Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Buffalo, NY

386 
WWUS51 KBUF 200311
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1111 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYC045-049-075-200330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260520T0330Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-Oswego NY-
1111 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN LEWIS AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES...

At 1111 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fort Drum,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Drum, Carthage, Lowville, West Carthage, Adams,
Dexter, Glen Park, Herrings, and Kring Point State Park.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 37 and 52.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 7583 4439 7584 4431 7565 4408 7540
      4366 7545 4360 7609 4428 7605 4434 7602
      4435 7601 4434 7597 4440 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 258DEG 47KT 4406 7570 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Thomas

713 
WWUS51 KBUF 200328
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1128 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYC045-049-075-200337-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260520T0330Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-Oswego NY-
1128 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN LEWIS
AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 7583 4439 7584 4431 7565 4408 7540
      4366 7545 4360 7609 4428 7605 4434 7602
      4435 7601 4434 7597 4440 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 257DEG 49KT 4408 7552 

$$

Thomas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
937 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight,
with a few strong storms and an isolated severe storm possible.

2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of passing
cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the
potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening
into overnight, with a few strong storms and an isolated severe
storm possible.

A surface low, crossing Quebec tonight, will drag its cold front
across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to
3AM. However ahead of the front's arrival, strong to isolated severe
storms will spread from west to east this evening. Earlier CAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially from the late afternoon),
combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear supported strong to severe
wind gusts upstream of WNY, with some of those stronger winds
continuing this evening at times. The Storm Prediction Center
continues to highlight most of the forecast region under a
Marginal Risk (Risk level 1 of 5), with the best window for
strong storms occurring through 1-2AM tonight.

While the risk for strong to a few severe thunderstorms will
continue this evening, thunderstorms currently across WNY are
starting to weaken.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake
of passing cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday,
before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday
weekend.

In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air
and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later
half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The
coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the
50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures
heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and
a few locations reaching the low 70s.

While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure
will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return
of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the forecast
area through the overnight. Some gusty winds and heavy downpours
will be possible within showers, especially along and north of I90.
Reductions in flight cats will be possible in heavier showers to IFR
VSBYs. Outside of showers, mainly VFR CIGs through the evening will
lower to MVFR and then IFR through daybreak as a cold front crosses
the region. Higher terrain LIFR will be possible late tonight at
times.

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the passing
cold front. This will result in improving flight conditions after
daybreak on Wednesday, with all terminals expected to be VFR by
mid/late morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low
pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift to the northwest and bring another round of Small
Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be
somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop
through Wednesday.

Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into
overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across
the lakes producing gusty winds.

Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
         for LOZ043>045.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...EAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-201745-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evenign and
overnight. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 to 5)for severe weather
for much of the region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201745-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
overnight. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 to 5)for severe weather
for much of the region. Stronger storms may produce localized gusty
winds and higher waves. Large hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
855 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Medina              43.27N 78.39W
05/19/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Trees and wires down in Ridgeway.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
855 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYZ002-003-011-200130-
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
855 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT EASTERN ORLEANS...NORTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

At 855 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from near Holley to near Byron to near Oakfield. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Batavia, Brockport, Albion, Hilton, Hamlin Beach State Park, Le Roy,
Pembroke, Spencerport, Byron, Churchville, Oakfield, Holley, Point
Breeze, Lakeside Beach State Park, Kent, Riga, Clarendon, Gaines,
Kendall, and Stafford.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 47 and 48A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4298 7846 4300 7846 4321 7828 4338 7823
      4337 7777 4310 7780 4296 7796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 257DEG 40KT 4329 7808 4309 7818 4303 7831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
856 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSW Medina            43.17N 78.42W
05/19/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down in Shelby.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
857 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Albion                  43.25N 78.19W
05/19/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down in Albion.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
907 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Holley              43.27N 78.04W
05/19/2026                   Orleans            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking traffic on Ridge Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
919 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

NYZ003-004-011-013-014-200200-
Ontario NY-Livingston NY-Wayne NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
919 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN
LIVINGSTON...NORTHEASTERN GENESEE...MONROE AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 918 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from Hilton to near Spencerport to near Batavia. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Batavia, East Rochester,
Hilton, Webster, Fairport, Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Henrietta,
Penfield, Le Roy, Spencerport, Avon, Honeoye Falls, Caledonia,
Scottsville, and Churchville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 11 and 12.
 Interstate 90 between exits 46 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7785 4299 7817 4317 7792 4336 7782
      4337 7772 4328 7754 4332 7738 4333 7727
      4316 7732 4303 7743 4303 7749 4298 7749
      4292 7751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 267DEG 37KT 4330 7780 4317 7787 4303 7821

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PP