Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1241 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Area is in a slight risk for severe storms today and tomorrow.
Included mesoanalysis for early this afternoon. Aviation
discussion updated for 18z.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms each afternoon through Monday with heavy
  rain and frequent lightning. Damaging wind gusts possible in
  strongest storms, especially today and tomorrow.

- 2. Hot and humid this weekend with cooler temperatures next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms each afternoon through Monday with heavy
rain and frequent lightning. Damaging wind gusts possible in
strongest storms, especially today and tomorrow.

Active pattern will continue this weekend into early next week.
Upper ridging has shifted offshore with a more zonal pattern
developing aloft. This has led to subtle shortwaves passing
through an unstable air mass with lingering above average heat
and humidity continuing through the weekend. Highly unstable air
mass has already developed today with RAP analysis indicating
sbCAPE is already exceeding 3000 J/kg. With GOES satellite
imagery showing a lingering boundary in the NW portion of the
area from lingering convection earlier this morning, expect
sufficient forcing to lead to scattered storms continuing
through this afternoon. While shear remains fairly weak,
generally weak to moderate cloud layer flow, the environment
does support wet microbursts through the afternoon with low
level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km and TEI above 25C. Damaging
wind gusts expected to be the primary threat with a slight risk
for severe weather from SPC today.

Tomorrow, an upper low approaches the area with a somewhat
similar environment expected with strong destabilization and
potential for wet microbursts once again with a slight risk
continuing across much of the forecast area. Depending on the
evolution of convection over the next 24 to 48 hours, we may
need to monitor some spots for potential flash flooding,
although storm motion should be sufficient to prevent
significant flooding concerns outside of any training.

Monday, a cold front drops towards the forecast area, providing
additional forcing for convection, although lingering storms
Sunday night into Monday morning may prevent as significant
destabilization with cooler temperatures expected. Will need to
continue to monitor a potential flash flood threat, keeping in
mind this will depend significant on antecedent conditions from
Saturday and Sunday. In general, ensemble means have trended
much slower with the advancement of dry air into the area next
week and conditions may remain unsettled into the middle of next
week with ensemble means keeping PWATs greater than 2 inches
through Tuesday and with only a somewhat marginal decrease
Wednesday into Thursday.

Key Message 2: Hot and humid this weekend with cooler
temperatures next week.

Hot and humid conditions expected both today and tomorrow with
max temperatures likely reached early afternoon for many
locations before the onset of significant convection. Heat
indices likely still rising into the triple digits Saturday and
Sunday with any decrease in temperatures offset by the increase
in dew points. Blended guidance has creeped up slightly in the
last several runs on temperatures for Monday and Tuesday as
increasing confidence in the front lingering near the area,
preventing a significantly cooler air mass from moving in with a
decent temperature gradient expected from north to south. Still
expect below average temperatures Monday and Tuesday, which
feels like a win. This will likely be short lived, however, as
the air mass likely recovers for the second half of the week
with temperatures near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist outside of thunderstorm
activity this afternoon.

We have had an early start to the convection this afternoon. A
remnant shortwave is pushing out of the Appalachians and into the
coastal plain of the Carolinas this afternoon. Moisture is rich and
there is plenty of instability, so we are expecting numerous showers
and thunderstorms to continue initiating this afternoon and evening.
Area TAF sites will be prone to this but it is uncertain who will
get what and when. The result is a prevailing VCTS this afternoon
with a PROB30 for impactful storms. May need a tempo group (or a
brief prevailing group) if storms are expected to directly impact a
site. Gusts of 30-40 knots (or higher) are possible with convection
today as well as visibility restrictions between 1sm and 2sm.
Convection will likely wane between 22z and 02z this evening as we
expect the atmosphere to be pretty well worked over by that point.
Light winds and convective cloud debris will remain through the
night, with ceilings likely between 15kft and 20kft through the
night. Another round of strong thunderstorms is expected on Sunday
afternoon (likely just after this period ends), with widespread
cumulus again developing by 15z Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
storms Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CRL
AVIATION...GPL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

GAZ063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-035-111930-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Columbia GA-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-
McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDuffie, Columbia,
north central Burke, Richmond, southwestern Edgefield, central
Barnwell, Aiken and southern McCormick Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harlem, or near Grovetown, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, North Augusta, Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Fort Gordon,
Augusta, Clearwater, Savannah River Site, Martinez, Aiken Mall,
Belvedere, Hephzibah, Williston, Harlem, New Ellenton, Jackson,
Glendale, South Augusta, and Summerville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 166 and 201.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 0 and 19.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 15.
 Interstate 520 in South Carolina between mile markers 16 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8264 3361 8263 3363 8261 3366 8137
      3320 8141 3329 8231 3331 8234 3331 8239
      3334 8246 3334 8251 3336 8253 3336 8255
      3341 8255 3346 8259 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 277DEG 37KT 3347 8229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

SCZ038-137-111915-
Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Clarendon SC-
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Clarendon and southeastern Orangeburg Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Santee Cooper Regional Airport, or 12 miles south of Manning, moving
east at 25 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Holly Hill, Summerton, Santee Cooper Regional Airport, Santee,
Eutawville, Vance, St. Paul, Rocks Pond Campground and Marina,
Foreston, Eautaw Springs, Indian Bluff Recreation Park, Davis
Station, Blounts Landing, and Mill Creek Marina and Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 near mile marker 169.
 Interstate 95 between mile markers 86 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 8010 3350 8012 3348 8015 3346 8013
      3345 8015 3346 8016 3345 8022 3330 8025
      3327 8030 3328 8035 3326 8036 3326 8043
      3329 8049 3333 8050 3331 8055 3339 8057
      3367 8035 3363 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 277DEG 21KT 3352 8026

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     South Congaree          33.91N 81.14W
07/11/2026                   Lexington          SC   Law Enforcement

            SCHP reported tree down at Ramblin Rd and
            Main St in South Congaree.

0217 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Columbia Metro Apt 33.95N 81.13W
07/11/2026                   Lexington          SC   Law Enforcement

            SCHP reported tree down at Platt Springs Rd
            and W Cargo Dr.

&&

CRL

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Columbia SC
335 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Gadsden           33.88N 80.78W
07/11/2026                   Richland           SC   Dept of Highways

            Tree in roadway on Congaree Road. Time
            estimated from radar.

0254 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ENE McEntire JNGB     33.94N 80.75W
07/11/2026                   Richland           SC   Dept of Highways

            Tree in roadway. Time estimated from radar.

0237 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Woodford           33.65N 81.14W
07/11/2026                   Orangeburg         SC   Dept of Highways

            Tree in roadway on US178. Time estimated
            from radar.

0220 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Cayce              33.94N 81.09W
07/11/2026                   Lexington          SC   Dept of Highways

            Dept of highways reports power lines in
            roadway on Overland Drive. Time estimated by
            radar.

0243 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Sandy Run         33.78N 80.98W
07/11/2026                   Calhoun            SC   Amateur Radio

            Calhoun County FD responding to reports of a
            few trees and power lines down along Valley
            Ridge Road. Relayed via amateur radio.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
345 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WNW Grovetown         33.47N 82.26W
07/11/2026                   Columbia           GA   911 Call Center

            Columbia County Dispatch reported trees down
            at Old Louisville Rd and Louisville Rd.

&&

CRL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
352 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Owens Field       33.93N 80.97W
07/11/2026                   Richland           SC   Emergency Mngr

            Richland County EM reports tree down on
            residence on Mellowood Drive.

0233 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Owens Field       33.99N 80.96W
07/11/2026                   Richland           SC   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on power lines with active fire.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&