Flood Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

798 
WGUS61 KBUF 021738
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-030600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-260803T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
138 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
    through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with
    rainfall rates near, or exceeding 2 inches per hour at times.
    Repeated rounds of heavy rain over any given location could
    result in flash flooding.

  - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

HSK

252 
WGUS61 KBUF 030552
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
152 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-030700-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-260803T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
152 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch will expire for portions of central and 
western New York, including the following counties, in central New 
York, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New 
York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, 
Wayne and Wyoming.

The flash flooding threat has ended. Therefore, the Flash Flood 
Watch will expire at 2 AM EDT early this morning.

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this cycle, however rain amounts did
fluctuate across the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Sunday night, with isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding possible.

2) Unsettled weather moves back into the region Wednesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected through Sunday night, with isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding possible.

An upper level trough will sharpen across the Great Lakes region
while it merges with a closed low over the Ohio Valley tonight
through Sunday night. A cold front extends from the stacked low to a
weaker area of low pressure in north central Quebec and will slowly
move east and become a focus of heavy showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the weekend.

Warm, moist air advection will occur across the region through
tonight. Cloud cover will increase through this evening with showers
developing across far western NY late tonight. A deep southerly flow
will arrive with a plume of Gulf moisture across the forecast area
Sunday morning. A wavy cold front will settle across far western NY
to the Saint Lawrence River through Sunday afternoon while a surface
low moves across Ohio and into the western Southern Tier. Large
scale ascent will aid diurnally driven convection within a corridor
of high moisture content and deep (>11kft) warm cloud depths.
Southerly winds will be parallel to the front and result in the
potential for backbuilding/training as well as repeated rounds of
storms.

Low pressure is expected to move along the frontal boundary across
the forecast area Sunday night while remaining ahead of the 500mb
trough axis. The core of the highest PWATS will shift east
overnight. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
region with localized areas of heavy rainfall from the Genesee
Valley to the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Based on latest guidance, the axis of heaviest rain is expected
across far western NY to the Saint Lawrence River. Basin average
rainfall amounts will range from 1-2" near this axis to 0.5-1"
farther east. Localized areas of 2-3" can't be ruled out. Due to dry
antecedent conditions across most of the region, opted not to issue
a Flood Watch with this cycle. That being said, isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible through Sunday
night especially for urban areas and poor drainage areas.

Conditions will improve from west to east on Monday. The surface low
is expected to deepen as a shortwave trough drops south from Canada
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible
across the eastern Lake Ontario region through Monday afternoon.
High pressure builds across the region Monday night through Tuesday
night resulting in dry weather.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather moves back into the region
Wednesday through the end of the week.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms return to the region
Wednesday through Friday. An upper level trough will move into the
Great Lakes region and a return flow will bring moisture northward.
The synoptic pattern suggests deep southwesterly flow will persist
during this time. While confidence is low regarding timing and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms, chances are higher in the
afternoon to evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found, with predominately
fair weather...but as we progress through the night we will see an
increase in moisture and rain showers across WNY TAF
sites...especially along a stalling frontal boundary that is
dropping southward from Canada. Times of MVFR flight conditions and
showers will become more likely in the 06Z to 12Z window.

Tomorrow a storm system to our south will further increase moisture
to the TAF region, which will bring a widespread MVFR to low end VFR
flight conditions along with periods of rain showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm. Activity is expected to be heaviest near KIAG/KBUF in
vicinity of the stalling frontal boundary tomorrow...with this
activity persisting through the remainder of the TAF cycle. An
additional wave of heavier rain across the Southern Tier and Genesee
Valley through the afternoon and evening hours may impact KJHW and
KROC. Downburst of rain tomorrow will likely bring IFR visibilities.

Heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms tomorrow evening will
begin to slowly taper down to scattered showers Monday morning with
activity then ending from west to east through the day.

As winds veer to northwest to north behind the storm system later
tomorrow afternoon and through the overnight hours widespread low
ceiling heights of IFR to MVFR are expected to persist. Some patches
of fog are also possible across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR, however afternoon and
evening scattered showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk for
MVFR conditions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A wavy cold front will slowly ease its way east from the
central Great Lakes and across Lakes Erie and Ontario tonight
through Monday. A generally light to modest south to
southeasterly flow out ahead of the front will give way to a
northerly/northeasterly flow of similar strength following its
passage.

Of more concern to marine interests will be the showers and
thunderstorms that are expected to accompany the approach and
passage of the front, some of which could contain locally heavy
downpours/greatly reduced visibility and locally higher winds and
waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...HSK/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-021830-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding
Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>008-013-014-021830-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding
Sunday through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-021830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf