Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Columbia, SC

832 
WWUS52 KCAE 190005
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

SCC039-079-190015-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260619T0015Z/
Fairfield SC-Richland SC-
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND
EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3391 8060 3424 8064 3447 8084 3478 8055
      3448 8013 3445 8012 3436 8029 3432 8024
      3437 8018 3432 8017 3423 8011 3420 8011
      3416 8016 3409 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 238DEG 43KT 3450 8067 3432 8047 3409 8041 

$$

SCC025-055-057-061-085-190015-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260619T0015Z/
Lancaster SC-Lee SC-Chesterfield SC-Sumter SC-Kershaw SC-
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER...LEE...SOUTHWESTERN CHESTERFIELD...
NORTHWESTERN SUMTER AND KERSHAW COUNTIES...

At 805 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Westville to near Goodale State Park to 7 miles
northwest of Sumter County Airport, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Sumter, Camden, Bishopville, Lake Wateree Dam, Shaw Air Base,
Kershaw, Heath Springs, Westville, Oakland, Cassatt, Liberty Hill,
Elliott, Lee State Park, Mt Pisgah, Goodale State Park, Sumter County
Airport, Mcbee, Jefferson, Bethune, and Lucknow.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 96
and 126.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8060 3424 8064 3447 8084 3478 8055
      3448 8013 3445 8012 3436 8029 3432 8024
      3437 8018 3432 8017 3423 8011 3420 8011
      3416 8016 3409 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 238DEG 43KT 3450 8067 3432 8047 3409 8041 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

EC

779 
WWUS52 KCAE 190014
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
814 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

SCC025-055-057-061-085-190023-
/O.EXP.KCAE.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260619T0015Z/
Lancaster SC-Lee SC-Chesterfield SC-Sumter SC-Kershaw SC-
814 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER...
LEE...SOUTHWESTERN CHESTERFIELD...NORTHWESTERN SUMTER AND KERSHAW
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3391 8060 3424 8064 3447 8084 3478 8055
      3448 8013 3445 8012 3436 8029 3432 8024
      3437 8018 3432 8017 3423 8011 3420 8011
      3416 8016 3409 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 238DEG 43KT 3455 8058 3437 8038 3414 8032 

$$

EC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe thunderstorm risk has increased a bit and could
persist overnight into early Friday morning. Northward trends
in the axis of heaviest rainfall have continued, but this axis
is still near the northern FA. Aviation Discussion updated for
18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and severe weather are
  possible this afternoon into Friday morning.

- 2. A more typical summer-like pattern returns for the weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and severe weather
are possible this afternoon into Friday morning.

Overview: The remnants of Arthur are pushing across the Deep
South early this afternoon and are expected to continue pushing
northeastward toward the FA the remainder of the day and
tonight. A tightening pressure gradient is bringing gusts of
20-30 mph that should continue the remainder of the afternoon
and into this evening. Deep moisture is already making its
presence known with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and
PWAT's nearing 2.0" across the CWA. The first wave of scattered
showers and storms are already developing in the region as a
uncapped and unstable airmass is in place. A couple strong to
severe storms with the main risk of damaging winds gusts will be
possible with this activity before the main surge of moisture
and widespread rain/thunderstorms moves in this evening and
tonight. A strengthening wind field will aid in bringing an
increased tornado risk in thunderstorms this evening and
overnight, but damaging wind gusts are expected to remain the
main severe hazard. As has been advertised, the main threat
continues to be the potential heavy rainfall this evening into
early Friday morning, where very efficient rain rates are
expected and isolated flash flooding will be possible. Wind
gusts overnight could near 35-45 mph as is still supported in
recent 12z guidance, but some of this appears to be convectively
enhanced rather than purely synoptic winds. Overall, with the
timing of the main hazards being this evening and overnight, be
sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Heavy Rainfall: There has not been a major change in the
outlook for rainfall outside of the 12z suite of CAM's
continuing to drift the axis of heaviest rain closer to the
Upstate/northern Midlands. Majority of the CWA remains in WPC's
Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall today into
Friday morning. As mentioned in the overview, PWAT's are
already nearing 2" and should continue surging toward 2.20-2.40"
this evening and overnight. As this moisture increases with the
approaching upper wave and remnant low level circulation moving
near the northern FA, IVT values are now forecast to reach near
climatological maximum values as a robust 50-65 kt LLJ moves
into the FA. Some guidance continues to indicate this LLJ could
be a bit stronger (near 70 kts) like the 12z NAM and NAM 3k.
This impressive LLJ coupled with the aforementioned PWAT's, warm
cloud layer depths nearing 14,000 to 15,000 ft, and lingering
instability sets the stage for the advertised efficient rain
rates. As mentioned above, the 12z suite of guidance generally
has shifted the axis of highest totals a bit further north
toward the Upstate and northern Midlands, closer to where the
remnant low level circulation is forecast to move. Due to this,
widespread amounts near 0.50-1.50" still seems reasonable, but
pockets of 2-4" could be in the cards, especially along and
north of the I-20 corridor. These higher amounts could be
realized mainly where training of convection occurs tonight.
This axis appears heavily dependent on the track of the low
level circulation so shifts may occur still. Due to this, a
Flood Watch still does not seem warranted considering the
potential shifts in the axis of greater amounts and that 2"+
amounts appear fairly scattered.

Severe Weather: The main change to the forecast comes with the
potential severe weather this evening and overnight tonight as
the FA is now bisected along the I-20 corridor by a Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 5) for severe weather north of I-20 and a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) south of here. Any isolated
strong to severe storm this afternoon is in a weakly sheared
environment (0-6km shear under 15 kts), but MLCAPE values are
now exceeding 1500-2000 J/kg as strong heating occurs in in the
very moist airmass. DCAPE values are a bit marginal still
(500-800 J/kg), but sufficient for precip loaded downburst
potential (TEI values currently near 25) and thus bringing the
isolated damaging wind gust threat into this evening. This
evening and overnight is when kinematics improve as the remnant
core of Arthur moves in with it's low level circulation. These
improved wind fields can already been seen from the 17z VAD
profile in Mobile, AL where a layer of 45-50 kt winds is seen
from ~500m up to ~4km. This is bringing 1km shear values up to
near 30 kts with SRH in this layer exceeding 150-200 m^2/s^2.
This area of enhanced low level helicity along the track of the
low level circulation is expected to move in late this evening
and overnight, bringing the increased risk for a few tornados,
mainly along/north of I-20. With the increased shear profiles,
convection could organize as clusters or potential linear
segments as depicted in recent HRRR runs. Either mode will bring
the main hazard of damaging wind gusts tonight, but any linear
segments could bring the increased tornado risk as southwesterly
40-45 kt 3km shear vectors would be favorably oriented with
north-south linear segments for the development of mesovortices.

Wind Gusts: A tightening surface pressure gradient this
afternoon and evening is bringing gusts to 25-30 mph before the
increasing wind field aloft and aforementioned LLJ may aid in
bring gusts of 35- 45 mph overnight and into early Friday
morning. A couple higher gusts in eastern spots cannot be ruled
out. The forecast situation around these gusts is a bit complex
as these could be partially attributed to the mostly intact core
of the remnants from Arthur, but with likely on-going
convection overnight, some of these winds could be convectively
enhanced rather than purely synoptic. Also, BUFKIT soundings are
not particularly aggressive in terms of mixing down some of the
50kt+ LLJ with fairly neutral conditions near the surface in
terms of mixing. Despite these complications, the signal remains
across 12z high-res guidance and in the latest HREF where
probabilities for gusts greater than 40 mph has increased
slightly toward 40-60%, highest along and south of the I-20
corridor. Overall, expect breezy winds the remainder of today
before stronger winds will be possible tonight into Friday
morning, associated both with convection and synoptic winds. One
other note worth mentioning is saturated soils from the
discussed heavy rainfall may make some trees more susceptible to
falling in stronger winds tonight.

Key Message 2: A more typical summer-like pattern returns for
the weekend into next week.

After the remnants of Arthur move out of the area, a front is
expected to slide through the FA Friday afternoon/evening,
bringing isolated to scattered shower/storm chances. Slightly
drier conditions are expected behind the front this weekend, but
with warming temperatures into the low 90s. Multiple
disturbances are forecast to move through upper zonal flow,
bringing a more summer- like pattern of diurnal thunderstorm
chances as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with scattered convection this afternoon and evening.
Widespread rain tonight with restrictions developing.

Thunderstorms are beginning to move into the CSRA and impact the
Augusta terminals early this afternoon with tsra likely
continuing into this evening. A bit of uncertainty to the
northern terminals as higher resolution guidance indicates not
as high of instability owing to warmer temperatures aloft. This
may limit tsra threat this afternoon and evening, although have
included a prob30 group. Winds remain gusty into tonight with
gusts around 20 knots continuing consistently and enhanced gusts
possible at times tonight as the remnants of TS Arthur move into
the area. This will lead to strengthening winds aloft, although
surface winds should remain elevated enough to prevent llws
criteria to be reached. Widespread moderate to heavy rain moves
over the terminals tonight, although generally guidance keeps
visibility above 3sm, think there will be a brief period of IFR
visibilities possible, especially at the Augusta terminals.
Similarly ceilings will likely be predominantly MVFR but may
drop to IFR at times, lingering into Friday morning. Breezy
winds continue Friday, although drier air will start to move
into the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally driven convection can be
anticipated heading into the weekend, although coverage will be
isolated with higher coverage next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
622 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Augusta Bush Field 33.40N 82.00W
06/18/2026                   Richmond           GA   Trained Spotter

            Large branches down.

&&

EC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
628 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Burnettown          33.50N 81.85W
06/18/2026                   Aiken              SC   Law Enforcement

            Tree fell in front of police officers car at
            Lee Drive and Janson St. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

EC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
632 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     North Augusta           33.52N 81.95W
06/18/2026                   Aiken              SC   Law Enforcement

            North Augusta Police report tree fell across
            two cars and took out a power line at Chalet
            N Ct.

&&

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
644 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

SCZ030-035-041-135-136-182330-
Central Orangeburg SC-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-Bamberg SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
644 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Barnwell, northwestern Bamberg, southeastern Aiken and northwestern
Orangeburg Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Aiken State Park to near Williston to 6
miles east of Barnwell. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Barnwell, Denmark, Williston, Blackville, Barnwell State Park, North,
Springfield, Hilda, Neeses, Norway, Elko, Cordova, Livingston, Cope,
Bamberg County Airport, Barnwell County Airport, and Edisto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 8136 3336 8145 3347 8145 3368 8102
      3367 8101 3358 8097 3340 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 240DEG 29KT 3353 8141 3339 8138 3323 8125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 ENE Parksville        33.83N 82.11W
06/18/2026                   Edgefield          SC   Dept of Highways

            SCDPS reports Tree down across Plum Branch
            Rd northwest of Edgefield.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NE Gilbert            34.00N 81.36W
06/18/2026                   Lexington          SC   Public

            Minor tree damage reported with brief 60 mph
            wind gusts estimated.

&&