Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
104 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026

- An enhanced risk (levels 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms is
  in effect for Wednesday into early Thursday. Threats include
  isolated, brief tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

- There is a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of flash flooding with
  the thunderstorm activity Wednesday evening through Thursday
  morning, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026

A cold front will continue to move into the area through the rest
of the night into Thursday morning. Timing is generally around
1 pm in the far northwest, with a slow progression of the line of
storms towards the south and southeast. CAMs have been coming
into better agreement with timing, and show isolated storms
moving ahead of the main line. Instability is between 1500-
2500 J/kg with these initial storms, and 0-1 km shear is mild,
though 0-6 km shear is enough to support strong storms.  These
isolated storms could easily rotate and produce damaging winds
and a tornado, though the threat may be slightly lower than the
storms through the late afternoon and early evening.

With strong southerly flow, PW values will be around 2 inches or
higher today through the morning. This is much greater than max
for this time of year climatologically, and with the steering
flow parallel to the boundary, storms are likely to train over
the same areas, producing high rain rates and high rainfall
accumulations. The highest totals look to be in the southeast
where the greatest concentration of training storms is expected.
Values of 4-5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in
any stronger storms. Any storm will likely produce rain rates
enough to reduce visibilities so driving could become hazardous.
Flooding is a concern through the night, especially in those
training storms.

As the line moves south and east, individual storms are expected
to move along that line. Low LCLs, enough instability, and an
increase in 0-1 km shear to 40-50 kts will support an increased tornado
threat. Mid level winds increase from a strong mid level jet,
which causes that increase in low level shear, and will also
support stronger updraft and longer lived storms. CAMs have that
line moving into the I85 area after midnight, with a concentration
of weather in the southeast through the early morning.
Instability is slightly weaker in the southeast, values topping
around 1000-1500 j/kg, but shear will remain strong, with
damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat continuing.

Thursday morning, the front will continue to the south and east,
and should push all activity south of the area by sunrise.
Northerly flow will settle over the area, bringing drier and
slightly cooler air, as high pressure continues to build over the
southeast. By Friday evening, a shortwave approaches from the
south and west, bringing the next chance for rain through the
night Friday into Saturday. A low pressure system will move
across the Ohio Valley through the latter half of the weekend,
with a frontal boundary bringing widespread activity through
Sunday. Instability will be higher on Sunday, and shear will be
moderate, allowing for strong atoms to develop, though potential
for any severe storms remains low at this time.

The front will push south and east through night, with rain
decreasing through Monday morning, and northwest flow bringing
drier air to the state through the beginning of the work week.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026

Isolated thunderstorms will move into areas north of I85 through
the afternoon and early evening, ahead of a main line of storms.
Any storm moving over a TAF site will produce high rain rates to
drop visibilities to IFR or LIFR, and enough low level moisture
will be available for IFR ceilings overnight. Thunderstorms
should move south with rain lingering over each TAF site through
the early morning, before northerly flow brings dry air and a
decrease in rain through mid morning Thursday.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent
observations.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring
plenty of rain through the state tonight and Thursday morning. In
total, some locations are likely to see 2-4 inches of rain during
this timeframe, with 4-5 inches possible in the southeast.  After
a brief break in rain Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon, rain returns through the weekend. Given the higher
MinRH values and upcoming rain, fire weather concerns remain
little to none at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  72  45  73 / 100  20   0   0
Anniston    60  72  48  73 / 100  40   0   0
Birmingham  60  72  51  74 / 100  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  60  75  51  75 / 100  10   0   0
Calera      61  75  51  75 / 100  30   0   0
Auburn      66  77  55  73 / 100  80   0  10
Montgomery  66  77  54  74 /  90  70   0  20
Troy        67  78  56  74 /  80  80  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
301 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Old Spring Hill    32.46N 87.81W
05/06/2026                   Marengo            AL   Broadcast Media

            Trees down across highway 69 south of
            Gallion.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
301 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ALZ033-040-062045-
Dallas AL-Perry AL-
301 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PERRY AND CENTRAL
DALLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion Junction, or 7 miles east of Uniontown, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Selma, Valley Grande, Uniontown, Selmont-West Selmont, Orrville,
Bogue Chitto, Vaiden, Old Cahaba Park, Memorial Stadium, Marion
Junction, Dallas County Horse Arena, Potter Station, Skyharbor
Airport, Perry County Correctional Center, Summerfield, Hazen, Craig
Field Aiport, Selma Drag Strip, Suttle, and Edmund Pettus Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8752 3255 8752 3259 8698 3229 8696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 264DEG 31KT 3242 8738

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
335 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ALZ033-035-040>042-062115-
Chilton AL-Autauga AL-Lowndes AL-Dallas AL-Perry AL-
335 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT AUTAUGA...SOUTH CENTRAL
CHILTON...EAST CENTRAL PERRY...NORTHWESTERN LOWNDES AND NORTHEASTERN
DALLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Paul M Grist State Park, or 7 miles west of Valley
Grande, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Selma, Valley Grande, Selmont-West Selmont, Autaugaville, White Hall,
Orrville, Billingsley, Booth, Vida Junction, Gardner Island, Old
Cahaba Park, Dallas County Horse Arena, Mulberry, Paul M Grist State
Park, Memorial Stadium, Burnsville, Potter Station, Tyler, Radford,
and Robert F. Henry Lock And Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
south central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8725 3263 8724 3273 8658 3234 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 263DEG 31KT 3255 8711

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ALZ011-014-015-062115-
Walker AL-Winston AL-Marion AL-
345 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WALKER...
SOUTHEASTERN MARION AND WESTERN WINSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brilliant, or 7 miles north of Winfield, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winfield, Lynn, Double Springs, Brilliant, Nauvoo, Gu-
Win, Houston Recreational Area, Camp McDowell, Ashbank, Poplar
Springs, Corinth Rec Area, Lake Buttahatchee, Winston Free State
Barn, Smith Lake, Twin, Natural Bridge, Tucker, Hullett Branch, Clear
Creek, and Winston County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
northwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 8785 3410 8791 3427 8732 3401 8724
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 255DEG 41KT 3403 8780

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

44

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