Alert archive / New York / Frost Advisories in 2026
Frost Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this frost advisory at May 10, 2026, 12:33 PM EDT for 8 counties in New York. It took effect at May 10, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2026, 12:33 PM EDT (16:33 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 10, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- May 11, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1797 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 73 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 251 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
992 WWUS71 KBUF 101633 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1233 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085-111200- /O.NEW.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.260511T0300Z-260511T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 1233 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie Counties. Greatest coverage of frost will be inland from the lake shoreline. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left unprotected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ Thomas
2 follow-up statements
920 WWUS71 KBUF 110525 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 125 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085-111200- /O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260511T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 125 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will result in areas of frost formation. * WHERE...Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie Counties. Greatest coverage of frost will be inland from the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shores. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Frost could damage cold sensitive outdoor vegetation if left unprotected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ Hitchcock
708 WWUS71 KBUF 111154 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 754 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085-111300- /O.EXP.KBUF.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260511T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 754 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... Temperatures have risen and are no longer supportive of frost formation, therefore the Frost Advisory will be allowed to expire. $$ SGK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at May 10, 6:29 AM EDT, 6 hours 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost possible tonight. 2) Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through Tuesday with widespread frost Monday night. 3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
Area forecast discussion, May 10, 6:29 AM EDT, 6 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost possible tonight.
2) Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through Tuesday with
widespread frost Monday night.
3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods
of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost
possible tonight.
A few showers will be possible as the cold front continues to drift
off to our east this morning. After that...we should see mainly dry
weather today. Otherwise...it will be cooler with temperatures
peaking in the 50s, maybe a few spots hit 60F this afternoon.
Tonight...we should see mainly clear skies with see decent
radiational cooling resulting in lows in the 30s inland away from
the lakes. With light winds we may see some patch frost, especially
in the colder Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario (Lewis
County).
KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through
Tuesday with widespread frost Monday night.
A mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
afternoon and evening, bringing a period of large scale ascent.
Despite the increase in forcing, deep moisture will be lacking with
just a shallow layer of low level moisture available. The best
chance of a few showers will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley and
northern NY where the strongest forcing will be found. Elsewhere,
expect mainly dry conditions with just a slight chance of a passing
light shower.
Surface high pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes Monday
night, settling overhead by Tuesday morning. Clearing skies and
diminishing winds in a cool airmass will allow for strong
radiational cooling. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s
areawide, with some upper 20s likely in the colder Southern Tier
Valleys and Tug Hill region. This will bring widespread frost and
freeze conditions Monday night through Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week
with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
A mid level trough over the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will
advance slowly east to the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, then
to the eastern seaboard Thursday night where it will evolve into a
mid level closed low. A surface low will take a similar track,
crossing the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday through early
Thursday.
A wing of warm advection and moisture transport will arrive ahead of
the system from west to east Tuesday night, with rain spreading into
the region. The slow moving mid level trough will continue to bring
ascent and deep moisture, supporting periods of rain Wednesday
through much of Thursday. Model guidance is in good agreement on the
overall timing and placement of rain Wednesday through Thursday, but
there is still considerable spread on rainfall amounts. Even the
higher end of the ensemble envelope would not produce enough
rainfall for any flooding, so while it will be unsettled, the rain
will not be too impactful.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the cold front exits off to our east any MVFR-IFR cigs will
improve to VFR for the remainder of the TAF cycle.
Outlook...
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending
through the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated winds behind the front will produce choppy conditions on
area lakes today, with small craft conditions on the east end of
Lake Ontario. Lighter winds and wave action expected Monday and
lasts through Tuesday. The next chance of Small Craft conditions
possible by Wednesday as low pressure sends a cold front towards the
region.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
evening for LOZ045.
&&
DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...ARHazardous weather outlook, May 10, 2:22 AM EDT, 10 hours 11 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110630- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-110630- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- Livingston-Ontario- 222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Cold temperatures will support widespread frost and freezing conditions Monday night. Be prepared to protect any sensitive plants from the cold. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019>021-085-110630- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Clear skies and light winds will promote patchy frost in the colder spots tonight. Take precaution to protect sensitive plants from the cold. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Cold temperatures will support widespread frost and freezing conditions Monday night. Be prepared to protect any sensitive plants from the cold. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-110630- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 222 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Clear skies and light winds will promote patchy frost in the colder spots tonight. Take precaution to protect sensitive plants from the cold. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Cold temperatures will support widespread frost and freezing conditions Monday night. Be prepared to protect any sensitive plants from the cold. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Reynolds
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 8:09 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 32 min | |
| May 10, 4:14 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 18 hr |
Nearby
Frost Advisories in New York, 2026Every frost advisory in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.