Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Cleveland, OH

148 
WGUS71 KCLE 062008
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
408 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

OHC035-055-062018-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260706T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga OH-Geauga OH-
408 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA AND 
NORTHWESTERN GEAUGA COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended and flooding is expected to recede. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT Monday for 
portions of Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 8144 4157 8142 4157 8141 4157 8139
      4157 8133 4157 8130 4160 8130 4164 8129
      4164 8127 4164 8126 4164 8124 4164 8119
      4154 8120 4152 8139 4152 8146 4157 8146
      4157 8145

$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
124 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a new Flood Watch for portions of the area today. This
watch covers a combination of periods of heavy rain continuing
to stream off of Lake Erie into parts of Northwest Ohio through
this morning and into this afternoon, along with expected
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms farther east
across portions of North Central and Northeast Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are streaming off of western Lake
Erie into parts of Northwest Ohio this morning, with activity
expected to blossom elsewhere across the area this afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain
concerns and a Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the area.

2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Thursday into Friday as the next cold front moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The weak, stacked low-mid level low that drifted into the region
on Sunday remains with us today before slowly exiting to the
east-southeast tonight and Tuesday, providing for one more day
of rather unsettled conditions across the area.

The focus to start the day is from Lake Erie into parts of
Northwest Ohio. A surface trough is over the lake, focusing
cooler, convergent east-northeast low-level flow north of the
low pressure currently located between Findlay and Mansfield.
The warm lake waters are providing for a pool of instability
that is extending into Northwest OH and has been fueling lake-
enhanced showers and thunderstorms with very efficient rain-
rates overnight. Most hi-res models suggest this activity will
continue at times through at least this morning and quite
possibly into the afternoon...especially if models like the
HRRR, which has captured this overall setup well, prove correct.
Given the general setup doesn't change until this afternoon
when the trough axis starts shifting south and instability over
the lake begins decreasing, expect this activity to continue in
some fashion with embedded efficient/torrential rain rates.

The most torrential rainfall overnight has been over the lake,
but has impacted Kelleys Island where radar and a few personal
weather stations suggest 10-15" of rain has fallen since about 9
PM. Peak hourly rates of over 5" per hour were observed. Even
on the mainland, a slow-moving cluster of showers and storms
has dropped a quick 2-3" of rain on parts of eastern Wood County
early this morning. Most hi-res models suggest at least another
localized 2-4" of rain can occur within lake enhanced
convection through the afternoon, with some models such as the
HRRR depicting potential for localized 5"+ totals. Given the
model signal, portions of the area seeing heavy rain on Sunday,
and observed rain rates overnight have gone with a Flood Watch
for Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, Erie, and Huron Counties
until 6 PM to advertise the continued potential for localized
flash flooding. Rain totals will likely be sporadic across the
watch area...the greatest concern would be if slow-moving or
training convection impacts the more urban Toledo area or places
that have otherwise seen heavy rain over the last 24 hours.

Elsewhere, we are starting mainly dry this morning. The trough
axis over the lake is expected to push onshore across North
Central and Northeast Ohio later this morning or early this
afternoon and gradually sag south-southeast across the region
through this evening. While activity may not be especially
focused or organized, decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and early evening along
the trough axis from parts of North Central Ohio points east-
southeast across much of Northeast Ohio. Skinny instability
profiles and elevated precipitable water values of 1.60-1.80"
inches will support efficient rain-rates with convection, with
generally weak west flow aloft supporting slower storm potions
and potentially a bit of training along the sagging trough axis.
This adds up to potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding once again. The model signal is somewhat mediocre for
heavy rain, likely due to the fairly modest forcing. Models
that seem to be capturing the setup best and handled Sunday's
setup better, such as the HRRR and 3km NAM, have decent
coverage of convection with localized 2-4" QPF bullseye across
portions of North Central and Northeast OH this afternoon and
evening. With parts of the area more prone to run-off after
Sunday's rain and in collaboration with neighboring offices,
hoisted another Flood Watch from 11 AM to 11 PM from Lorain and
Mansfield points east through the Cleveland, Akron, Canton and
Youngstown areas. A somewhat marginal watch, but if torrential
rates impact an urban area or places that saw heavy rainfall on
Sunday localized flash flooding could quickly develop.

In terms of any severe weather potential today, we are not
outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center and are not expecting
any sort of an organized severe weather threat given skinny,
somewhat marginal instability profiles and rather limited
amounts of vertical wind shear due to modest flow aloft. If
there is one thing to consider, it is that the low in the region
will provide for plenty of low-level vorticity, particularly
along the surface trough axis that will sag across the area this
afternoon and evening. With strong low-level instability
expected, a few stronger updrafts may stretch low-level
vorticity into the vertical and attain transient rotation. If
anything, this would encourage larger, slower-moving updrafts
that provide greater concern for heavy rain. If we see any more
sustained rotating updrafts as we did on Sunday the concern for
locally gusty winds and perhaps a funnel cloud/low end tornado
would be there. Overall, this seems to be on the less likely
side unless we see a convectively aided vort max or meso-low
develop like we did on Sunday.

We will largely dry out tonight, though can't rule out a few
lingering showers across southern/eastern portions of the area
closer to the departing low. Isolated to widely scattered
showers, and perhaps a storm, will likely develop with daytime
heating on Tuesday across eastern/southeastern portions of the
area. Coverage should be much less than recent days with no real
concern for any severe weather or additional flooding. Tranquil
conditions are expected Tuesday night through early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next cold front approaches from the northwest late Thursday
and Thursday night and crosses the area Friday morning and early
afternoon. Renewed shower and storm chances enter on Thursday
ahead of the front and linger into Friday. Weak mid-level lapse
rates and fairly modest flow aloft point to a lower-end
potential for severe weather if anything. However, will still
keep an eye on the setup as we get closer, especially if we're
able to see convection ahead of the front closer to peak heating
hours Thursday afternoon or evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
A mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area this
afternoon as a weak low pressure system continues to generate
showers and storms. Within these storms, conditions have
deteriorated as low as LIFR visibilities. These storms are very
slow moving and will result in multiple hours of deteriorated
conditions at any terminal impacted. Given the uncertainty with
timing, opted to use TEMPO to handle much of the convection but
will update to prevailing as needed to handle the impacts. All
storms will gradually deteriorate from west to east through this
evening and into the early overnight hours. Behind these storms,
MVFR to IFR ceilings will build in and patchy fog may develop,
especially for eastern terminals. These conditions will be slow
to improve on Tuesday morning, likely keeping at least MVFR
ceilings around into the late morning. The exception may be KTOL
and KFDY which may be able to rebound much quicker.

Northeast winds of 10-12 knots are expected through this
afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. As the
center of the low drifts east tomorrow, winds will gradually
gain a more northerly component and increase to 8-12 knots again
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are
also possible Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A meso low is currently over the western basin of Lake Erie this
morning. This surface low will track slowly eastward today moving on
shore near the Cleveland area. East to northeast flow will persist
over the lake today 10 to 20 knots. Waves over the western and
central basin will be up to 4 feet and has prompted a Small Craft
Advisory and associated beach hazard statements for a high risk of
rip currents through early evening. A small area of convection over
the western basin of Lake Erie associated with the meso low may
produce waterspouts through the morning hours. A residual weak
surface trough may linger over the Upper Ohio Valley Tuesday into
Wednesday which would continue a northeasterly to northerly flow 8
to 15 knots over Lake Erie. A weak area of high pressure will
briefly build into the area Thursday with a southwesterly flow 5 to
10 knots. A cold front will move across the area Friday with a
northwesterly flow around 10 knots behind it. No other marine
headlines are expected for the rest of the week beside today.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>009-019.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ003-007-009>011.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ010>013-
     020>023-029>033.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>146.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

OHZ003-007-009-070915-
Lucas-Ottawa-Erie-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ006-008-019-070915-
Wood-Sandusky-Huron-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ017-018-027-028-036>038-047-070915-
Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-Crawford-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ013-020>023-029>033-070915-
Geauga-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ010-011-070915-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ089-070915-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding today.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents along Lake Erie beaches
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012-070915-
Lake-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents along Lake Erie beaches
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ014-PAZ001>003-070915-
Ashtabula Inland-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-070915-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1029 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     Flash Flood      6 NNW Rocky Ridge       41.60N 83.26W
07/06/2026                   Ottawa             OH   Emergency Mngr

            State Route 579 and State Route 2 are closed
            due to significant flooding.

&&

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1158 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

OHZ007-008-061630-
Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH-
1158 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN
SANDUSKY COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1157 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm capable of
producing a funnel cloud near Oak Harbor, or near Fremont, moving
east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and funnel clouds are possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Lindsey, and Vickery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 8326 4149 8307 4147 8298 4146 8304
      4145 8304 4144 8301 4143 8301 4145 8297
      4142 8294 4144 8285 4129 8284 4140 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 284DEG 6KT 4144 8313

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
133 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     Flash Flood      5 N Rocky Ridge         41.60N 83.22W
07/06/2026                   Ottawa             OH   Emergency Mngr

            State Route 2 closed near State Route 590
            due to flooding.

&&

RC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     Flash Flood      4 NE Clay Center        41.60N 83.30W
07/06/2026                   Ottawa             OH   Emergency Mngr

            OH 579 near Nissen Road is closed due to
            flooding.

&&

RC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Rocky Ridge       41.52N 83.18W
07/06/2026                   Ottawa             OH   Emergency Mngr

            State Route 163 near Benton Street is closed
            due to flooding.

&&

RC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Flash Flood      Port Clinton            41.51N 82.94W
07/06/2026                   Ottawa             OH   Emergency Mngr

            Perry Street near Jefferson Street is closed
            due to flooding.

&&

RC