River Flood Warning 15, NWS Buffalo, NY

831 
WGUS81 KBUF 010919
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
519 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Genesee River At Avon affecting Monroe and Livingston Counties.

For the Genesee River...including Avon...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon by 530 PM EDT.

&&

NYC051-055-012130-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-260401T2231Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.260401T0550Z.260401T1200Z.260401T1630Z.NO/
519 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Genesee River at Avon.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Flood stage, river overflows at many areas 
  from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with 
  little damage to structures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 AM EDT Wednesday the stage was 33.47 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 30.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:15 AM EDT Wednesday was 33.47 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is near crest early this morning, and is
    expected to fall below flood stage this afternoon and
    continue falling to 22.4 feet early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    33.4 feet on 03/06/1979.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
      4279 7780 4278 7789


$$

Hitchcock

636 
WGUS81 KBUF 012115
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
515 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Genesee River At Avon affecting Monroe and Livingston Counties.

NYC051-055-012215-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-260401T2115Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.260401T0550Z.260401T1200Z.260401T1857Z.NO/
515 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Genesee River At Avon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 32.81 feet. Flood
    stage is 33.0 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 30.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 21.5 feet
    Saturday morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
      4279 7780 4278 7789


$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Numerous river flood warnings are in effect. See FLWBUF and FLSBUF
text products or river forecasts and warnings on our website for
more details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Respite from the heavy rain today and tonight.

2) Active weather will continue Thursday and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Respite from the heavy rain today and tonight.

A cold front will continue to slide southward, and exit our region
this morning, with the main axis of moisture and precipitation lying
just to our south. Rain showers today and into the evening hours are
expected to be lighter, and primary focus upon the Southern Tier,
giving some much needed dry time to the north from recent flooding
rains. River and creek flooding along with poor drainage flooding
will continue however...with additional details on this in the
hydrology section below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather will continue Thursday and through
the weekend.

Late tonight and into Thursday the frontal boundary that shifted
south of our region will once again lift northward as a warm front.
There could be a little snow or wintry mix towards the North Country
and SLV early Thursday morning before the frontal boundary, and its
associated warmer airmass lifts through our entire region.
Instability Thursday will feature MUCAPE values in the 250 to 750
J/KG range, which is still plenty for at least a slight chance for
thunderstorms across WNY Thursday, and then region wide Thursday
night to go along with likely rain showers as moisture pools ahead
of a cold front to our west.

A shortwave trough ejecting from the desert Southwest will bring a
low pressure cutting through the Central Great Lakes, with a cold
front swinging across our region Friday afternoon and night. A
second, now PACNW and larger scale shortwave trough will bring
another slightly deepening storm system through the Great Lakes
Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Modest instability ahead of
both these late week cold fronts will continue the risk for thunder,
while PWATs of 1.25 to 1.50 will continue the risk for heavy rain,
especially within any thunderstorms. Greatest chance for heavier
rain will be late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

Both cold fronts (Friday and again late Saturday night/Sunday
morning) will feature a 50 to 60 knot LLJ...which will bring a
period of gusty winds, especially northeast of Lake Erie where gusts
could reach towards 40 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will continue to move south of the area this morning.
The organized heavy rain and thunder has ended, but a few more light
showers will continue through the early morning hours. The rain will
end in most areas shortly after daybreak, with the exception of the
Southern Tier where light showers will persist today.

Northerly upslope flow in the wake of the departing cold front will
produce widespread low stratus with IFR CIGS through the morning
hours. Expect gradual improvement through the afternoon, with the
lower elevation lake plains becoming VFR by mid to late afternoon.
MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain through the
afternoon.

Tonight, the frontal boundary will remain stalled south of the area
across PA, then start to move north again towards Thursday morning.
MVFR/IFR CIGS and a few showers will continue across the Southern
Tier. The showers and lower CIGS will begin to move north again late
tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Periods of MVFR/IFR restrictions in
showers, with the chance of a few thunderstorms at times.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds today will feature a northerly direction following the
recently southward passage of a cold front. Generally light to
modest northerlies are expected across the waters. East-
northeasterlies will then freshen across both lakes Wednesday
night and Thursday out ahead of the next wave of low
pressure...and will likely lead to a round of SCA conditions on
Lake Ontario, and possibly Lake Erie...south of the remaining
sheet of ice.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, which started
Monday night, the 30th, and remained through Tuesday the 31st
brought widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain, with localized heavier
amounts. In fact all three of our climate sites set a record
rainfall event for March 31st. This amount of rain within an already
very wet month of March has brought hydrological issues with
many of our creeks and rivers near to above bankfull, for which
we will continue the flood watch for our entire region.

Expect many creeks and rivers to remain in flood stage today and
into tomorrow, including the Buffalo Creek, Cayuga Creek and
Tonawanda River which all are forecasted to peak in moderate flood
stage. Several additional creeks and rivers will peak in minor
flood as displayed on FLWBUF/FLSBUF statements. Some of the
slower responding creeks such as Tonawanda and the Black River
are likely to remain in flood through Friday. Outside of the
river and creek flooding, plenty of low lying flooding and
ponding of water will remain through the near term.

A look at the MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles suggests
that the peaks in the rivers/creeks late this week and into the
weekend with these subsequent periods of showers and thunderstorms
will be slightly lower than the early-mid week peaks. We will need
to watch the slower responding Tonawanda Creek and Black Rivers as
mid week peak levels may run into the late week/weekend rain events.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Thomas
HYDROLOGY...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-020615-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-020615-
Jefferson-Lewis-
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020615-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
823 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 NW Dunkirk            42.49N 79.35W
03/31/2026  M52 MPH          Chautauqua         NY   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DBLN6 3 NNW Fredonia.

&&

MB