Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Buffalo, NY

827 
WWUS51 KBUF 021712
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

NYC029-021722-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-260802T1730Z/
Erie NY-
112 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7864 4340 7845 4335 7847 4309 7847
      4310 7856 4307 7859 4310 7864 4309 7864
      4309 7873 4305 7883 4302 7884 4302 7889
      4304 7890 4306 7895 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4314 7904 4325 7906 4328 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 260DEG 27KT 4313 7879 

$$

NYC063-021730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-260802T1730Z/
Niagara NY-
112 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR NIAGARA COUNTY...

At 112 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pendleton, or
near Lockport, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Lockport, Tonawanda, Grand Island,
Newfane, Lewiston, Youngstown, Middleport, and Fort Niagara State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7864 4340 7845 4335 7847 4309 7847
      4310 7856 4307 7859 4310 7864 4309 7864
      4309 7873 4305 7883 4302 7884 4302 7889
      4304 7890 4306 7895 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4314 7904 4325 7906 4328 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 260DEG 27KT 4313 7879 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SGK

319 
WWUS51 KBUF 021720
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

NYC063-021730-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-260802T1730Z/
Niagara NY-
120 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NIAGARA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
130 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7864 4340 7845 4335 7847 4309 7847
      4310 7856 4307 7859 4310 7864 4309 7864
      4309 7873 4305 7883 4302 7884 4302 7889
      4304 7890 4306 7895 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4314 7904 4325 7906 4328 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 260DEG 27KT 4314 7871 

$$

SGK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch issued for all of western and north central New York
from 10 AM today to 2 AM Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight, with scattered instances of flash flooding possible.

2) Unsettled weather moves back into the region Wednesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through tonight, with scattered instances of flash flooding
possible.

A deep southerly flow with a plume of Gulf moisture will arrive
across the forecast area today. A wavy cold front will settle
across far western New York to the Saint Lawrence River through
this afternoon and will be the focus for heavy showers and
thunderstorms through this evening. Large scale ascent will aid
diurnally driven convection within a corridor of high moisture
content and deep (>11kft) warm cloud depths. Southerly winds
will be parallel to the front and result in the potential for
backbuilding/training as well as repeated rounds of storms.

A low pressure wave is expected to move along the frontal boundary
across the forecast area tonight, while remaining ahead of the
mid level trough axis. The core of the highest PWATS will shift
east tonight. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region with localized areas of heavy rainfall from
the Genesee Valley to the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Latest guidance continues to suggest the axis of heaviest rain is
across far western New York to the Saint Lawrence River. Basin
average rainfall amounts will range from 1-2" near this axis to 0.5-
1" farther east. Localized higher amounts of 3+ inches are possible.
Efficient rainfall rates and repeated rounds of showers/storms
from the slow moving system could result in localized flash
flooding through tonight, especially for urban areas and poor
drainage areas. A Flood Watch is in effect from 10 AM today
through 2 AM Monday.

Conditions will improve from west to east on Monday. The surface low
is expected to deepen as a shortwave trough drops south from Canada
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible
across the eastern Lake Ontario region through Monday afternoon.
High pressure builds across the region Monday night through Tuesday
night resulting in dry weather.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather moves back into the region
Wednesday through the end of the week.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms return to the region
Wednesday through Friday. An upper level trough will move into the
Great Lakes region and a return flow will bring moisture northward.
The synoptic pattern suggests deep southwesterly flow will persist
during this time. While confidence is low regarding timing and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms, chances are higher in the
afternoon to evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR flight conditions to start the TAF cycle, but a storm system to
our south will further increase moisture to the TAF region, which
will bring a widespread MVFR to low end VFR flight conditions along
with periods of rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Activity is
expected to be heaviest near KIAG/KBUF in vicinity of the stalling
frontal boundary today, with this activity persisting through the
remainder of the TAF cycle. An additional wave of heavier rain
across the Southern Tier and Genesee Valley this afternoon and
evening hours may impact KJHW and KROC. Downburst of rain will
likely bring IFR visibilities.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, however afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk for MVFR
conditions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A wavy cold front will slowly ease its way east from the central
Great Lakes and across Lakes Erie and Ontario through Monday. A
generally light to modest south to southeasterly flow out ahead
of the front will give way to a northerly/northeasterly flow of
similar strength following its passage.

Of more concern to marine interests will be the showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight that are expected to accompany the
approach and passage of the front, some of which could contain
locally heavy downpours/greatly reduced visibility and locally
higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from 10 AM EDT this morning through late tonight
     for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-030630-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-030630-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
228 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf