Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
558 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

 - There is a medium to high chance for severe weather tonight
   into Monday morning. There's increasing concern for widespread
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

 - Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm system will result in
   winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected this
   afternoon and tonight.

 - There is a very high chance (>90%) for freezing temperatures
   Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for all of Central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Widespread severe weather is expected late this evening through the
overnight hours across Central Alabama.

Through the remainder of this afternoon and evening, the winds are
expected to gradually increase ahead of this system. There's a
medium to high chance for winds to gust as high as 40 mph well ahead
of the line of storms later tonight. This could cause sporadic
downed trees and power outages.

We'll be watching a line of thunderstorms later this afternoon move
through the ArkLaMiss and into Central AL. This line is associated
with a very strong cold front sweeping through the region. Latest
guidance continues to show a rich environment with ample
instability,  strong low level shear, and deep layer shear. With
this setup, a robust QLCS with the capability of producing
widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes is expected to move
through Central AL between 9pm and 6am.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop substantially (as much as a
10 degree drop in 2-3 hours). Guidance has been persistent in
bringing through a secondary surge of moisture as the main upper
trough pivots through the region. With this, there's at least a low
to medium chance for a few snow flurries Monday morning. Given the
light amounts, warm surface temperatures, and gusty winds, the
chance for any accumulation or impacts to travel in any way is very
low.

The main story Monday will be the falling temperatures through the
day. Daytime highs may only top out in the 40s depending on how much
sunshine we get, but even that may have limited warming capability
with the cold air advection through the day.

There's a very high chance for widespread freezing conditions
Tuesday morning as temperatures fall into the 20s area-wide. There's
at least a low chance for a few of our colder locations across the
north to hit hard freeze conditions, so prepare to take measures
today or tomorrow to protect any sensitive crops or vegetation.
Freezing temperatures are expected again Wednesday morning before we
start to see a gradual warming trend Wednesday through Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

An organized line of severe storms will move into the region
closer to 16/03z, will all terminals carrying TSRA during the
overnight hours. Quick drops in CIGS and VIS are to be expected
with the heaviest storm activity, with winds quickly shifting to
the W/NW behind the line. Conditions will generally improve past
16/18z, with all terminals returning to VFR conditions past then.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty southerly winds are expected through the remainder of today
ahead of a strong cold front that will move through Central AL later
tonight through early Monday morning. This front will bring
widespread rain, but also widespread damaging winds. Tuesday and
Wednesday look to be very dry with critical Min RHs for much of the
area both days with increasing moisture not expected until Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     34  39  24  46 / 100  40   0   0
Anniston    37  42  26  47 /  90  40   0   0
Birmingham  37  39  28  48 / 100  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  37  42  26  51 / 100  20   0   0
Calera      36  42  26  50 / 100  30   0   0
Auburn      43  48  29  50 /  90  70   0   0
Montgomery  41  46  28  51 /  80  50   0   0
Troy        42  48  28  52 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

&&

DISCUSSION...25/Owen
AVIATION.../44/