Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
657 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon through this evening.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the
  week into early next week, with many locations exceeding 100
  degrees Saturday through Monday. An Excessive Heat Watch is
  in effect from Saturday through Monday.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through the hot spell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current surface analysis places cool front stretching through
northwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places westerly
flow over our area, with a few short waves noted in the flow.
Over our area, a few weak showers continue to linger over parts
of Wells and Foster Counties.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, aforementioned
frontal boundary combined the short wave will serve as the
focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon into
tonight. The question is how much convection will develop given
the modest forcing. With that said, a very unstable atmosphere
will be in place, with noted RAP CAPE values around 2000-4000
J/KG through central North Dakota/James River Valley at the time
expected convective initiation. Deep layer shear will be ample
for rotating updrafts, and oriented perpendicular to the frontal
boundary suggesting rapidly developing supercell thunderstorms
will be possible. The greatest chance for scattered severe
weather did shift east a bit from earlier covering parts of
southwest North Dakota, along with most of central ND and the
James River Valley. Storms then push off to the east through the
night.

Thereafter, focus shifts towards the hot temperatures expected
to plague our area this weekend into next week. Broad upper
level high builds over the central and much of the western CONUS
this weekend, remaining into the upcoming work week. High
temperatures climb into the triple digits over many locations
on Saturday, and over most of the area on Sunday, with triple
digits remaining over many locations into Monday. With this, dew
points remain around 60, so an elevated humidity factor will
come into play. Therefore, the Extreme Heat Watch remains in
effect. With the upper high in place, expect mainly dry weather,
but given the extreme temperatures would not be surprised to
see a random thunderstorm pop up somewhere during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Appears the main potential for thunderstorms will focus in the
BIS and JMS terminals space this evening, and would put
convection as "quite likely" for JMS. As such, have converted
JMS to a TEMPO group honing in on the 02-05Z time frame. BIS is
roughly the same time period, but it's possible storms stay just
S/SE, so continued this as a PROB30 group, for now. Gusty and
variable winds will be expected with storms this evening. Most
model guidance clears activity out by around midnight. These
locations may develop some fog around dawn, with slightly higher
chances for JMS than BIS. Rest of the day Friday will be VFR
with light E to SE winds.

For MOT...have removed the mention of thunderstorms from the
latest TAFs as it appears the primary area of development will
remain just off to the E/SE. A weak front can be seen on visible
satellite and area observations, which will switch winds around
to the N. Speeds will remain light, though. Main concern
thereafter is the potential for fog to develop in this area, as
well. Have added some 5SM BR to indicate this potential, but if
the fog indeed develops, VSBYs could easily be worse, mainly in
the 11-13Z time frame. Once any fog burns off by mid morning,
rest of the period looks to be VFR with light Erly winds.

For XWA and DIK...expect VFR conditions and generally light
winds through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday
night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-
031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Thies NWS Hastings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062-101900-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-Northwest Ward-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
Western McLean-Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-
Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 /100 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
western and central North Dakota this afternoon and this evening.
The main hazards from any storm that becomes severe will be large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for all of western and
central North Dakota from midday Saturday through Monday evening.
See www.weather.gov/bis for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
659 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Hail             3 NE Silva              48.19N 99.87W
07/09/2026  E2.50 Inch       Pierce             ND   Public

            Most hail was quarters to golf balls, a few
            were tennis ball.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
710 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Hail             9 SSE New Leipzig       46.25N 101.88W
07/09/2026  E1.75 Inch       Grant              ND   Public

            A few golf balls.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
723 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     Tornado          4 SW Hamberg            47.72N 99.58W
07/09/2026                   Wells              ND   Broadcast Media

            Tornado on ground from 7:16 PM to 7:18 PM.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
744 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Hail             4 S Wellsburg           47.78N 99.76W
07/09/2026  M1.25 Inch       Wells              ND   Public

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>