Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
208 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
continues this afternoon and evening, mainly over western areas.

2) Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes through
Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The threat for localized heavy rainfall and
flash flooding continues this afternoon and evening, mainly
over western areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Backdoor cold front is now in eastern Aroostook as seen on
visible satellite imagery. Storms developed in between the
backdoor cold front and the eastward moving cold front coming in
fm Quebec. Southerly flow over central and wrn portions of the
area has continued to funnel anomalous moisture into the Central
Highlands and the North Woods. In fact 12z GYX sounding set a
record with a PW value of 1.91 inches.

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for wrn zones through 07z
tonight due to high PW values, small Corfidi Vectors and
efficient warm rain processes. The threat for flash flooding,
with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, continues through
the time of fropa which looks to occur over part of CWA by 07z.

KEY MESSAGE 2..Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes
through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and
thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves towards Maine and
enters New England by Sunday. Rain moves in from west to east,
lasting Sunday into late Monday. Instability on Sunday ranges
from between 500-800 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates,
however mid-level lapse rates are meager. Instability may be
limited by capping inversion in the afternoon but cannot rule
out isolated thunderstorm development, mainly over the north and
west. Prolonged southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine is
anticipated to keep the Downeast region stable. Roughly
anticipating about one half to three quarters of an inch of
rain with these showers. Could be some locally higher spots of
higher rain totals in regions favoring thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This afternoon...VFR/MVFR at BGR. BHB likely to see VFR before
plummeting to IFR after 21z as marine layer moves back north.
Aroostook terminals to see IFR continues remainder of the
afternoon and overnight. SSE winds 5-10kts.

Saturday...IFR/LIFR with FG/BR in the AM becoming VFR/MVFR late
morning. VFR by afternoon. SE winds shifting WNW 5-15kt.

Saturday Night...VFR at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. Chance for MVFR and
isolated VCTS at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Winds light and variable.

Sunday-Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR north due to rain showers and
potential thunderstorms in the morning and day. VFR/MVFR
Downeast terminals. S winds with gusts 15-25KT possible Sunday.
LLWS possible Sunday night.

Monday...MVFR in rain showers in the morning. Potential for
isolated thunder Downeast terminals in the morning. Potential
for isolated thunder at KFVE and KCAR Monday evening. S winds,
shifting WSW by afternoon, with gusts 15-20KT possible.

Monday night-Wednesday...VFR. W winds, 5-10KT, gusts to 20kts
Tuesday afternoon. Winds becoming SW Tuesday night increasing to
5-10kts Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be below small craft levels all waters
through the weekend. Winds and seas approach small craft levels
over the waters out to 25NM Sunday night. Conditions drop below
small craft levels on Monday afternoon and remain that way into
the middle of next week. Fog will reduce visibilities over the
waters tonight.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through late tonight for MEZ001-003-004-010-031.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-140000-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren, Mars Hill,
Ashland, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,
Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Ripogenus, Telos Lake,
Caucomgomoc Lake, Chamberlain Lake, Millinocket, East Millinocket,
Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, Greenville,
Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland, Springfield, Bangor, Brewer,
Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond,
Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor,
Bucksport, Orland, Castine, Eastport, Perry, Machias, Cherryfield,
Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield
221 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...National Weather Service Cold Water Safety Message...

* The warm air temperatures this weekend in the low to mid 80s may
  cause people to underestimate the dangers of the cold water
  temperatures which are currently only around 60 on the lakes and
  around 70 on the rivers.

* The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to
  anyone immersed in the water. According to the Maine Warden
  Service, even when the water temperature is below 70 degrees,
  hypothermia and loss of dexterity can occur in 45 minutes or
  less. Anyone on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan
  accordingly if recreating this weekend and use extreme caution to
  avoid this threat. Paddle smart from the start and always wear
  your life jacket!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MEZ004-005-122015-
Northern Piscataquis ME-Northern Penobscot ME-
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS AND
NORTH CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Katahdin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Patten, Mount Katahdin, Ripogenus, Mount Chase, Katahdin Woods and
Waters National Monument, Shin Pond, Sherman Station, Baxter State
Park, Stacyville, and Katahdin Lake.

This includes State Highway 11 near Sherman Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4618 6860 4596 6843 4589 6843 4575 6908
      4590 6920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 245DEG 27KT 4587 6902

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SM