Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Caribou, ME

099 
WGUS51 KCAR 121847
FFWCAR
MEC003-021-121915-
/O.EXT.KCAR.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260612T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Caribou ME
247 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The National Weather Service in Caribou has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Piscataquis County in north central Maine...
  Central Aroostook County in northern Maine...

* Until 315 PM EDT.

* At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area as additional storms pass through. 
  Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Russel Crossing and Big Machias Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 4672 6877 4671 6860 4657 6861 4644 6881
      4650 6894 4664 6896

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

SM

648 
WGUS71 KCAR 121917
FFSCAR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
317 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MEC003-021-121927-
/O.EXP.KCAR.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260612T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Aroostook ME-Piscataquis ME-
317 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN PISCATAQUIS AND 
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTIES...

The Flash Flood Warning is being replaced with an advisory. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT Saturday for 
Portions of Central Highlands, Far Northern, North Woods, and north 
central Maine.

&&

LAT...LON 4672 6877 4671 6860 4657 6861 4644 6881
      4650 6894 4664 6896

$$

SM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
940 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
930am update...Issued Flood Watch for flash flooding this
afternoon through 3am tonight for Central Highlands into the
North Woods

- Let Dense Fog Advisory expire for coastal Washington County at
  9am

- Increased qpf amounts to indicate basin average amounts around
  1 inch in the Penobscot Basin

- 12z Aviation discussion update

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms driven by a backdoor
cold front and a humid airmass will bring the potential for
localized heavy rainfall today.

2) Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes through
Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms driven by
a backdoor cold front and a humid airmass will bring the
potential for localized heavy rainfall today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Today presents a challenging forecast as a quasi-stationary
front over the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick slowly
drifts southwestward as a backdoor cold front. Within the warm
sector across much of the CWA, PWATs will surge to near 2 inches
approaching daily record values at KCAR and representing
200-230 percent of normal. This anomalous moisture is
accompanied by very deep warm cloud layer (12-14kft) and low
LCLs, setting the stage for highly efficient, warm rain
processes in any convection that develops today.

Despite the development of a light southeast wind, areas from
Greater Bangor to the Central Highlands and the Baxter region
will see peeks of sunshine today. This surface heating will
allow diurnal instability to build, with global and hi-res CAM
guidance indicating 700-1250 J/kg of SBCAPE with some up to
1500j/kg. The most favorable instability will pool southwest of
the advancing backdoor front in northeastern Aroostook County,
as well as ahead of a weak surface trough over New Hampshire and
SE Quebec. This places much of the CWA, away from the stable
marine influence of the seabreeze, in a favorable environment
for convective initiation.

Heavy Rain / Flash Flood Threat: We will need to monitor the
excessive rainfall threat starting early this morning. Several
CAMs indicate the potential for training heavy showers in
northeastern Aroostook County just ahead of the advancing
backdoor front. As convection blossoms late morning into the
afternoon across the broader warm sector, forecast soundings
display classic "skinny CAPE" profiles, further corroborating an
efficient precipitation and heavy rainfall threat.

While dry antecedent soil conditions will initially help absorb
runoff, the overall environment is highly favorable for
excessive rainfall. Slow storm motions, near-record PWATs,
extreme precipitation efficiency, and storm vectors paralleling
the boundary suggest a moderate to high probability of training
convective elements. 1hr flash flood guidance (FFG) is 1.5-2
inches with 3hr FFG 2-3 inches. A few limiting factors to the
flash flood threat do exist: some guidance depicts slightly
faster storm motions, and poor mid-level lapse rates may
suppress overall instability and convective coverage in some
locations. However, much of the hi-res CAMs do generate large
areas of convection so will need to monitor the trends. WPC has
the entire area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall which
means isolated flash flooding possible.

Temperatures...A stark temperature gradient will setup across
the region today. Behind the backdoor front, temperatures will
fall quickly into the 60s (with a low probability of a few spots
dropping into the 50s). Elsewhere in the warm sector, expect a
muggy afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes
through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and
thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves towards Maine and
enters New England by Sunday. Rain moves in from west to east,
lasting Sunday into late Monday. Sunday seems to have decent
instability - with low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km, a
couple hundred J of CAPE, and frontal passage. Mid-level lapse
rates are okay - roughly 6 C/km. Most models are in agreement
for a decent amount of CIN, which would inhibit instability.
Best chances for isolated thunderstorm development should be
confined to the west and northeast. Prolonged southerly flow off
the Gulf of Maine is anticipated to keep the Downeast region
stable. Roughly anticipating about a quarter of an inch to half
an inch of rain with these showers. Could be some locally higher
spots of higher rain totals in regions favoring thunderstorm
development.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today: MVFR/IFR for Aroostook terminals with showers. PROB30 for
CAR, PQI and HUL for tstms and vsbys between 15-18z. E-SE winds
will increase to around 10 kts, with gusts picking up to 20 kts
by midday.

KBGR, KBHB: VFR/MVFR today. Winds will become SE at 5 to 10
kts. Included a PROB30 for afternoon thunderstorms (-TSRA) at
KBGR between 16z and 21z.

Tonight: Poor flying conditions expected region-wide. Widespread
IFR to LIFR conditions will settle in across all terms through
the end of the TAF period as -SHRA/BR, and very low stratus
prevail. Cigs to drop below 500 feet (OVC002-OVC005) at several
sites, including KFVE, KBGR, and KBHB. Winds will generally
remain E-SE at around 10 kts across the north, and SE around 5
kts Downeast.

Saturday...IFR/LIFR with FG/BR in the AM becoming VFR/MVFR late
morning. VFR by afternoon. SE winds shifting W-NW 5-15kt.

Saturday Night...VFR at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. Chance for MVFR and
isolated VCTS at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Winds light and variable.

Sunday-Sunday Night...MVFR, or lower, due to rain showers and
potential thunderstorms in the morning and day. S winds with
gusts 15-25KT possible Sunday. LLWS possible Sunday night.

Monday...MVFR in rain showers in the morning. Potential for
isolated VCTS at KFVE and KCAR Monday evening. S winds, shifting
W/SW by afternoon, with gusts 15-20KT possible.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. W winds, 5-10KT. Chance for 20KT
gusts Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below SCA conditions through Saturday for the coastal
waters out 25nm. Fog will continue the entire time across all
the waters out to 60nm reducing vsby at times less than 1nm.
Showers are likely tonight into Saturday AM. Winds and seas
below SCA criteria Saturday night into Sunday. Chance for a few
gusts to 25 kts, and some 5 ft seas, over outer waters Sunday
night into early morning. Fog over the waters Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Rain showers move in Sunday night, and a
chance for thunderstorms on Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for MEZ001-003-004-010-031.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ASB/21/JS
AVIATION...ASB/21/JS