Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Columbia, SC

808 
WWUS52 KCAE 121942
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCC057-121952-
/O.EXP.KCAE.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-260712T1945Z/
Lancaster SC-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3479 8054 3477 8052 3456 8054 3456 8055
      3453 8054 3457 8088 3460 8089 3465 8089
      3470 8086 3474 8088 3479 8087 3480 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 280DEG 10KT 3463 8066 

$$

CRL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated mesoanalysis for storms expected this afternoon.
Adjusted wording of key messages. Aviation discussion updated
for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms expected again this afternoon and evening
  with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain expected. Lingering
  moisture leading to scattered to widespread afternoon storms
  Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms expected again this afternoon
and evening with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain expected.
Lingering moisture leading to scattered to widespread afternoon
storms Monday through Wednesday.

Early this afternoon, convection has taken a bit longer to get
going compared to yesterday, mainly due to the increased
cloudiness and a bit longer time for us to reach convective
temperatures today. As most sites are starting to rise into the
low 90s by 1pm, convective temperatures are becoming reached and
as a result, beginning to see some agitation to the clouds and
some convection developing in the area. This activity is
expected to continue to grow through the afternoon and into this
evening as a robust shortwave is currently moving into the
Tennessee Valley with a surface front moving into southern NC.
This provide additional forcing with RAP forecast soundings
indicating strong destabilization today with sbCAPE around 3000
J/kg for much of the forecast area, similar to the last couple
of days. While PWATs are currently around 2 inches, especially
across the northern area, a layer of mid layer dry air is
visible on water vapor satellite imagery from North Georgia
shifting into the area, which will likely lead to a locally
enhanced area favorable for strong to severe downbursts leading
to damaging wind gusts. Storms may become a bit more organized
this afternoon as well with a bit stronger deep layer shear,
around 20 knots, which support multicell clusters developing and
maintaining through the forecast area. While storms should
exhibit sufficient movement to prevent widespread flooding, will
need to monitor training storms with areas generally north of
I-20 (and Augusta and Columbia metros) more susceptible to
flooding due both to the soil type and rainfall received the
last couple days.

On Monday, the front is expected to move through and the mid
level low should drop into the region as hires guidance
indicates PWAT's approach 2.2 inches. Low level flow becomes
increasingly northerly to northeasterly, keeping temperatures a
bit cooler and increased cloud cover is expected to limit
destabilization. This brings a lower risk for severe weather
with more marginal thermodynamics, but a couple strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/evening as deep layer shear is slightly increased. The
bigger risk Monday may be the heavy rainfall risk as scattered
to widespread showers and storms move through the area during
the day with efficient rain rates, similar to slightly higher
than Sunday in this moist airmass. The highest concern will
continue to be in areas highlighted today along with areas that
received additional significant rainfall today.

Shower and thunderstorms will likely continue Tuesday and
Wednesday and ensemble means have been slower to bring in a
drier air mass with PWATs generally greater than a standard
deviation above normal for at least portions of the area through
Wednesday, although drier air likely starts to sneak into the
northern area on Wednesday. Cooler air mass generally expected
to continue early this week with a recovery expected to normal
or slightly above normal temperatures for the second half of the
week as the upper ridge centered over the central CONUS begins
to shift eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most of the period, with the
exception of convection this afternoon and potentially ceilings
later on tonight.

A more organized and robust forcing mechanism is working
towards the area today. A trough will force a weak surface low
on the Lee Side of the Appalachians this afternoon, helping to
focus convective development across the Carolinas. The
environment is favorable for numerous, strong downbursts again.
Given the expected coverage of showers/storms, have kept VCTS at
all sites through this evening & bumped up the wind at each
site in the prob30s. Given the environment in place, it would
not be surprising to see 35-45 knot gusts at the sites in
stronger storms this afternoon. Expecting the convection to
persist into the evening as the surface front approaches and
pushes through the forecast area. Northeasterly flow behind
this, combined with very rich low-level moisture, should result
in MVFR ceilings developing and persisting through the end of
the period. The LAMP is delaying the cigs until 11z-13z, with
the NBM a bit more aggressive (~06z). Thinking that the latter
is probably a bit more realistic as the convection today will
likely result in the surface front sinking southward a bit
quicker than models can anticipate. So bring MVFR cigs into the
sites between 08z and 09z - but it could be earlier or a bit
later.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A good chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms with associated restrictions is expected into
early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
915 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NW Jackson            33.37N 81.86W
07/11/2026                   Aiken              SC   Dept of Highways

            SC Highway Patrol reported a tree down in
            the roadway at the intersection of Old
            Jackson Hwy and Musterfield Rd. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

gpl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
231 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCZ022-028-029-031-121915-
Richland SC-Kershaw SC-Sumter SC-Lee SC-
231 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lee,
northwestern Sumter, northeastern Richland and southwestern Kershaw
Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Oakland, or 9 miles northwest of Shaw Air Base,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Sumter, Shaw Air Base, Lugoff, Oakland, Sumter County
Airport, Elgin, Millwood, Cane Savannah, Dalzell, Dinkins Mill,
Boykin, Wateree River Correctional Institution, Cherryvale, Rembert,
Stateburg, Woodrow, Oswego, and Wedgewood.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 82
and 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 8089 3426 8081 3407 8023 3387 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 295DEG 18KT 3407 8059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
232 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCZ116-121915-
Southern Lancaster SC-
232 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Lancaster County through 315 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fishing Creek Reservoir, or near Lancaster, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Elgin, Heath Springs, USC Lancaster, Irwin, Fishing Creek
Reservoir, Bell Town Fire Station, Camp Creek Fire Station, Antioch,
Kirk Air Base, Faith Christian School, Pleasant Hill, Lancaster Mill,
McWhirter Airfield, Bear Creek Park, and McDonald Green Elementary
School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 8063 3454 8067 3457 8088 3460 8089
      3467 8089 3469 8086 3474 8088 3476 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 281DEG 6KT 3466 8088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
236 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCZ031-037-038-137-121915-
Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Calhoun SC-Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-
236 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Calhoun, southern Clarendon and southwestern Sumter Counties through
315 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Matthews, or 14 miles northeast of Brookdale, moving east at 20
mph.

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Manning, St. Matthews, Summerton, Santee Cooper Regional Airport,
Rimini, St. Paul, Fort Motte, Stumphole Landing, Foreston, Davis
Station, Creston, Lone Star, and Low Falls Landing.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 103 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 8010 3350 8012 3348 8015 3363 8087
      3377 8080 3367 8001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 287DEG 17KT 3368 8068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CRL