Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
524 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

 - There is a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) across West-Central Alabama
   and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) across much of the region for
   severe storms this afternoon and evening. Hail and wind are the
   main threats with this activity.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe Storms...
Issued at 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing over the last few
hours. A few of these have been severe. Our strongest storm so far
looked to ride along the northern periphery of a theta-e gradient,
right into Central AL. We will be assessing the damage associated
with that storm Friday morning. Latest hi-res guidance continues
to hint at these storms congealing into a line and moving south
through the night. This will also lead to an increase flood threat
as the storms slow down. Signs still point to a few pockets of
2-3" through the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

As rather dreary day is unfolding across Central Alabama as light to
moderate rainfall continues ahead of an approaching cold front.
Latest satellite imagery reveals a few breaks opening up in this
expansive low level cloud deck. This will allow us to destabilize
through the day. Recent runs of the HRRR hint at CAPE values nearing
1000-1300 J/kg this afternoon across Central AL. Increased
instability along with steep mid level lapse rates and bulk shear
from 40-50 knots will create an environment favorable for strong
to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be our primary risks. SPC has introduced a
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for our western counties while
maintaining a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for much of the area.

In addition to the severe threat, we will need to closely monitor
our hydro threat. Soils should be able to handle most of this
activity. However, forecast soundings suggest a deep warm cloud
depth which is indicative of high rainfall rates. Recent hi-res
guidance (HRRR/RRFS-A/HREF LPMM) hint at a few pockets of 2-3" of
rainfall late this evening into early Friday morning. Exact
placement will be heavily dependent on where the boundary
slows/stalls and our low level moisture convergence is maximized.
This would lead to isolated flooding concerns.

Rainfall will gradually come to an end through the day Friday as the
front begins to fizzle out and weak mid level ridging attempts to
regain control. Rain chances return to the forecast early next week
as another front and H5 shortwave head our way.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026

A mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings are in place across the region at
this time. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing, generally
north of BHM over the last few hours. This activity will gradually
move south through the evening and overnight hours. As this
happens, MVFR ceilings will become more widespread with brief
periods of IFR, especially with any passing shower/storm. Rain
will gradually taper off through the morning hours. Ceilings will
be slow to improve with VFR not returning at BHM/EET/TCL until
15Z. AUO/MGM maintain MVFR through the end of this TAF cycle.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Plentiful moisture will remain in place this afternoon, keeping
min RH values around 65-80%. Drier air gradually filters into the
region Friday into the weekend with RH values falling to 30-40%.
Moisture begins to recover early next week with min RH values back
into the 40-50% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     47  71  43  73 /  60  10   0   0
Anniston    50  70  47  73 /  80  20  10   0
Birmingham  51  71  46  73 /  80  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  51  73  46  76 /  80  10   0   0
Calera      51  72  46  74 /  80  20  10   0
Auburn      56  68  53  71 /  90  50  20  10
Montgomery  58  71  53  73 /  90  40  10   0
Troy        58  71  53  73 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
518 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

ALZ012-022-262345-
Pickens AL-Lamar AL-
518 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PICKENS AND SOUTHERN
LAMAR COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CST...

At 518 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ethelsville, or 10 miles east of Columbus, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Reform, Millport, Ethelsville, Ashcraft Corner, Forest, Lubbub,
Macedonia, Melborne, and Shaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 8827 3354 8795 3353 8794 3353 8785
      3341 8784 3340 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 265DEG 21KT 3346 8822

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
523 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

ALZ012-013-270015-
Fayette AL-Lamar AL-
523 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CST...

At 523 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blooming Grove, or near Fayette, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Blooming Grove, Bevill State College Fayette, Fayette County
Public Lake, and Richard Arthur Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 8801 3380 8798 3375 8768 3364 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 280DEG 18KT 3374 8793

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
527 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

ALZ027-028-270000-
Clay AL-Talladega AL-
527 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND NORTH
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CST...

At 527 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waldo, or 9 miles east of Talladega, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ironaton and Gunthertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 8602 3349 8599 3341 8577 3330 8581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 287DEG 17KT 3339 8594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
528 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

ALZ020-270000-
Cherokee AL-
528 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CST...

At 528 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forney, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Forney, Moshat, Eastern Weiss Lake, Coloma, and Howells Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8544 3400 8541 3404 8565 3419 8562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 287DEG 27KT 3409 8552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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