Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe weather potential late this afternoon and evening has
decreased, but a few scattered thunderstorms are still expected to
redevelop in the wake of the first round.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) A few scattered thunderstorms will redevelop late this afternoon
and evening as a cold front crosses the region. An isolated cell or
two could produce damaging winds, but additional severe weather is
generally not expected.

2.) After a brief cool down Sunday, heat will build next week. The
combination of air temperatures and humidity may cause heat indices
to exceed 100 by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that produced the swath
of severe winds late this morning and early this afternoon along
and south of U.S. 30 has exited southeast of the region. A
second line of convection that impacted southern portions of
Ashtabula County and Crawford County, PA has also slid east and
southeast of the area. This early day convection has thrown a
big wrench in the severe weather forecast for late this
afternoon and evening.

Visible satellite loops show rapid clearing behind the earlier
convection, and this is allowing temperatures to recover quickly
back to around 80 degrees. Recovery will continue this afternoon,
with temperatures in the low to mid 80s still on the table by 20Z,
especially in NW and north central Ohio. Upstream dew points of
around 70 F should advect ENE into the area from Illinois and
Indiana ahead of the cold front, and this rich low-level moisture
combined with the heating should allow for about 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
by late afternoon. The problem is that the earlier convection has
laid down multiple outflow boundaries, so the most widespread and
organized redevelopment of new convection will likely occur south
and east of the CWA. There is certainly low-level convergence taking
place along the cold front from southwest Ontario back to northern
Indiana and central Illinois, and visible satellite loops show
agitated cumulus, but feel that the new convection that moves
into our area late this afternoon and evening will be widely
scattered. Effective bulk shear of around 40 knots could support
an isolated, organized updraft or two capable of producing
damaging winds, but additional severe weather is generally not
expected. The latest HREF and RFS are on board with this idea in
showing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
and sliding E/SE across the region through the evening, so
lowered POPS to be more in the chance range since the most
widespread convection already occurred.

Any lingering showers will quickly exit by Midnight tonight, setting
up a dry night with decreasing humidity. Patchy fog is possible
where locally heavy rain occurs, but confidence in that is low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The first official heat wave of the season is likely next week
(temperatures greater than or equal to 90 for 3 or more consecutive
days). After a brief cool down Sunday as the mid/upper trough axis
digs through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. and Canadian
high pressure at the surface builds across the Great Lakes, an
upstream mid/upper ridge will build eastward from the Plains. This
ridge will become strongest across the eastern CONUS Thursday
through Saturday ahead of a mid/upper trough swinging from the
northern Rockies through the northern Plains.

Expect high temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s Monday then
low 90s Tuesday as dew points increase. This will yield heat indices
well into the 90s Tuesday. An old cut off low/shortwave ejecting out
of the southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region late Tuesday
into Wednesday will lead to greater coverage of convection and cloud
cover, so temperatures Wednesday should briefly back off into the
mid/upper 80s. However, expect the hottest conditions Thursday and
Friday as the ridge axis strengthens overhead and SW flow deepens.
Temperatures solidly into the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s
will yield heat indices potentially over 100 degrees Thursday and
Friday. The NWS HeatRisk map shows widespread major impacts
Wednesday through Saturday due to the cumulative effects, so heat
headlines may be needed late in the week.

Widely scattered convection will continue in the hot and humid
airmass Thursday and Friday, but a potential for more organized
convection may occur Saturday as the upstream trough and associated
cold front start to break the heat.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
An initial round of showers and storms have moved through the
terminals during the early afternoon hours. Some residual MVFR
remains at KCAK and KYNG with some trailing stratiform rain.
Meanwhile, a low cumulus field is developing in Northwest Ohio
with some intermittent MVFR ceilings at KTOL and KFDY. This
field is ahead of the main cold front that may bring another
round of showers and storms to the region this evening into
tonight. Any convection should be isolated to scattered and
sub-severe and have some loose PROB30 mentions this evening for
any redeveloping storms but overall confidence is low for
impacts. Behind this next round of convection, conditions will
trend to dry with improving ceilings. Winds will be light and
generally westerly with some shift to the north for Sunday. Some
fog/mist will be possible where rain occurred this afternoon,
mainly KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southwest flow continues over the eastern half of Lake
Erie this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Elevated waves will
persist through this evening and the Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement can continue through 8 PM. The cold
front will cross the lake tonight and winds will shift to the
north with light onshore flow. This light north wind will
continue through Sunday. A warm front will approach the lake for
Monday and shift winds to the east. This front will cross the
lake for Tuesday and southerly offshore flow will be favored.
Southwest flow will be favored on Wednesday and Thursday with
the lake in the warm sector of a low pressure system. Winds may
increase to 15 to 20 kts during afternoon hours with the best
mixing. Overall, not expecting any marine headlines after
tonight.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic

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