Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1024 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Showers and storms expected today ahead of a cold front that will
track through the region tonight with potentially severe level
storms.

2.) Heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
Increased POPS to likely and categorical across the western and
southern counties through early afternoon as an MCS propagates
southeastward across the area. This complex is not being modeled
well at all by the CAMS, but it appears to be an old MCV that
regenerated a new line of convection due to downstream heating.
Strong warm air advection is rapidly raising dew points into the
mid 60s this morning, and with plenty of sunshine ahead of the
line and the increasing low-level moisture, expect it to
continue southeastward across the area. Surface based CAPE is
marginal (around 1000 J/Kg), but with around 30 knots of
effective bulk shear oriented normal to the line, there will be
a marginal threat for severe winds at times from about Findlay
to Mt. Vernon.

This morning complex results in a high amount of uncertainty
regarding the redevelopment of convection ahead of the cold
front this afternoon and evening. It is possible that a trailing
outflow boundary causes all new convection to develop south of
our CWA for the late afternoon and evening, so this will be
reevaluated with this afternoon's forecast package.

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers moving through Michigan and southern Ontario due to a
prefrontal surface trough and the emergence of a low level jet will
likely begin to dip southward into our CWA over the next several
hours. These will be largely low QPF producers and scattered in
nature, and not every location will receive rain this morning. As we
get into the daytime hours, flow aloft becomes cyclonic, and with
daytime heating, expecting not only a significant increase in the
instability, but a lowering of the CAPE as well. Column RH could lag
a bit, but do not expect that to be an inhibiting factor to
convection today. Models now showing an increase in the 0-6km bulk
shear compared to last night with 50kts, and could now see this
development becoming a line or cluster of storms moving mainly
northwest to southeast through the CWA. Expecting mainly damaging
winds as a the threat, and this potentially severe convection should
initiate after 18Z when insolation has had time to destabilize after
morning cloud cover exits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure in the wake of the cold front Sunday and Monday in
slightly cooler weather and convective chances returning Tuesday
thanks to a relatively high amplitude upper level trough axis moving
through. Another more persistent upper level ridge will move in for
the rest of the forecast period, through the end of the week, and
will mark a period where very warm temperatures should build in
along with higher dewpoints that eclipse 70F for much of the CWA
Thursday and Friday. Will need to watch the apparent temperatures
for the end of next week with those higher dewpoints and
temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Initial push of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
east across the region this morning. Have maintained TEMPO
groups for TSRA across most TAF sites through ~15Z/Sat. There
will be a brief break in precipitation late this morning into
early this afternoon. Thunderstorms will redevelop this
afternoon along a line south of Lake Erie as a cold front pushes
south across the region. Maintained PROB30 for lakeshore TAF
sites as convection may develop just south of them. Elsewhere,
have TEMPO groups to time out non-VFR impacts in thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.

Any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop and move over a
terminal will be capable of producing MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities. Any afternoon/evening thunderstorm may reach
severe limits and cause strong wind gusts and large hail.

Southwest winds have decreased slightly early this morning to
8-12 knots but they are expected to increase later this morning
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Locally higher wind gusts
possible in strong to severe thunderstorms. Winds will turn
westerly while decreasing to 8 knots or less tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog early Sunday morning.
Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase to 15-20 knots ahead of the passage of
a cold front this evening. Wave heights are expected to build
to 3-6 feet across the open waters and in the nearshore zones
of the eastern basin. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement though this evening. As the cold front
moves south across the region showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds
overhead behind the cold front allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less on Sunday. Easterly flow increases
to 10-15 knots on Monday before southerly flow returns on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

DISCUSSION...Garuckas/26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1144 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

OHZ029-030-037-047-061615-
Richland OH-Ashland OH-Morrow OH-Knox OH-
1144 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN RICHLAND...SOUTHERN
ASHLAND...MORROW AND KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1144 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lexington to Polaris. Movement was east at
70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Mount Vernon, Mount Gilead, Ontario, Lexington,
Loudonville, Fredericktown, Gambier, Utica, Bellville, Centerburg,
Danville, Chesterville, Sparta, Waterford, Butler, Perrysville,
Lucas, Marengo, and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8274 4035 8275
      4036 8292 4071 8276 4071 8273 4076 8272
      4077 8213 4067 8213 4067 8222 4057 8222
      4057 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 278DEG 61KT 4069 8268 4015 8295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Saunders

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1227 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Sparta            40.40N 82.71W
06/06/2026                   Morrow             OH   911 Call Center

            Report of large tree down on power lines
            along State Route 314 north of Sparta.

&&

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1235 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

PAZ003-061700-
Crawford PA-
1235 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harmonsburg, or near Meadville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Cochranton, Geneva, and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 8002 4149 8004 4158 8031 4166 8026
      4166 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 277DEG 22KT 4160 8026

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Sparta             40.41N 82.67W
06/06/2026                   Morrow             OH   Public

            Report of multiple trees down on State Route
            19 northeast of Sparta.

&&

AK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>