Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1241 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Area is in a slight risk for severe storms today and tomorrow.
Included mesoanalysis for early this afternoon. Aviation
discussion updated for 18z.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms each afternoon through Monday with heavy
  rain and frequent lightning. Damaging wind gusts possible in
  strongest storms, especially today and tomorrow.

- 2. Hot and humid this weekend with cooler temperatures next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms each afternoon through Monday with heavy
rain and frequent lightning. Damaging wind gusts possible in
strongest storms, especially today and tomorrow.

Active pattern will continue this weekend into early next week.
Upper ridging has shifted offshore with a more zonal pattern
developing aloft. This has led to subtle shortwaves passing
through an unstable air mass with lingering above average heat
and humidity continuing through the weekend. Highly unstable air
mass has already developed today with RAP analysis indicating
sbCAPE is already exceeding 3000 J/kg. With GOES satellite
imagery showing a lingering boundary in the NW portion of the
area from lingering convection earlier this morning, expect
sufficient forcing to lead to scattered storms continuing
through this afternoon. While shear remains fairly weak,
generally weak to moderate cloud layer flow, the environment
does support wet microbursts through the afternoon with low
level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km and TEI above 25C. Damaging
wind gusts expected to be the primary threat with a slight risk
for severe weather from SPC today.

Tomorrow, an upper low approaches the area with a somewhat
similar environment expected with strong destabilization and
potential for wet microbursts once again with a slight risk
continuing across much of the forecast area. Depending on the
evolution of convection over the next 24 to 48 hours, we may
need to monitor some spots for potential flash flooding,
although storm motion should be sufficient to prevent
significant flooding concerns outside of any training.

Monday, a cold front drops towards the forecast area, providing
additional forcing for convection, although lingering storms
Sunday night into Monday morning may prevent as significant
destabilization with cooler temperatures expected. Will need to
continue to monitor a potential flash flood threat, keeping in
mind this will depend significant on antecedent conditions from
Saturday and Sunday. In general, ensemble means have trended
much slower with the advancement of dry air into the area next
week and conditions may remain unsettled into the middle of next
week with ensemble means keeping PWATs greater than 2 inches
through Tuesday and with only a somewhat marginal decrease
Wednesday into Thursday.

Key Message 2: Hot and humid this weekend with cooler
temperatures next week.

Hot and humid conditions expected both today and tomorrow with
max temperatures likely reached early afternoon for many
locations before the onset of significant convection. Heat
indices likely still rising into the triple digits Saturday and
Sunday with any decrease in temperatures offset by the increase
in dew points. Blended guidance has creeped up slightly in the
last several runs on temperatures for Monday and Tuesday as
increasing confidence in the front lingering near the area,
preventing a significantly cooler air mass from moving in with a
decent temperature gradient expected from north to south. Still
expect below average temperatures Monday and Tuesday, which
feels like a win. This will likely be short lived, however, as
the air mass likely recovers for the second half of the week
with temperatures near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist outside of thunderstorm
activity this afternoon.

We have had an early start to the convection this afternoon. A
remnant shortwave is pushing out of the Appalachians and into the
coastal plain of the Carolinas this afternoon. Moisture is rich and
there is plenty of instability, so we are expecting numerous showers
and thunderstorms to continue initiating this afternoon and evening.
Area TAF sites will be prone to this but it is uncertain who will
get what and when. The result is a prevailing VCTS this afternoon
with a PROB30 for impactful storms. May need a tempo group (or a
brief prevailing group) if storms are expected to directly impact a
site. Gusts of 30-40 knots (or higher) are possible with convection
today as well as visibility restrictions between 1sm and 2sm.
Convection will likely wane between 22z and 02z this evening as we
expect the atmosphere to be pretty well worked over by that point.
Light winds and convective cloud debris will remain through the
night, with ceilings likely between 15kft and 20kft through the
night. Another round of strong thunderstorms is expected on Sunday
afternoon (likely just after this period ends), with widespread
cumulus again developing by 15z Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
storms Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CRL
AVIATION...GPL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1003 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SW Jefferson          34.60N 80.45W
07/10/2026                   Lancaster          SC   Dept of Highways

            SC Department of Public Safety reported a
            tree down in the roadway along Watermark Rd.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

gpl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1214 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

SCZ020>022-028-029-031-111715-
Fairfield SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-Kershaw SC-Sumter SC-Lee SC-
1214 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Fairfield, west
central Lee, eastern Newberry, northwestern Sumter, northern Richland
and Kershaw Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1214 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monticello, or near VC Summer Nuclear Station, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Winnsboro, Lake Wateree Dam, VC Summer Nuclear Station,
Lugoff, Fairfield County Airport, Jenkinsville, Cassatt, Elgin, Lake
Carolina, Monticello, Longtown, Goodale State Park, Lake Wateree
State Park, Blythewood, Ridgeway, Peak, Lebanon Fire Station, North
Central High School, and North Towne Square Shopping Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 85 and 106.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 24 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 8048 3425 8137 3444 8128 3448 8110
      3447 8089 3446 8088 3447 8086 3444 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 279DEG 35KT 3433 8123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1239 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

SCZ018-020-025-026-111745-
Newberry SC-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
1239 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Newberry, northern Edgefield, Saluda and McCormick Counties through
145 PM EDT...

At 1239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Abbeville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edgefield, Saluda, McCormick, Johnston, Prosperity, Saluda County
Airport, Mccormick County Airport, Lake Greenwood, Bradley,
Silverstreet, Ward, Strom Thurmond High School, Bordeaux, Saluda Co
Sheriff's Office, Good Hope, Northside Fire Station Main, Hollywood
Elementary School, Emory, Chappells Fire Station, and Cleora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8253 3408 8248 3406 8245 3406 8233
      3397 8230 3402 8224 3398 8220 3398 8205
      3395 8203 3396 8201 3413 8187 3420 8194
      3431 8188 3422 8155 3374 8175 3395 8255
      3401 8259 3402 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 286DEG 24KT 3410 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1256 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NNW Oswego            34.10N 80.31W
07/10/2026                   Lee                SC   Public

            A microburst caused significant damage in
            the Ashwood community with pictures sent of
            several snapped and uprooted trees.

&&

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

SCZ020>022-027-028-116-111815-
Fairfield SC-Lexington SC-Southern Lancaster SC-Newberry SC-
Richland SC-Kershaw SC-
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Fairfield,
southwestern Lancaster, Newberry, north central Lexington,
northwestern Richland and west central Kershaw Counties through 215
PM EDT...

At 110 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking numerous strong
thunderstorms, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newberry, Winnsboro, VC Summer Nuclear Station, Whitmire, Elgin,
Prosperity, Fairfield County Airport, Villages at Sandhill,
Jenkinsville, Newberry College, Killian, Lake Carolina, Monticello,
Newberry County Airport, Longtown, Blair, Lake Wateree State Park,
Blythewood, Chapin, and Ridgeway.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina near mile marker 82.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 62 and 96.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 21 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8072 3410 8082 3417 8143 3430 8190
      3437 8178 3444 8173 3446 8169 3453 8164
      3449 8157 3445 8154 3449 8149 3449 8146
      3450 8142 3456 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 282DEG 20KT 3442 8137

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
121 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

SCZ029-031-038-111815-
Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-Lee SC-
121 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Lee,
northeastern Clarendon and central Sumter Counties through 215 PM
EDT...

At 121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sumter County Airport, or near Shaw Air Base, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sumter, South Sumter, Shaw Air Base, Mulberry, Oakland, Woods Bay
State Park, Sumter County Airport, Millwood, Turbeville, Mayesville,
Lynchburg, Oswego, Dalzell, Dinkins Mill, East Sumter, St. Charles,
Cherryvale, Gable, Rembert, and Shiloh.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 129 and 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 7992 3381 7995 3377 8000 3395 8060
      3411 8053 3407 8002 3403 7997 3401 7991
      3399 7989 3395 7998 3388 7994 3388 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 282DEG 20KT 3401 8042

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL