Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Columbia, SC

488 
WWUS52 KCAE 181946
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
346 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

SCC003-063-182015-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260618T2015Z/
Lexington SC-Aiken SC-
346 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN AIKEN COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast
of Batesburg-Leesville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Pelion, Gilbert, Lexington County Airport At Pelion, Steedman,
Samaria Fire Station, Peachtree Rock, and Cedar Pond Campground.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 33
and 49.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8134 3375 8153 3396 8137 3379 8114
      3378 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 222DEG 21KT 3379 8140 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DH

412 
WWUS52 KCAE 181952
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

SCC003-063-182002-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260618T2015Z/
Lexington SC-Aiken SC-
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN AIKEN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3368 8134 3375 8153 3396 8137 3379 8114
      3378 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 222DEG 19KT 3381 8137 

$$

CRL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe thunderstorm risk has increased a bit and could
persist overnight into early Friday morning. Northward trends
in the axis of heaviest rainfall have continued, but this axis
is still near the northern FA. Aviation Discussion updated for
18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and severe weather are
  possible this afternoon into Friday morning.

- 2. A more typical summer-like pattern returns for the weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and severe weather
are possible this afternoon into Friday morning.

Overview: The remnants of Arthur are pushing across the Deep
South early this afternoon and are expected to continue pushing
northeastward toward the FA the remainder of the day and
tonight. A tightening pressure gradient is bringing gusts of
20-30 mph that should continue the remainder of the afternoon
and into this evening. Deep moisture is already making its
presence known with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and
PWAT's nearing 2.0" across the CWA. The first wave of scattered
showers and storms are already developing in the region as a
uncapped and unstable airmass is in place. A couple strong to
severe storms with the main risk of damaging winds gusts will be
possible with this activity before the main surge of moisture
and widespread rain/thunderstorms moves in this evening and
tonight. A strengthening wind field will aid in bringing an
increased tornado risk in thunderstorms this evening and
overnight, but damaging wind gusts are expected to remain the
main severe hazard. As has been advertised, the main threat
continues to be the potential heavy rainfall this evening into
early Friday morning, where very efficient rain rates are
expected and isolated flash flooding will be possible. Wind
gusts overnight could near 35-45 mph as is still supported in
recent 12z guidance, but some of this appears to be convectively
enhanced rather than purely synoptic winds. Overall, with the
timing of the main hazards being this evening and overnight, be
sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Heavy Rainfall: There has not been a major change in the
outlook for rainfall outside of the 12z suite of CAM's
continuing to drift the axis of heaviest rain closer to the
Upstate/northern Midlands. Majority of the CWA remains in WPC's
Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall today into
Friday morning. As mentioned in the overview, PWAT's are
already nearing 2" and should continue surging toward 2.20-2.40"
this evening and overnight. As this moisture increases with the
approaching upper wave and remnant low level circulation moving
near the northern FA, IVT values are now forecast to reach near
climatological maximum values as a robust 50-65 kt LLJ moves
into the FA. Some guidance continues to indicate this LLJ could
be a bit stronger (near 70 kts) like the 12z NAM and NAM 3k.
This impressive LLJ coupled with the aforementioned PWAT's, warm
cloud layer depths nearing 14,000 to 15,000 ft, and lingering
instability sets the stage for the advertised efficient rain
rates. As mentioned above, the 12z suite of guidance generally
has shifted the axis of highest totals a bit further north
toward the Upstate and northern Midlands, closer to where the
remnant low level circulation is forecast to move. Due to this,
widespread amounts near 0.50-1.50" still seems reasonable, but
pockets of 2-4" could be in the cards, especially along and
north of the I-20 corridor. These higher amounts could be
realized mainly where training of convection occurs tonight.
This axis appears heavily dependent on the track of the low
level circulation so shifts may occur still. Due to this, a
Flood Watch still does not seem warranted considering the
potential shifts in the axis of greater amounts and that 2"+
amounts appear fairly scattered.

Severe Weather: The main change to the forecast comes with the
potential severe weather this evening and overnight tonight as
the FA is now bisected along the I-20 corridor by a Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 5) for severe weather north of I-20 and a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) south of here. Any isolated
strong to severe storm this afternoon is in a weakly sheared
environment (0-6km shear under 15 kts), but MLCAPE values are
now exceeding 1500-2000 J/kg as strong heating occurs in in the
very moist airmass. DCAPE values are a bit marginal still
(500-800 J/kg), but sufficient for precip loaded downburst
potential (TEI values currently near 25) and thus bringing the
isolated damaging wind gust threat into this evening. This
evening and overnight is when kinematics improve as the remnant
core of Arthur moves in with it's low level circulation. These
improved wind fields can already been seen from the 17z VAD
profile in Mobile, AL where a layer of 45-50 kt winds is seen
from ~500m up to ~4km. This is bringing 1km shear values up to
near 30 kts with SRH in this layer exceeding 150-200 m^2/s^2.
This area of enhanced low level helicity along the track of the
low level circulation is expected to move in late this evening
and overnight, bringing the increased risk for a few tornados,
mainly along/north of I-20. With the increased shear profiles,
convection could organize as clusters or potential linear
segments as depicted in recent HRRR runs. Either mode will bring
the main hazard of damaging wind gusts tonight, but any linear
segments could bring the increased tornado risk as southwesterly
40-45 kt 3km shear vectors would be favorably oriented with
north-south linear segments for the development of mesovortices.

Wind Gusts: A tightening surface pressure gradient this
afternoon and evening is bringing gusts to 25-30 mph before the
increasing wind field aloft and aforementioned LLJ may aid in
bring gusts of 35- 45 mph overnight and into early Friday
morning. A couple higher gusts in eastern spots cannot be ruled
out. The forecast situation around these gusts is a bit complex
as these could be partially attributed to the mostly intact core
of the remnants from Arthur, but with likely on-going
convection overnight, some of these winds could be convectively
enhanced rather than purely synoptic. Also, BUFKIT soundings are
not particularly aggressive in terms of mixing down some of the
50kt+ LLJ with fairly neutral conditions near the surface in
terms of mixing. Despite these complications, the signal remains
across 12z high-res guidance and in the latest HREF where
probabilities for gusts greater than 40 mph has increased
slightly toward 40-60%, highest along and south of the I-20
corridor. Overall, expect breezy winds the remainder of today
before stronger winds will be possible tonight into Friday
morning, associated both with convection and synoptic winds. One
other note worth mentioning is saturated soils from the
discussed heavy rainfall may make some trees more susceptible to
falling in stronger winds tonight.

Key Message 2: A more typical summer-like pattern returns for
the weekend into next week.

After the remnants of Arthur move out of the area, a front is
expected to slide through the FA Friday afternoon/evening,
bringing isolated to scattered shower/storm chances. Slightly
drier conditions are expected behind the front this weekend, but
with warming temperatures into the low 90s. Multiple
disturbances are forecast to move through upper zonal flow,
bringing a more summer- like pattern of diurnal thunderstorm
chances as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with scattered convection this afternoon and evening.
Widespread rain tonight with restrictions developing.

Thunderstorms are beginning to move into the CSRA and impact the
Augusta terminals early this afternoon with tsra likely
continuing into this evening. A bit of uncertainty to the
northern terminals as higher resolution guidance indicates not
as high of instability owing to warmer temperatures aloft. This
may limit tsra threat this afternoon and evening, although have
included a prob30 group. Winds remain gusty into tonight with
gusts around 20 knots continuing consistently and enhanced gusts
possible at times tonight as the remnants of TS Arthur move into
the area. This will lead to strengthening winds aloft, although
surface winds should remain elevated enough to prevent llws
criteria to be reached. Widespread moderate to heavy rain moves
over the terminals tonight, although generally guidance keeps
visibility above 3sm, think there will be a brief period of IFR
visibilities possible, especially at the Augusta terminals.
Similarly ceilings will likely be predominantly MVFR but may
drop to IFR at times, lingering into Friday morning. Breezy
winds continue Friday, although drier air will start to move
into the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally driven convection can be
anticipated heading into the weekend, although coverage will be
isolated with higher coverage next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

GAZ065-077-181815-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Burke and
southwestern Richmond Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 152 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wrens to near Gough to near Emmalane.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Hephzibah, Midville, Alexander, Burke County Airport,
Gough, Blythe, Keysville, Vidette, Di-
Lane Wildlife Management Area, Bath-
Edie, Pea Patch Aerodrome, Magruder, Ellwood, Colemans Lake, and
Rosier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8231 3293 8227 3308 8229 3322 8223
      3326 8225 3328 8228 3336 8215 3302 8181
      3292 8196 3292 8208 3288 8213 3281 8215
      3280 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 236DEG 30KT 3314 8240 3301 8221 3277 8197

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

GAZ063-064-181900-
McDuffie GA-Columbia GA-
214 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDuffie and
Columbia Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 213 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thomson, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grovetown, Thomson, Harlem, Appling, Mistletoe State Park,
Thomson-McDuffie County Airport, Wrightsboro, Dearing, Winfield,
Sweetwater Park, Arties Pond Public Fishing Area, McDuffie County
Fire Department, Adamsville, Thomson Fire Department, McDuffie
Regional Medical Center, White Oak Campground, Autney, Boneville,
Columbia County Jail, and Wildwood Park.

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
191.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 8231 3347 8216 3332 8241 3333 8242
      3334 8244 3334 8250 3336 8253 3335 8255
      3341 8255 3346 8259 3355 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 241DEG 20KT 3344 8256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
216 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-181845-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Aiken SC-
216 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Burke,
southeastern Richmond and southwestern Aiken Counties through 245 PM
EDT...

At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waynesboro, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Hephzibah, Jackson, McBean, Augusta Regional Airport,
Shell Bluff Landing, Phinizy Swamp Nature Park, Audubon's Silver
Bluff Sanctuary, New Savannah Bluff Lock & Dam Park, Beech Island,
Savannah River Site H Canyon, and Bennock Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 8208 3314 8222 3343 8193 3328 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 228DEG 37KT 3315 8206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
246 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

GAZ065-SCZ030-181930-
Richmond GA-Aiken SC-
246 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Richmond and central Aiken Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jackson, or 9 miles southeast of Clearwater, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Aiken Mall, New Ellenton, Jackson, USC Aiken, Aiken Municipal
Airport, Citizens Park, Gloverville, Augusta Regional Airport, Aiken
State Park, Burnettown, Windsor, Audubon's Silver Bluff Sanctuary,
Hopeland Gardens, New Savannah Bluff Lock & Dam Park, Savannah River
Site Badge Office, Phinizy Swamp Nature Park, Redcliffe Plantation
State Historic Site, Boyd Pond Park, and Beech Island.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 23
and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8186 3338 8199 3373 8160 3360 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 224DEG 37KT 3339 8183

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH