Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Buffalo, NY

164 
WWUS51 KBUF 260320
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1120 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

NYC013-260330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-260626T0330Z/
Chautauqua NY-
1120 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

At 1120 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Silver Creek to 9 miles northeast of Long Point
State Park, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Silver Creek, Mayville, Long Point State Park,
Chautauqua Institution, Lake Erie State Park, SUNY Fredonia,
Chautauqua, and Portland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 58 and 59.
 Interstate 86 between exits 6 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4228 7947 4244 7950 4253 7938 4254 7934
      4257 7927 4260 7918 4259 7913 4257 7914
      4256 7909 4255 7909 4254 7906 4223 7906
      4215 7934 4213 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 260DEG 33KT 4261 7923 4228 7927 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SGK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some fog to the forecast overnight through early Friday
morning, mainly across the Niagara Frontier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this evening, then
some patchy fog and low clouds overnight through early Friday
morning.

2) Trending warmer this weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rounds of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
through this evening, then some patchy fog and low clouds overnight
through early Friday morning.

The widespread rain from earlier today is exiting stage right across
eastern NY early this evening. A few more scattered showers are
developing across Western NY early this evening. The best coverage
of showers through the first half of tonight will be east of Lake
Ontario where the best large scale ascent and moisture is found.
Farther west across Western NY and the Finger Lakes, a few scattered
showers will continue this evening, along with a chance of a few
widely scattered thunderstorms from both homegrown activity and the
weakening remnants of upstream convection arriving from the west.

What little severe weather risk there was today is even lower now,
given the impacts of extensive clouds and rain today on stability.
Modestly unstable air is attempting to develop and advect into
Western NY early this evening, but the loss of daytime heating will
quickly end this modest destabilization. There is more than adequate
deep layer shear available, but the lack of instability and poor
lapse rates will likely be too much to overcome.

Overnight, any remaining showers will mostly end from west to east,
with a few spotty showers possibly lingering east of Lake Ontario
through Friday morning. High-res model guidance and statistical
guidance suggests an area of low stratus and fog may develop across
Western NY late tonight through early Friday morning, especially
across the Niagara Frontier. Added areas of fog to account for this
potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Trending warmer this weekend and into next week.

A mid to upper level ridge will begin to build across the Great
Lakes this weekend before shifting east into the Northeastern
portions of the CONUS through next week. Temperatures will gradually
increase by the end of the weekend and into early next week. Heat
and humidity will then increase further through the middle of next
week, which may result in the potential for heat-related headlines
as the risk for dangerous heat indices increase. There continues to
be some spread between ensemble members for this period of warmer
weather. This is likely due to the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorm both Tuesday and Wednesday that could help bring
some short-term relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The widespread rain from earlier today is exiting stage right across
eastern NY early this evening. A few more scattered showers are
developing across Western NY early this evening. The best coverage
of showers through the first half of tonight will be east of Lake
Ontario where the best large scale ascent and moisture is found.
Farther west across Western NY and the Finger Lakes, a few scattered
showers will continue this evening, along with a chance of a few
widely scattered thunderstorms from both homegrown activity and the
weakening remnants of upstream convection arriving from the west.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the
night, with any CIG/VSBY restrictions localized to spotty heavier
showers.

Overnight, any remaining showers will mostly end from west to east,
with a few spotty showers possibly lingering east of Lake Ontario
through Friday morning. High-res model guidance and statistical
guidance suggests an area of low stratus and fog may develop across
the region late tonight through Friday morning with areas of
MVFR/IFR CIGS. The best chance of fog appears to be across the
Niagara Frontier including KBUF and KIAG with areas of IFR VSBY
possible.

The fog and low stratus will mix out by mid to late morning with a
return to VFR conditions for the afternoon. Friday will be mainly
dry, with any showers and thunderstorms limited to the Saint
Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks mainly east and north of
KART.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...VFR in most areas. Some brief/local
restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the North Country and Southern Tier. Patchy fog and local IFR
possible late Friday night through early Saturday morning.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain well below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Friday and into the weekend with a weak pressure
gradient in place across the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
700 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-262300-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
700 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-262300-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
700 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock