Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated mesoanalysis for storms expected this afternoon.
Adjusted wording of key messages. Aviation discussion updated
for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms expected again this afternoon and evening
  with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain expected. Lingering
  moisture leading to scattered to widespread afternoon storms
  Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms expected again this afternoon
and evening with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain expected.
Lingering moisture leading to scattered to widespread afternoon
storms Monday through Wednesday.

Early this afternoon, convection has taken a bit longer to get
going compared to yesterday, mainly due to the increased
cloudiness and a bit longer time for us to reach convective
temperatures today. As most sites are starting to rise into the
low 90s by 1pm, convective temperatures are becoming reached and
as a result, beginning to see some agitation to the clouds and
some convection developing in the area. This activity is
expected to continue to grow through the afternoon and into this
evening as a robust shortwave is currently moving into the
Tennessee Valley with a surface front moving into southern NC.
This provide additional forcing with RAP forecast soundings
indicating strong destabilization today with sbCAPE around 3000
J/kg for much of the forecast area, similar to the last couple
of days. While PWATs are currently around 2 inches, especially
across the northern area, a layer of mid layer dry air is
visible on water vapor satellite imagery from North Georgia
shifting into the area, which will likely lead to a locally
enhanced area favorable for strong to severe downbursts leading
to damaging wind gusts. Storms may become a bit more organized
this afternoon as well with a bit stronger deep layer shear,
around 20 knots, which support multicell clusters developing and
maintaining through the forecast area. While storms should
exhibit sufficient movement to prevent widespread flooding, will
need to monitor training storms with areas generally north of
I-20 (and Augusta and Columbia metros) more susceptible to
flooding due both to the soil type and rainfall received the
last couple days.

On Monday, the front is expected to move through and the mid
level low should drop into the region as hires guidance
indicates PWAT's approach 2.2 inches. Low level flow becomes
increasingly northerly to northeasterly, keeping temperatures a
bit cooler and increased cloud cover is expected to limit
destabilization. This brings a lower risk for severe weather
with more marginal thermodynamics, but a couple strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/evening as deep layer shear is slightly increased. The
bigger risk Monday may be the heavy rainfall risk as scattered
to widespread showers and storms move through the area during
the day with efficient rain rates, similar to slightly higher
than Sunday in this moist airmass. The highest concern will
continue to be in areas highlighted today along with areas that
received additional significant rainfall today.

Shower and thunderstorms will likely continue Tuesday and
Wednesday and ensemble means have been slower to bring in a
drier air mass with PWATs generally greater than a standard
deviation above normal for at least portions of the area through
Wednesday, although drier air likely starts to sneak into the
northern area on Wednesday. Cooler air mass generally expected
to continue early this week with a recovery expected to normal
or slightly above normal temperatures for the second half of the
week as the upper ridge centered over the central CONUS begins
to shift eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most of the period, with the
exception of convection this afternoon and potentially ceilings
later on tonight.

A more organized and robust forcing mechanism is working
towards the area today. A trough will force a weak surface low
on the Lee Side of the Appalachians this afternoon, helping to
focus convective development across the Carolinas. The
environment is favorable for numerous, strong downbursts again.
Given the expected coverage of showers/storms, have kept VCTS at
all sites through this evening & bumped up the wind at each
site in the prob30s. Given the environment in place, it would
not be surprising to see 35-45 knot gusts at the sites in
stronger storms this afternoon. Expecting the convection to
persist into the evening as the surface front approaches and
pushes through the forecast area. Northeasterly flow behind
this, combined with very rich low-level moisture, should result
in MVFR ceilings developing and persisting through the end of
the period. The LAMP is delaying the cigs until 11z-13z, with
the NBM a bit more aggressive (~06z). Thinking that the latter
is probably a bit more realistic as the convection today will
likely result in the surface front sinking southward a bit
quicker than models can anticipate. So bring MVFR cigs into the
sites between 08z and 09z - but it could be earlier or a bit
later.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A good chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms with associated restrictions is expected into
early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
555 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCZ027-028-030-037-135-122245-
Lexington SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
555 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Calhoun,
southeastern Lexington, east central Aiken, northwestern Orangeburg
and southern Richland Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Gaston to Sandy Run. Movement
was southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gaston, Sandy Run, Swansea, North, Pelion, Woodford, Thor, Lexington
County Airport At Pelion, and Peachtree Rock.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 123 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8129 3362 8082 3384 8086 3383 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 337DEG 6KT 3379 8125 3379 8097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
607 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Mount Carmel       34.02N 82.49W
07/12/2026                   McCormick          SC   911 Call Center

            McCormick County dispatch reported multiple
            trees down across Hwy 823 near Mount Carmel.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
608 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Elgin                   34.67N 80.72W
07/12/2026                   Lancaster          SC   911 Call Center

            Lancaster County dispatch reported there are
            numerous trees down across the county. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
612 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-035-122300-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-
612 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Burke,
southeastern Richmond, southwestern Barnwell and southwestern Aiken
Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Plant Vogtle, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah River Site, Plant Vogtle, Williston, Jackson, Snelling,
Shell Bluff, Shell Bluff Landing, Savannah River Site H Canyon,
Bennock Mill, and Savannah River Site K Complex.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
east central Georgia...and central South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8163 3312 8191 3331 8190 3339 8142
      3312 8141 3316 8154 3310 8162 3308 8161
      3309 8160 3308 8160 3307 8158 3306 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 271DEG 18KT 3323 8182

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
640 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Batesburg         33.94N 81.57W
07/12/2026                   Saluda             SC   911 Call Center

            Saluda County Dispatch reported a few trees
            down along Old Golf Course Rd. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

gpl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
721 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCZ027-028-030-037-135-136-130000-
Central Orangeburg SC-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
721 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Calhoun,
southeastern Lexington, eastern Aiken, northwestern Orangeburg and
southeastern Richland Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 720 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Columbia Metro Airport to 10 miles east of
Aiken State Park. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Columbia, Orangeburg, Cayce, Oak Grove, South Congaree, Pine
Ridge, St. Matthews, Gaston, Congaree National Park, SC State
Farmer's Market, Columbia Metro Airport, Sandy Run, Gadsden, Swansea,
North, Pelion, Salley, Neeses, Norway, and Perry.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 111 and 144.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 8067 3334 8100 3357 8136 3399 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 310DEG 19KT 3393 8111 3359 8131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EC