Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Buffalo, NY

459 
WWUS51 KBUF 181919
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NYC029-037-051-055-063-073-181945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-260718T1945Z/
Erie NY-Livingston NY-Niagara NY-Orleans NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE...NORTHERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN NIAGARA...
SOUTHERN ORLEANS...GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES...

At 319 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Henrietta to near Pendleton, moving east at 50
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Chili,
Lockport, Batavia, Amherst, and Tonawanda.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 8 and 12.
 Interstate 90 between exits 46 and 48A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4303 7901 4317 7880 4326 7841 4322 7774
      4322 7738 4304 7737 4304 7748 4295 7748
      4294 7758 4287 7755 4285 7759 4279 7760
      4284 7796 4286 7796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 284DEG 42KT 4303 7764 4307 7863 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SGK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
716 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms (3 of 5) covers the entire
forecast area today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor air quality
today.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this
evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms able to produce damaging
winds and locally heavy rain.

3) Gusty winds are expected northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor
air quality today.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires extends into western NY this morning.
A warm front will move across the region today, and smoke will lift
back northward. Based on the latest HRRR and REFS, surface smoke is
expected to improve across western NY late this morning through
afternoon, and by evening across north-central NY. Air Quality
Alerts remain in effect today.

Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times
through this evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms able to
produce damaging winds and locally heavy rain.

WV imagery shows a potent shortwave trough digging into the Upper
Great Lakes region this morning. The trough will continue to dig
into the Lower Great Lakes region, with a surface low deepening as
it moves from Lake Superior to Quebec today. Isentropic lift and
moisture advection ahead of a warm front has led to showers across
the Lake Ontario region this morning. A few thunderstorms can't be
ruled out in this activity. The warm front will move across the
region this morning. A tight moisture gradient and elevated
instability will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across western NY, mainly staying south of I-90 through mid-morning.
The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase east of
Lake Ontario with the warm front late this morning. There will be
some dry time across western NY mid/late morning.

The region will be get into the warm sector with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s to lower 70s today. The surface low will pass by
to the north while an associated cold front drops south across the
region late this afternoon through this evening. A favorable set-up
for severe weather is expected across the forecast area today. While
smoke will linger today, heating within a moist airmass will result
in destabilization. The wind field will strengthen ahead of the cold
front resulting in 30-40knots of 0-6km shear. A broken line of
storms is expected to form on a pre-frontal trough or differential
heating boundaries as early as noon, with a secondary line of
convection with the front between 2pm-8pm. Numerous severe
thunderstorms are expected today with damaging winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and an isolated tornado as the main threats. The SPC has
issued a Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms.

The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold
front tonight. A few showers may linger into Sunday morning.

Key Message 3...Gusty winds are expected northeast of Lake Erie this
afternoon.

The pressure gradient ahead of the surface low and cold front will
tighten and southwest winds will increase across the region. A 30-40
knot low level jet will move overhead. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are
expected this afternoon, with the strongest wind gusts northeast of
Lake Erie. A few gusts of up to 40 mph area possible northeast of
Lake Erie. The timing of the strongest wind gusts outside of
thunderstorms is noon-4PM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Smoke and numerous thunderstorms will bring flight restrictions to
western and north-central NY through this evening.

A plume of smoke from Canadian wildfires extends into the Lake Erie
region this morning. The area of smoke will lift northward as winds
increase from the southwest today. Visibility is expected to fall to
MVFR in smoke, however a brief period of IFR can't be ruled out.

An area of low pressure is expected to move north of the region
today. A warm front will lift northward and chances of showers and
thunderstorms will increase across western NY this morning. A brief
period of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in showers and
thunderstorms, as well as smoke through late morning. A
southwest wind will increase across the region behind the warm
front today, and wind gusts of 25-35 knots are expected, with
the highest gusts northeast of Lake Erie.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of
a cold front this afternoon through this evening. Some storms may
become severe with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The timing
of the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
between 18-00z. Showers will linger across the Finger Lakes region
into the evening with MVFR conditions across the higher terrain
overnight. VFR conditions are expected across the lower elevations
tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Lingering smoke
possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible with Lingering showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Saturday.

A warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes this morning
with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20 knots. Waves will
build to 3 to 6 feet today.

A cold front will move across the region this afternoon with west
and northwest winds developing behind it, with small craft
conditions developing on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small craft
conditions will come to an end of Lake Erie this evening, while
continuing on Lake Ontario through tonight. Thunderstorms chances
will increase starting this morning with the warm front. Additional
rounds of thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves
through.

High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with
winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM
         EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ045.

&&

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NYZ008-191800-
Lewis-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The primary hazards are damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-191800-
Jefferson-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The primary hazards are damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-011>014-020-021-191800-
Niagara-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-191800-
Orleans-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-191800-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-191800-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>044-062>064-191800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ045-065-SLZ022-024-191800-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The primary hazards are damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Honeoye Falls      42.94N 77.58W
07/18/2026                   Ontario            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree and wire down on Ontario Street.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
132 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNW Bergen            43.14N 77.99W
07/18/2026                   Monroe             NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down across West Sweden Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Brighton          43.11N 77.62W
07/18/2026                   Monroe             NY   Dept of Highways

            Traffic camera showing flooding of 2 lanes
            of I-390 at Henrietta Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Geneva              42.89N 76.99W
07/18/2026                   Ontario            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down, partially across Gambee Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Flash Flood      North Chili             43.12N 77.80W
07/18/2026                   Monroe             NY   Public

            Social media pictures of flooding of
            residential streets in North Chili.

&&