Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1154 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

 - There is a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) across West-Central Alabama
   and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) across much of the region for
   severe storms this afternoon and evening. Hail and wind are the
   main threats with this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

As rather dreary day is unfolding across Central Alabama as light to
moderate rainfall continues ahead of an approaching cold front.
Latest satellite imagery reveals a few breaks opening up in this
expansive low level cloud deck. This will allow us to destabilize
through the day. Recent runs of the HRRR hint at CAPE values nearing
1000-1300 J/kg this afternoon across Central AL. Increased
instability along with steep mid level lapse rates and bulk shear
from 40-50 knots will create an environment favorable for strong
to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds look to be our primary risks. SPC has introduced a
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for our western counties while
maintaining a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for much of the area.

In addition to the severe threat, we will need to closely monitor
our hydro threat. Soils should be able to handle most of this
activity. However, forecast soundings suggest a deep warm cloud
depth which is indicative of high rainfall rates. Recent hi-res
guidance (HRRR/RRFS-A/HREF LPMM) hint at a few pockets of 2-3" of
rainfall late this evening into early Friday morning. Exact
placement will be heavily dependent on where the boundary
slows/stalls and our low level moisture convergence is maximized.
This would lead to isolated flooding concerns.

Rainfall will gradually come to an end through the day Friday as the
front begins to fizzle out and weak mid level ridging attempts to
regain control. Rain chances return to the forecast early next week
as another front and H5 shortwave head our way.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026

Poor aviation conditions are expected through much of this TAF
cycle. BHM/EET/TCL are all experiencing MVFR cigs. AUO/MGM will
likely fluctuate between VFR/MVFR through this evening. -SHRA
will continue through this afternoon with increasing chances for
TSRA and IFR ceilings late this afternoon and evening. Once IFR
ceilings develop, they are likely to remain in place through the
night. Rain chances will gradually diminish overnight into Friday
morning. Ceilings will be slow to improve with IFR improving to
MVFR by 15Z Friday.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Plentiful moisture will remain in place this afternoon, keeping
min RH values around 65-80%. Drier air gradually filters into the
region Friday into the weekend with RH values falling to 30-40%.
Moisture begins to recover early next week with min RH values back
into the 40-50% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  47  71  43 /  80  60  10   0
Anniston    67  50  70  47 /  90  80  20  10
Birmingham  69  51  71  46 /  80  80  10  10
Tuscaloosa  71  51  73  46 /  80  80  10   0
Calera      70  51  72  46 /  80  80  20  10
Auburn      69  56  68  53 /  70  90  50  20
Montgomery  74  58  71  53 /  60  90  40  10
Troy        75  58  71  53 /  40  90  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

ALZ017-024-262145-
Jefferson AL-Blount AL-
255 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CST...

At 254 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arkadelphia, or 9 miles northeast of Sumiton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Clay, Pinson, Warrior, Kimberly, Morris, Trafford, Hayden,
County Line, Arkadelphia, Inland Lake, Palmerdale, Smoke Rise,
Village Springs, Remlap, Rickwood Caverns, and Partridge Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 8655 3380 8655 3380 8658 3377 8658
      3376 8655 3367 8656 3377 8702 3379 8700
      3379 8697 3380 8697 3380 8695 3387 8696
      3386 8695 3387 8692 3391 8692 3392 8689
      3393 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 286DEG 28KT 3385 8695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
302 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     Hail             2 SSW Powellville       33.88N 87.12W
02/26/2026  E1.00 Inch       Walker             AL   Public

            Social media photos of quarter-size hail in
            the Pineywoods area.

&&

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