Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

 - Strong to severe weather moves through overnight. There's
   increasing concern for widespread damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes.

 - Increasing chances of snow mixing with rain or totally
   switching over this morning. Impacts are not expected. but
   there is a low probability some minor accumulation in the far
   northeast.

 - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures
   Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

Ongoing threat for severe weather has started across central
Alabama. We are noticing that that the line is behind by roughly
an hour, so will adjust the timing a touch. We should begin to see
the winds pick up soon along the line as the confluence band
begins to increase across the area and the low level jet. We will
need to keep an eye out for surges along the line with an
increased wind threat an brief spin ups. So far hail has not been
a huge concern along the line but has been high with discreet
rouge cells just ahead of the line. We are seeing cloud tops still
cooling all throughout the line, so look for the severe threat to
pick up over the next several hours. After 1 AM, guidance still
is showing that a second area of confluence developing in the I-85
corridor just ahead of the main line. There were signs of that
development already with showers and storms in Mobile County,
Alabama. The storms have since dissipated but gives a good
depiction of where the zone could develop. Look for the line will
exit the southeast by 7 am.

Behind the line a potent trough will slide into the area on the
backside. There will be plenty of moisture to deal with as this
zone works through. With temperatures dropping into the 30s behind
the line there will be a short period in which snow will mix with
rain and then may transition to snow itself across the north after
daylight. The good news to all of this is that ground temperatures
are well above freezing, so any snow that does accumulate would
melt quickly, so impacts are not expected. The best chances for
sow will be in the northeast late morning as the axis of the
trough slides through with the max vorticity over ANB and GAD. If
we were really cold for a day or so, there would be a potential
for impactful accumulations in the northeast but we have been
quite the opposite, so any impact would be minimal at best.
Advisories at this time are not anticipated.

Behind the trough the cold air will really filter into the region
and we will see temperatures drop into the 20s Tuesday morning. A
widespread freeze warning is in effect with another freeze warning
likely for Wednesday morning needed as well. As far as impactful
weather a ridge will build over the area through the end of the
week. There will be a clipper system slide through the east on
Tuesday, but guidance shows the axis of it remains to our east.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026

Showers and storms will slide through over the next 6 to 10
hours. Have added in tempo wording to account for the storms. May
need to add in some prob30 for snow showers at BHM and EET after
15z, but only for a brief reduction in visibility. No impacts on
the surface is expected. VFR conditions expected after 21z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong cold front that will move through Central AL this morning.
This front will bring widespread rain, but also widespread
damaging winds. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very dry with
critical Min RHs for much of the area both days with increasing
moisture not expected until Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     38  25  47  26 /  50   0   0   0
Anniston    42  26  48  28 /  40   0   0   0
Birmingham  39  28  48  31 /  30   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  41  26  51  31 /  30   0   0   0
Calera      39  26  51  30 /  30   0   0   0
Auburn      48  29  50  31 /  60   0   0   0
Montgomery  46  29  51  30 /  40   0   0   0
Troy        47  29  51  28 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>