Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Buffalo, NY

761 
WWUS51 KBUF 092049
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
449 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NYC029-063-092059-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260709T2130Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
449 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND NIAGARA
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 7824 4340 7786 4335 7788 4337 7796
      4336 7799 4313 7799 4310 7801 4305 7846
      4316 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 276DEG 37KT 4334 7817 4307 7849 

$$

NYC037-073-092130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260709T2130Z/
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-
449 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR ORLEANS AND NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 449 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Point Breeze to near Akron, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Albion, Hamlin Beach State Park, Oakfield, Holley, Waterport,
Lakeside Beach State Park, Point Breeze, Kent, and Shelby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 7824 4340 7786 4335 7788 4337 7796
      4336 7799 4313 7799 4310 7801 4305 7846
      4316 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 276DEG 37KT 4334 7817 4307 7849 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Fries

044 
WWUS51 KBUF 092113
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
513 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NYC037-092122-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260709T2130Z/
Genesee NY-
513 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7786 4335 7788 4337 7796 4336 7799
      4314 7800 4313 7801 4315 7817 4338 7804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 262DEG 29KT 4335 7795 4319 7810 

$$

NYC073-092130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260709T2130Z/
Orleans NY-
513 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ORLEANS COUNTY...

At 512 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Hamlin Beach State Park to near Holley, moving east at
35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hamlin Beach State Park, Holley, Clarendon, Kendall, Fancher, and
Morton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7786 4335 7788 4337 7796 4336 7799
      4314 7800 4313 7801 4315 7817 4338 7804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 262DEG 29KT 4335 7795 4319 7810 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Fries

783 
WWUS51 KBUF 092120
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
520 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NYC073-092130-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260709T2130Z/
Orleans NY-
520 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ORLEANS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 530 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7786 4335 7788 4337 7796 4336 7799
      4314 7800 4313 7801 4315 7817 4338 7804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 270DEG 24KT 4335 7791 4319 7806 

$$

Fries

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased potential for isolated severe weather and flash flooding
tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening, with a Marginal Risk in place for most of WNY.
Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce some isolated areas of
flash flooding.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible again tomorrow south of
Lake Ontario. Heavy rainfall and isolated areas of flash flooding
also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and evening, with a Marginal Risk in place for most of
WNY. Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce some isolated areas of
flash flooding.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, showers and thunderstorms have
formed over most of Ontario early this afternoon, with additional
development ongoing along convergence zones off the Great Lakes.
Forecast guidance favors the south shore of Lake Ontario for the
greatest coverage of storms later this afternoon, with more
scattered activity possible elsewhere.

Any mature updrafts will have the potential to produce damaging wind
gusts and large hail, owing to 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. The
limiting factor today will be instability, and the presence of a mid
level cap, noted on the 12z BUF sounding.

Additionally, heavy rain will fall from these storms as PWATs
increase to almost 1.75", and if any training of cells occurs,
isolated pockets of flash flooding will be possible.

Later tonight, the cold front will move southeast across the area
producing additional showers and scattered thunderstorms. Although
the risk of severe weather will be low, heavy rainfall will still be
a risk with any thunderstorms.

Key Message 2...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible again
tomorrow south of Lake Ontario. Heavy rainfall and isolated areas of
flash flooding also possible.

Latest guidance this morning has trended towards a slower passage of
the cold front to our south and into PA. This will keep low and mid
level moisture in place, and with surface heating later in the day,
moderate instability is likely to develop on the order of 1500-2000
J/kg MUCAPEs. Deep layer shear will be weaker (20-30 kts), but still
enough to sustain robust convection, which will keep the potential
for damaging wind gusts and large hail in the forecast tomorrow
south of Lake Ontario.

With a high PWAT airmass still in place across the Southern Tier,
heavy rainfall from storms will bring the potential for isolated
areas of flash flooding, especially in terrain areas and locations
that saw heavy rain earlier this week. Showers and thunderstorms
will taper off from north to south with loss of heating tomorrow
evening, as the cold front finally pushes south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing early this afternoon
along lake breeze boundaries inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario with
reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions most likely to occur near KIAG,
KROC, and KART through early this evening. Showers will linger
overnight along the cold frontal passage in addition to lowering
ceilings to MVFR/IFR levels. As the cold front slowly moves south,
additional showers will develop in the morning along with
thunderstorms midday that may lead to further flight restrictions.

Outlook...

Friday Afternoon...Additional showers and thunderstorms likely at
times across interior sections with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings
gradually improving through the afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A brief period of 10-15 knot winds ahead of an approaching cold
front may cause some light to low-end moderate chop on the lakes
this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, mainly light winds
and negligible waves are expected through the end of the work week.

A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible on Lake Ontario later
this afternoon into the early evening, capable of producing locally
higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-100715-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
the early evening, with the main threat being strong winds. There is
also a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall this afternoon through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-100715-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across Lake Ontario, the
Saint Lawrence River, and the Niagara River this afternoon into the
early evening. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing
locally higher winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-100715-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
422 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Sanborn           43.12N 78.94W
07/09/2026                   Niagara            NY   911 Call Center

            Wires down.

0404 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WSW Sanborn           43.11N 78.95W
07/09/2026  M49 MPH          Niagara            NY   ASOS

&&

EAJ