Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Buffalo, NY

884 
WHUS71 KBUF 101419
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1019 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

LOZ045-110200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.260510T1500Z-260511T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1019 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots expected, and waves to four
  feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

294 
WHUS71 KBUF 110133
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
933 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

LOZ045-110245-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-260511T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
933 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost possible tonight.

2) Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through Tuesday with
widespread frost Monday night.

3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods
of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost
possible tonight.

A few showers will be possible as the cold front gradually works
east through the region overnight. With the front to our east, we
should see mainly dry weather today but we still can't rule out a
stray shower or sprinkle. Otherwise...it will be cooler with
temperatures peaking in the 50s, maybe a few spots hit 60F this
afternoon.

Tonight...we should see mainly clear skies and decent
radiational cooling resulting in lows in the 30s inland away
from the lakes. With light winds we may see some patch frost,
especially in the colder Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake
Ontario (Lewis County).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through
Tuesday with widespread frost Monday night.

A mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
afternoon and evening, bringing a period of large scale ascent.
Despite the increase in forcing, deep moisture will be lacking with
just a shallow layer of low level moisture available. The best
chance of a few showers will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley and
northern NY where the strongest forcing will be found. Elsewhere,
expect mainly dry conditions with just a slight chance of a passing
light shower.

Surface high pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes Monday
night, settling overhead by Tuesday morning. Clearing skies and
diminishing winds in a cool airmass will allow for strong
radiational cooling. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s
areawide, with some upper 20s likely in the colder Southern Tier
Valleys and Tug Hill region. This will bring widespread frost and
freeze conditions Monday night through Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week
with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

A mid level trough over the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will
advance slowly east to the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, then
to the eastern seaboard Thursday night where it will evolve into a
mid level closed low. A surface low will take a similar track,
crossing the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday through early
Thursday.

A wing of warm advection and moisture transport will arrive ahead of
the system from west to east Tuesday night, with rain spreading into
the region. The slow moving mid level trough will continue to bring
ascent and deep moisture, supporting periods of rain Wednesday
through much of Thursday. Model guidance is in good agreement on the
overall timing and placement of rain Wednesday through Thursday, but
there is still considerable spread on rainfall amounts. Even the
higher end of the ensemble envelope would not produce enough
rainfall for any flooding, so while it will be unsettled, the rain
will not be too impactful.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers will be possible overnight with some MVFR cigs. With
the exit of the front, VFR will resume across all area terminals
today.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated winds behind the front will produce choppy conditions on
area lakes today, with the potential for near small craft advisory
levels on the east end of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds and wave
action expected Monday through Tuesday. The next chance of
Small Craft conditions possible by Wednesday as low pressure
sends a cold front towards the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110630-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-110630-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-
222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Cold temperatures will support widespread frost and freezing
conditions Monday night. Be prepared to protect any sensitive plants
from the cold.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-110630-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Clear skies and light winds will promote patchy frost in the colder
spots tonight. Take precaution to protect sensitive plants from the
cold.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Cold temperatures will support widespread frost and freezing
conditions Monday night. Be prepared to protect any sensitive plants
from the cold.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-110630-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Clear skies and light winds will promote patchy frost in the colder
spots tonight. Take precaution to protect sensitive plants from the
cold.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Cold temperatures will support widespread frost and freezing
conditions Monday night. Be prepared to protect any sensitive plants
from the cold.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Reynolds