Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 9 PM for much of Western
and Northcentral NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Canadian wildfire smoke will finish moving out of the area
through the afternoon.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening, with
numerous severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Denser Canadian wildfire smoke will finish moving
east of the area through the afternoon.

Thicker smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to exit to the
northeast of our area through the remainder of the afternoon into
early evening. However, some areas may still experience periods of
unhealthy air quality, thus Air Quality Alerts remain in effect
through this evening.

Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 9 PM for much of Western
and Northcentral NY.

Visible imagery and composite radar showing bulk of stronger
convection stretching across southern Lake Ontario, the northern
Niagara Frontier east, and southeast into the Finger Lakes region
just ahead of the main cold front. A strong lake breeze continues
northeast of Lake Erie, and thus has prevented any of this
convection from sagging southward into the Buffalo Metro area, and
this may again continue to be the case through the afternoon. Most
of the storms have been firing on a lake breeze boundary stretching
from from the northern Niagara Frontier east through the counties
liming the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and the Finger Lakes
region. As the cold front presses southeast across the area this
afternoon, this entire line showers and storms (some strong to
severe) will move off to the southeast as well, with the main severe
threat ending by 7 PM this evening as the cold front sags to our
south and east. With this in mind, numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms are still expected through late afternoon/early
evening with damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated
tornado as the main threats. The SPC continues with an Enhanced Risk
(3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across the bulk of the area, with a
Slight Risk now for Jefferson and Lewis counties.

The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold
front later this evening, however a secondary cold front will pass
south across the region later tonight with the possibility for a few
more showers as it passes through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flight restrictions due to smoke will continue to lessen across the
eastern half of the area through early this evening.

An area of low pressure is currently moving east through southern
Quebec with a cold front trailing back across western and
northcentral NY. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
ahead of the cold front as it presses southeast across the area this
afternoon through early this evening. Some storms may become severe
with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The timing of the
greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be through 22-
23Z, although a few showers will linger across eastern areas into
the evening with MVFR conditions across the higher terrain
overnight. VFR conditions are expected across the lower elevations
tonight. A secondary cold front will pass south across the region
later tonight with the possibility for a few more showers as it
passes through.

Otherwise, a stiff southwest breeze will continue across the region,
with wind gusts of 25-35 knots through late in the day, with the
highest gusts northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will lessen through the
overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Lingering smoke
possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible with lingering showers.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon with west
and northwest winds developing behind it, resulting in small craft
conditions developing on Lake Ontario this afternoon. Small craft
conditions ongoing on Lake Erie will come to an end late this
evening, while continuing on Lake Ontario through tonight. Rounds of
thunderstorms will continue through early evening as the cold front
moves through.

High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with
winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ002-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003>006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Brothers/JM
MARINE...HSK/JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NYZ008-191800-
Lewis-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The primary hazards are damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-191800-
Jefferson-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The primary hazards are damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-011>014-020-021-191800-
Niagara-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-191800-
Orleans-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-191800-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-191800-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>044-062>064-191800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ045-065-SLZ022-024-191800-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The primary hazards are damaging winds, heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
322 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Niagara Falls     43.10N 79.04W
07/18/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down across 17th Street.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE Lockport           43.18N 78.68W
07/18/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Market Street closed down due to flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
339 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Flash Flood      2 NW Henrietta          43.08N 77.64W
07/18/2026                   Monroe             NY   Broadcast Media

            Several roads completely flooded around
            Henrietta area including Calkins Road and
            Jefferson Road.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Rain             1 NE Lockport           43.18N 78.68W
07/18/2026  M3.12 Inch       Niagara            NY   Cocorahs

            Spotter Report. Also several roads flooded
            near measurement site.

&&