Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
805 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Saturday's Slight Risk for severe weather has been expanded to
include the entire local area. There's still concern for
localized flooding due to excessive runoff and/or additional
rises on rivers thanks to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
through Saturday, although confidence in the location of the
highest precipitation values and the resulting location of the
greatest flooding risk remains somewhat low at this point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
frontal boundary across the area through tonight. A few storms
may be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts/large
hail. Additional minor flooding is possible due to heavy
rainfall rates.

2) Confidence in organized thunderstorms is higher as a cold
front moves across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. Storms may be strong to severe and produce heavy
rainfall.

3) Much cooler temperatures expected Sunday through the middle
of next week with a few periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have developed south
of the lakeshore, however a relatively strong capping inversion
will most likely continue to prevent widespread efficient
thunderstorm growth through the rest of this afternoon.
Showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage along a frontal
boundary as better upper level support arrives this evening
before lifting north with the boundary early Saturday morning.
If any storms manage to grow tall enough, there is potential for
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and large hail through
about 10 PM tonight. Otherwise, assuming the mid-level dry air
doesn't throw a wrench into things, heavy rain will be the
primary threat through late tonight with unseasonably high
precipitable water values expected. Mean flow will be parallel
to the frontal boundary, but the good news is storm motion will
be progressive which will help mitigate training and the flash
flooding potential. With that being said, antecedent conditions
are conducive for at least minor flooding with 1 and 3 hour FFG
under 2 inches in place across the majority of the area and high
soil moisture values present across the eastern half of the
local area. At this point, it's difficult to pinpoint the areas
of greatest concern given uncertainty in where the highest QPF
axis will occur tonight.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
The local area will remain in the warm sector during the day
Saturday, allowing dew points to rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by the afternoon. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop as a cold front moves east into the
area Saturday afternoon and crosses the area into Saturday
evening. Showers and storms will be more organized with this
round given the better upper-level forcing and higher effective
bulk shear values up to 40 knots. The moist southerly flow and
likely clearing early in the day will also result in MLCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Storm mode will likely
be line segments with damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat. However, 0-1 km shear values of around 15 knots, the
higher MLCAPE values, and LCL heights under 1000 feet will
support at least a low-end chance of a few spinups/tornadoes.
The Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather has been
expanded to include the entire CWA, meaning confidence in
organized/stronger storms has increased a bit. Heavy rainfall
will likely accompany the convection and the multiple rounds of
heavy rain in just a couple of days may make it a bit easier for
flooding to occur Saturday afternoon/evening. By early Sunday
morning, two-day rainfall totals of about .75 to 1.25 inches
will occur across the majority of the area with locally higher
amounts certainly possible where the heaviest rainfall rates
occur. Additional rises on area rivers are likely.

KEY MESSAGE #3:
A pattern shift with colder temperatures is anticipated behind
Saturday's cold front. Highs will be in the 40s and lower 50s
Sunday and Monday with the coldest highs in the 30s and lower
40s expected on Tuesday. Periods of lake effect/enhanced showers
are possible through early Tuesday and rain may mix with snow at
times, especially Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures
will trend warmer for mid to late week and a period of
widespread dry weather is expected late Tuesday through
Wednesday before rain shower chance return on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring periods of MVFR
and even IFR conditions to KMFD, KCAK, and possibly as far north
as KYNG over the next few hours. All other sites will be mainly
dry and VFR. This axis of showers and thunderstorms will start
to lift northward overnight and impact KTOL, KFDY, KCLE, and
KERI, but confidence in the timing at each terminal is low. In
general, think that the showers and thunderstorms will be near
KFDY, KTOL, and KCLE in the 06-10Z timeframe, with it likely
taking until 10Z or later to reach KERI. At the same time, the
showers and thunderstorms will gradually lift out of KMFD, KCAK,
and KYNG in the roughly 04-09Z timeframe. This timing is give
or take an hour and will depend on the organization of the
convection.

By mid morning Saturday, there will be a lull areawide before a
line of showers and thunderstorms spreads in from west to east
from mid afternoon through mid evening. Have showers and
thunderstorms reaching KTOL and KFDY between 17 and 20Z and KYNG
and KERI by 23Z. These storms could produce locally higher winds
at each terminal, especially the NE Ohio terminals.

Winds will become generally E at 5-10 knots tonight, turning S
and increasing to 10-15 knots Saturday morning as the warm
front lifts north. Winds will turn SW and further increase to
15-25 knots, with gusts over 30 knots at times, by Saturday
afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings may linger through Sunday.
Non- VFR may return Monday and Monday night in rain and/or snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will briefly increase around 15 to 20 knots out of the east
Saturday morning ahead of a lifting warm front, though the main
marine concern continues to be on Sunday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 22 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed
on Sunday, especially across the central and eastern basins. In
addition, strong winds may accompany some of the showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front on Saturday. A secondary
cold front will cross the lake Monday night into Tuesday with
confidence increasing for additional Small Craft Advisories as winds
shift towards the north to northwest, 20 to 22 knots. Quieter marine
conditions will return on Wednesday as high pressure builds across
the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-041945-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Area rivers will continue to run high tonight with some remaining
above flood stage. See active Flood Warnings for more specific
details.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely through late this
evening as a front dips south across the area. Locally heavy rain
may accompany some storms and there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for damaging winds and large hail. Storms will be most favored along
and south of the front, generally south of the I-80 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will sweep through late Saturday and Saturday
night with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected. Some
of these thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes. There is Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in
place the entire forecast area. Storms could also produce heavy
rainfall which could lead to additional localized flooding and
continued elevated river levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-041945-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will sweep through late Saturday and Saturday
night with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected with
the front. Some of these thunderstorms may produce strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
843 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSE Millersburg       40.53N 81.90W
04/03/2026                   Holmes             OH   Emergency Mngr

            2 feet of water over Township Road 129 and
            County Road 58.

&&

Garuckas

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
849 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     Flash Flood      2 NE Killbuck           40.52N 81.96W
04/03/2026                   Holmes             OH   Emergency Mngr

            2 feet of water reported over Township road
            91 with shipping containers flowing down the
            road.

&&

Garuckas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ036-037-040215-
Marion OH-Morrow OH-
914 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MARION AND MORROW COUNTIES
THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 914 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Mount Gilead, Cardington, Prospect, Waldo, Chesterville,
Caledonia, Edison, Green Camp, Fulton, Shauck, and Iberia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4046 8325 4050 8325 4051 8327 4064 8328
      4071 8282 4071 8265 4055 8263 4055 8264
      4042 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 269DEG 26KT 4056 8318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNE Fredericktown     40.53N 82.52W
04/03/2026                   Knox               OH   Dept of Highways

            The Knox County branch of the Ohio DOT sent
            a photo of water 3 to 4 inches deep on
            Yankee Street just east of Roberts Road.

&&

Garuckas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1016 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ027-028-036-040300-
Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-Marion OH-
1016 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MARION...SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOT
AND SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

At 1016 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Rue, or 11 miles west of Marion, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, La Rue, Morral, Marseilles, Caledonia, New Bloomington, Green
Camp, and Harpster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4049 8325 4051 8325 4050 8341 4073 8343
      4077 8296 4049 8296 4049 8301 4047 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 268DEG 22KT 4064 8333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1049 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 NNE Green Camp        40.55N 83.19W
04/03/2026                   Marion             OH   Amateur Radio

            Amateur radio operator relayed a report of a
            funnel cloud near Highway 203 and route 95.

&&

Garuckas