areas to look for severe weather this afternoon. The
first concerning area will be from North Central Ohio and east. A
cumulus field has filled in across the area this afternoon. More
robust cumulus is seen extending from the Lake Erie Islands south
through Columbus into southern Ohio. These clouds have the ability
to develop this afternoon and may turn into scattered showers and
storms that will move through the eastern half of the area. There is
a fair amount of low level instability that will build ahead of this
future area of convection that will not have anything working over
the atmosphere ahead it. However, the one limiting factor is a
slight cap from 500-650 mb that really weakens the mid-level lapse
rates and could prevent convection from forming ahead of the main
cold front. The other concerning area will be with the ongoing
convection ahead of the cold front that is crossing the IN/OH state
line. This line has already produced some just sub-severe wind gusts
in Indiana and will enter an environment that will become
increasingly favorable for severe wind gusts this afternoon with
better DCAPE and low level lapse rates. The limiting factor for this
line will be any convection that develops ahead of it that could
work over the atmosphere and diminish the wind threat.

For the flooding threat through tonight, storms will be progressive
across the area with at best two rounds of precipitation expected.
Overall, the QPF forecast remains limited with one inch of rain or
less expected with the rain ahead of the cold front. There is
ongoing flooding of note in North Central Ohio, mainly in the
Mohican River basins, and flooding here may be slower to recede with
this next round of rain. Flooding outside of this region would be
limited to localized urban issues where FFG values have lowered over
the past week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Tonight's cold front will be the start of a significant pattern
change across the region. Sunday's high temperatures are likely
to be early in the morning before the main cold front rolls
through the region. Cold advection will persist across the area
on Sunday as the main upper trough axis moves through the Great
Lakes region. This trough could allow for some modest lift to
allow for some light rain showers on Sunday, especially downwind
of Lake Erie where there could be some upslope in the higher
hills of NE OH and NW PA. For Monday into Monday night, a
secondary push of energy will move aloft through the region and
provide more lift for precipitation. With 850 mb temperatures in
the -6 to -8C range, there will be the opportunity for some
lake enhanced precipitation with some upslope enhancement as
well and have increased PoPs for this period. On Monday night, a
more firm changeover to snow is likely and snow accumulations
are possible in the hills of NE OH/NW PA. It would not be
unreasonable to see 1-3" of snow by Tuesday morning where
scattered snow showers persist.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The cooler high pressure system from earlier in the week will
shift east and allow for warmer, return flow into the region.
Temperatures will return back to normal on Wednesday with upper
50s and dry conditions. There is still some uncertainty on the
timing of the late week system and cold front with some guidance
suggesting rain ahead of this feature entering on Thursday and
other guidance suggesting that rain hold off until Friday.
Temperatures may get a bit warmer into the 60s ahead of this
front but not near the 70s and 80s from this afternoon.
Therefore, any storm potential seems low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions at the onset of the period will give way to MVFR
conditions in SHRA and possible TSRA at the terminals as a strong
cold front pushes east during the first half of the period. There
will generally be a 2-3 hour window for the best TSRA potential at
the terminals ahead of the front, followed by more widespread SHRA
and lowered ceilings with the frontal passage. Rain ends from west
to east in the 04-08Z timeframe across the area with lingering MVFR
ceilings possible. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the cold front
this afternoon may reach 30-35 kts at terminals, especially west,
before winds veer more westerly behind the front for the second half
of the period. Lingering gusts in the 20-25 kt range possible behind
the front.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings may linger through Sunday.
Non- VFR may return Monday and Monday night in rain and/or snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie are currently 10-15 knots out of the east to
northeast and will shift to be out of the south by this afternoon
with the western basin increasing to around 15-20 knots. A strong
cold front will move across the region this evening quickly shifting
winds to out of the west by late tonight. Stronger winds may be
possible within showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves
through Winds will stay elevated through Sunday with sustained
winds of 15-20 knots and waves increasing to 3-5 feet. A Small Craft
Advisory will be needed for early Sunday morning through Monday
morning when winds and waves begin to subside. Winds will increase
again Tuesday with a cold front passing through the region and will
likely warrant another Small Craft Advisory. High pressure will
begin to build into the region on Wednesday and quieter marine
conditions are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New high temperature records are occurring at area climate sites
this afternoon. Here are the current record high temperatures
for all six of our climate sites for April 4:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
04-04   78(1882)       79(1921)       77(1882)       77(1921)       76(1981)       77(1928)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...03
MARINE...10/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
209 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-050615-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
209 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Area rivers will continue to run high tonight with some remaining
above flood stage. See active Flood Warnings for more specific
details.

There is Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in place the
entire forecast area as a strong cold front will sweep through late
this evening with showers and thunderstorms expected. Some of these
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.
Storms could also produce heavy rainfall which could lead to
additional localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-050615-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
209 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will sweep through late this evening with
showers and thunderstorms expected with the front. Some of these
thunderstorms may produce strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1049 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Hail             Marion                  40.59N 83.12W
04/03/2026  E1.00 Inch       Marion             OH   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1145 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     Hail             1 E Marion              40.59N 83.11W
04/03/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marion             OH   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1218 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     Flash Flood      3 W Sugarcreek          40.49N 81.69W
04/03/2026                   Holmes             OH   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1223 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Lexington          40.69N 82.59W
04/03/2026                   Richland           OH   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
250 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OHZ003-006-017-041930-
Wood OH-Hancock OH-Lucas OH-
250 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WOOD...NORTHERN HANCOCK AND LUCAS
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 250 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Delta to near Holgate to near Kalida.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Findlay, Bowling Green, Fostoria, Swanton, Perrysburg,
Oregon, Sylvania, Rossford, Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse, North
Baltimore, Holland, McComb, Weston, Arcadia, Van Buren, Maumee, and
Ottawa Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8388 4173 8346 4171 8347 4171 8345
      4170 8346 4169 8344 4170 8344 4169 8343
      4169 8340 4108 8342 4095 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 225DEG 50KT 4162 8409 4130 8408 4098 8415

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
331 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OHZ003-006>008-042030-
Wood OH-Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH-Lucas OH-
331 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...SANDUSKY...SOUTHEASTERN
WOOD AND NORTHEASTERN LUCAS COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Northwood to 6 miles northeast of Bowling Green
to near North Baltimore. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Port Clinton, Put-In-Bay, Oregon, Clyde, North Baltimore,
Oak Harbor, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Elmore, Ballville, Catawba
Island, Bradner, Marblehead, Wayne, Risingsun, Cygnet, Lindsey, and
Portage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 8342 4169 8341 4171 8334 4164 8323
      4161 8309 4153 8298 4151 8299 4152 8297
      4155 8286 4168 8280 4155 8283 4151 8272
      4149 8296 4145 8304 4142 8294 4144 8285
      4134 8285 4117 8373 4131 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 216DEG 50KT 4162 8350 4143 8354 4122 8362

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sefcovic