Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
122 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this evening into
overnight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe
criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight).

2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold
front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the
potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this
evening into overnight, with a few storms having the potential to
reach severe criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and
Tonight).

Mid-level ridge axis will depart east today, allowing for the next
shortwave trough to pass northeastward out of the base of the
longwave trough placed over the western half of the CONUS.
Meanwhile, an associated surface low, currently over Lake Superior
this morning will progress northeast across Ontario and eventually
into Quebec today and tonight, where it will drag its cold front
across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to
3AM. However ahead of the front's arrival, Expect strong to severe
storms to spread from west to east around 5PM to 7PM this evening.
CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening),
combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential
for damaging wind gusts, which will be the main hazard type. Though
large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out as the
forecast profiles continue to highlight "fat" CAPE soundings along
with widespread 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2, with localized
pockets of 300-400 m^2/s^2 across far western NY. This all being
said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the
forecast region under a Slight Risk (Risk level 2 of 5), with the
best window for severe weather occurring between 6-7PM this evening
through 1-2AM tonight.

Forecast confidence waivers some, due to the time of arrival with
the activity being during a gradual loss of daytime heating, which
creates the question whether or not the line of activity will keep
up its intensity, especially later in the evening. Current thinking
continues to support the line arriving in western New York, before
splitting into two distinct areas, one passing north into the North
Country where it will become less potent, and the other segment
diving east-southeast across the western Southern Tier before it
gradually wanes overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake
of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday,
before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday
weekend.

In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air
and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later
half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The
coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the
50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures
heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and
a few locations reaching the low 70s.

While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure
will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return
of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Morning showers have dissipated within the last few hours, leaving
behind partly cloudy skies across the eastern Lake Ontario region
this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, ceilings remain VFR. Clouds
will continue to disperse for the next few hours, supporting VFR
conditions to prevail. A patch of mid-level cumulus will brush
across WNY towards the Genesee Valley in the next few hours, though
flight conditions will remain VFR. Otherwise outside of the clouds,
it is quite breezy today as the area lies between exiting high
pressure and an incoming cold front. Winds are gusting between 20 to
25 knots regionwide, with a localized maxima of up to 30 knots
across the Niagara Frontier.

As previously hinted at, a cold front will trudge east this
afternoon sparking a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable enough to support storms to
become severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large
hail and an isolated tornado. Storms are expected to arrive across
far Western New York around 23Z to 00Z and make their way east
across the region, with activity ending between 05Z and 06Z. Expect
localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger
storms.

In the wake of the cold front, ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR
during the later half of the night. Return of surface high pressure
Wednesday will support all TAF sites to return to VFR by the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low
pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching
cold front today is currently supporting the moderate
southwesterlies and Small Craft Advisory criteria waves on the
western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. There will be a brief
lull in the wind and wave action tonight, before winds shift to the
northwest and bring another round of Small Craft Advisory criteria
Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still
strong enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday.

Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into
overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across
the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail.

Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-201745-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evenign and
overnight. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 to 5)for severe weather
for much of the region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201745-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
overnight. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 to 5)for severe weather
for much of the region. Stronger storms may produce localized gusty
winds and higher waves. Large hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
834 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Lockport          43.16N 78.67W
05/19/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree and wires down near Akron St. and
            Davison Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
839 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Barker              43.31N 78.55W
05/19/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree brought down lines on Quaker Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
842 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Lewiston            43.17N 79.00W
05/19/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree and several wires down on Upper
            Mountain Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
847 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Middleport              43.20N 78.47W
05/19/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Large tree and wires down on Telegraph Rd
            near Vernon Street.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
855 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Medina              43.27N 78.39W
05/19/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Trees and wires down in Ridgeway.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
855 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYZ002-003-011-200130-
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
855 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT EASTERN ORLEANS...NORTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

At 855 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from near Holley to near Byron to near Oakfield. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Batavia, Brockport, Albion, Hilton, Hamlin Beach State Park, Le Roy,
Pembroke, Spencerport, Byron, Churchville, Oakfield, Holley, Point
Breeze, Lakeside Beach State Park, Kent, Riga, Clarendon, Gaines,
Kendall, and Stafford.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 47 and 48A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4298 7846 4300 7846 4321 7828 4338 7823
      4337 7777 4310 7780 4296 7796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 257DEG 40KT 4329 7808 4309 7818 4303 7831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PP