Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2026
Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Apr 1, 2026, 3:59 PM EDT. It took effect at Apr 1, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 47 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 1, 2026, 3:59 PM EDT (19:59 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 1, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 3, 2026, 9:50 PM EDT
- In force
- 47 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted.
033 WHUS71 KBUF 011959 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 LEZ040-041-020900- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.260402T0300Z-260402T1500Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-020900- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.260402T0300Z-260403T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
6 follow-up statements
873 WHUS71 KBUF 020817 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 LEZ040-041-021500- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260402T1500Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-022000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260403T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
525 WHUS71 KBUF 021439 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 LEZ040-041-021545- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260402T1500Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 1039 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... Winds and waves are diminishing and are expected to continue dropping off through the afternoon...therefore the advisory will be allowed to expire. $$ LOZ042-043-022300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260403T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 1039 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ JJR
745 WHUS71 KBUF 021942 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 342 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 LEZ020-030900- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.260403T1200Z-260403T2100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 342 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-030900- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.260403T0100Z-260403T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 342 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-030900- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.260403T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 342 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-030900- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0000Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 342 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ JJR
718 WHUS71 KBUF 030834 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 434 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 LEZ040-041-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260403T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 434 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0000Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 434 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.260403T1200Z-260403T2100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 434 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 434 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds to 30 knots this morning becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots this afternoon and waves 3 to 6 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
877 WHUS71 KBUF 031947 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 LEZ040-041-040300- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-040300- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-040300- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-040300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
456 WHUS71 KBUF 040150 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 950 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-040300- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 950 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... $$ LEZ020-040300- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-260404T0300Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 950 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 1, 3:09 PM EDT, 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Another round of rain to affect the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes Region through tonight. 2) Active weather to persist Thursday into Friday. 3) More active wet weather to return Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 1, 3:09 PM EDT, 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
309 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Numerous river flood warnings are in effect. See FLWBUF and FLSBUF
text products or river forecasts and warnings on our website for
more details.
Rainfall probabilities and amounts have been increased for this
afternoon and tonight, particularly across the Southern Tier and
interior of the Finger Lakes. The Flood Watch has consequently been
extended until 8 AM Thursday for Southern Erie, Wyoming, Livingston,
Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of rain to affect the Southern Tier and interior of
the Finger Lakes Region through tonight.
2) Active weather to persist Thursday into Friday.
3) More active wet weather to return Saturday night into Sunday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of rain to affect the Southern Tier
and interior of the Finger Lakes Region through tonight.
The cold frontal boundary that crossed our region yesterday evening
has stalled out near the Mason-Dixon line...as multiple weak waves
of low pressure ripple eastward along this boundary. While the
southward push of the boundary did allow us to completely dry out
this morning...this will change again this afternoon and evening as
increasing frontogenetical forcing and channelled vorticity rides
east-northeastward along the tight thermal gradient found to the
north of the departed boundary. This will result in another round of
numerous to widespread rain showers working across areas south of
Buffalo and Rochester through the first half of tonight...with lower-
end rain chances extending as far north as Lake Ontario and portions
of the North Country. Guidance has trended a bit north with the axis
of the heaviest QPF...which unfortunately means the Southern Tier
and interior of the Finger Lakes now appear to have a decent
potential for another half inch to inch of rain during this time
frame...with a smaller subset of the guidance even suggesting a
chance of higher amounts than this close to the PA border. With this
in mind and given how saturated we currently are after yesterday and
the extemely wet March...really have no choice to extend the Flood
Watch for the above areas through 8 AM Thursday. Further north
amounts should be substantially lighter and unlikely to exacerbate
any ongoing flooding issues or cause new flooding...so have dropped
the Flood Watch across the Niagara Frontier...the other counties
along the south shore of Lake Ontario...and the North Country.
All this said...river/creek flooding along with poor drainage
flooding will continues...with additional details on this in the
hydrology section below.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather to persist Thursday into Friday.
Very late tonight and Thursday the frontal boundary will lift back
north again as a warm front in response to another wave of low
pressure lifting from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. The
next round of precipitation associated with the approach and passage
of the warm front fortunately looks to be substantially lighter and
will mainly be in the form of just plain rain. Some very limited/
spotty freezing rain cannot be completely ruled out across the
highest terrain of the North Country late tonight/early Thursday
morning before temperatures warm above freezing...however the sparse
coverage and low confidence in this actually materializing precludes
the need for an advisory at this time. Following the warm frontal
notably warmer air will overspread our region...and could lead to to
the development of enough weak instability to support some very low
thunderstorm chances across far southwestern NY in the afternoon...
though forcing by that time looks to be fairly weak.
Weak shortwave trough will continue to cross northeast across the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile at the
surface, a warm front, quickly followed by a cold front will pass
across the region Thursday night and Friday morning. However, due to
the weakening nature of the shortwave trough passing aloft, the
fronts too will lose intensity. Initially Thursday night, there will
be enough instability to support some showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms as moisture and warm air pools ahead of an incoming
cold front. As the weakening cold front passes across the region
Friday, expect chances for showers to persist.
Given the nature of the already sodden grounds across western and
north-central New York, additional rainfall will add to already high
flows on area creeks and rivers. Precipitation amounts for Thursday
night through Friday range from a few hundredths to a few tenths of
an inch.
KEY MESSAGE 3...More active wet weather to return Saturday night
into Sunday morning.
Heading into the later half of the weekend, a deep trough spread
across the lee side of the Rockies, Friday afternoon will deepen and
lift northeast into the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday night.
In turn this will support a pair of frontal boundaries (warm, then
cold) to pass across the region late this weekend. This being said,
in the wake of the warm front lifting north across the region
Saturday morning, ample warm moist air from the Gulf will spill
across the lower Great Lakes region. Despite limited instability
(MUCAPE of 250 to 750 J/kg) with ample shear, and PWAT values of
1.25 to 1.50 inches (approaching/surpassing climatological daily
maximum of around 1.3 inches on April 4). All of this combined, the
risk for thunderstorms and heavy rain will persist Saturday night
into Sunday, with the cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At the surface, a wavy front should waver near the OH Valley and
Mason-Dixon line through 12Z/Thurs. Thereafter, the front should
move northward to near the southern shore of Lake Erie and the NY/PA
border by 18Z/Thurs as a surface low moves northeastward across the
central Great Plains and Upper MS Valley. Simultaneously, a ridge
exits slowly northward and eastward from Western and North-Central
NY. This weather pattern evolution will cause regional surface winds
around 5 to 15 knots to veer gradually from northerly toward
southeasterly.
Widespread low-level ceilings, mainly in the MVFR to IFR range,
should persist through the TAF period due to a combination of moist
ascent along the upper-reaches of the front and moist low-level
upslope flow for a time. However, periodic LIFR ceilings are
forecast over the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier,
including at/near KJHW. Subtle disturbances aloft and moist ascent
along the upper-reaches of the front will allow periods of rain,
steady at times, to impact the region through 18Z/Thurs, especially
south of Lake Ontario. Visibility will vary between VFR and IFR in
rain.
Outlook...
Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Thurday afternoon through
Sunday. Occasional thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon
through Saturday night.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Light to modest northerlies this afternoon will veer east-
northeasterly and freshen across both lakes tonight out ahead of the
next wave of low pressure...then will linger into Thursday morning
across Lake Erie and through Thursday across Lake Ontario. This will
likely lead to a round of SCA conditions on Lake Ontario, and
possibly on Lake Erie...south of the remaining sheet of ice.
Following the passage of a warm front...rather brisk southerlies
appear likely across the eastern portion of Lake Ontario Thursday
night, and might also require a Small Craft Advisory.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, which started
Monday night, the 30th, and remained through Tuesday the 31st
brought a widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain, with localized heavier
amounts. In fact all three of our climate sites set a record
rainfall event for March 31st. This amount of rain within an already
very wet month of March has brought hydrological issues with many of
our creeks and rivers near to above bankfull.
Many creeks and rivers will remain in flood stage today and into
Thursday, including the Tonawanda Creek which is at moderate flood
stage at Batavia, and is forecast to peak in moderate flood stage at
Rapids. Several additional creeks and rivers will peak in minor
flood as displayed on FLWBUF/FLSBUF statements. Some of the slower
responding creeks such as Tonawanda Creek and the Black River are
likely to remain in flood through Friday.
With respect to the Flood Watch...have extended this through 8 AM
Thursday for the Southern Tier and interior Finger Lakes...where
another half inch to an inch of rain may fall on already saturated
ground through tonight...and could thus lead to additional flooding
issues. Across the rest of the area rainfall amounts should be
substantially lighter...and with any ongoing flooding issues already
covered by warnings...have thus dropped the Watch across the Niagara
Frontier...counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario...and the
North Country.
A look at the MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles suggests
that the peaks in the rivers/creeks late this week and into the
weekend with these subsequent periods of showers and thunderstorms
will be slightly lower than the early-mid week peaks. We will need
to watch the slower responding Tonawanda Creek and Black Rivers as
mid week peak levels may run into the late week/weekend rain events.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ012>014-019>021-
085.
MARINE...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...WFO CLE
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR/ThomasHazardous weather outlook, Apr 1, 3:09 PM EDT, 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 309 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 NYZ012>014-019>021-085-021915- Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- 309 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>008-010-011-021915- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee- 309 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-021915- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 309 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 8:03 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Genesee, Wyoming | 7 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:16 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Wyoming | 8 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:18 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Wyoming | 7 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:21 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee | 36 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:29 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Wyoming | 33 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:30 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Genesee, Monroe | 52 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:33 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Genesee, Monroe | 55 hr |
| Mar 31, 11:58 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Monroe, Ontario | 22 hr |
| Apr 1, 2:21 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Livingston, Monroe | 15 hr |
| Apr 1, 5:35 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 3 days |
| Apr 1, 5:55 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | BUF | Oswego | 6 days |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2026Every small craft advisory in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.