Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Buffalo, NY

267 
WWUS51 KBUF 092004
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NYC037-073-092014-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-260709T2030Z/
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-
404 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ORLEANS AND
NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened. Therefore, the 
warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7864 4341 7846 4313 7851 4296 7893
      4296 7896 4298 7901 4302 7902 4306 7900
      4308 7908 4311 7906 4312 7907 4315 7904
      4325 7906 4330 7909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 282DEG 38KT 4342 7884 4319 7890 4312 7907 

$$

NYC029-063-092030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-260709T2030Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
404 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES...

At 404 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 11 miles northwest of Newfane to near Sanborn to
Niagara Falls, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Lockport, Tonawanda, Amherst, Grand
Island, Newfane, Pendleton, Lewiston, and Youngstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7864 4341 7846 4313 7851 4296 7893
      4296 7896 4298 7901 4302 7902 4306 7900
      4308 7908 4311 7906 4312 7907 4315 7904
      4325 7906 4330 7909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 282DEG 38KT 4342 7884 4319 7890 4312 7907 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

EAJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased potential for isolated severe weather and flash flooding
tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening, with a Marginal Risk in place for most of WNY.
Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce some isolated areas of
flash flooding.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible again tomorrow south of
Lake Ontario. Heavy rainfall and isolated areas of flash flooding
also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and evening, with a Marginal Risk in place for most of
WNY. Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce some isolated areas of
flash flooding.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, showers and thunderstorms have
formed over most of Ontario early this afternoon, with additional
development ongoing along convergence zones off the Great Lakes.
Forecast guidance favors the south shore of Lake Ontario for the
greatest coverage of storms later this afternoon, with more
scattered activity possible elsewhere.

Any mature updrafts will have the potential to produce damaging wind
gusts and large hail, owing to 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. The
limiting factor today will be instability, and the presence of a mid
level cap, noted on the 12z BUF sounding.

Additionally, heavy rain will fall from these storms as PWATs
increase to almost 1.75", and if any training of cells occurs,
isolated pockets of flash flooding will be possible.

Later tonight, the cold front will move southeast across the area
producing additional showers and scattered thunderstorms. Although
the risk of severe weather will be low, heavy rainfall will still be
a risk with any thunderstorms.

Key Message 2...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible again
tomorrow south of Lake Ontario. Heavy rainfall and isolated areas of
flash flooding also possible.

Latest guidance this morning has trended towards a slower passage of
the cold front to our south and into PA. This will keep low and mid
level moisture in place, and with surface heating later in the day,
moderate instability is likely to develop on the order of 1500-2000
J/kg MUCAPEs. Deep layer shear will be weaker (20-30 kts), but still
enough to sustain robust convection, which will keep the potential
for damaging wind gusts and large hail in the forecast tomorrow
south of Lake Ontario.

With a high PWAT airmass still in place across the Southern Tier,
heavy rainfall from storms will bring the potential for isolated
areas of flash flooding, especially in terrain areas and locations
that saw heavy rain earlier this week. Showers and thunderstorms
will taper off from north to south with loss of heating tomorrow
evening, as the cold front finally pushes south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing early this afternoon
along lake breeze boundaries inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario with
reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions most likely to occur near KIAG,
KROC, and KART through early this evening. Showers will linger
overnight along the cold frontal passage in addition to lowering
ceilings to MVFR/IFR levels. As the cold front slowly moves south,
additional showers will develop in the morning along with
thunderstorms midday that may lead to further flight restrictions.

Outlook...

Friday Afternoon...Additional showers and thunderstorms likely at
times across interior sections with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings
gradually improving through the afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A brief period of 10-15 knot winds ahead of an approaching cold
front may cause some light to low-end moderate chop on the lakes
this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, mainly light winds
and negligible waves are expected through the end of the work week.

A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible on Lake Ontario later
this afternoon into the early evening, capable of producing locally
higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-100715-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
the early evening, with the main threat being strong winds. There is
also a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall this afternoon through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-100715-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across Lake Ontario, the
Saint Lawrence River, and the Niagara River this afternoon into the
early evening. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing
locally higher winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-100715-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
301 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf